Core Views
Estonia is well on the road to recovery, with real GDP growth forecast to accelerate to 5.0% in 2011, before falling back to 4.7% in 2012. Exports will play a key role driving growth through the medium term (2011-2015), with robust economic growth in Sweden, Germany,
Finland and Russia helping to bolster the Estonian economy.
While lagging the external sector, Estonian private consumption and capital investment prospects are improving with the growth of
labour, credit and retail markets, which are all forecast to accelerate in 2011.
Rebalancing and macroeconomic restructuring has fundamentally improved Estonia’s risk profile. The systemic risks facing the economy
in 2008-2009 have been substantially mitigated.
Major Forecast Changes
We have revised up Estonian growth in 2011 to 5.0% (from 4.1%).
Key Risk To Outlook
The Estonian banking system remains vulnerable, with non-performing loan rates near historic highs. An external shock could delay the recovery process.
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Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Major Forecast Changes5
Key Risk To Outlook5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Ratings 7
Long-Term Political Outlook 8
Few Risks To Structural Stability Over Long Term
Estonia is among the most structurally stable countries of all emerging markets, as reflected in its very high
score in BMI’s long-term political risk rating of 863 (out of 100)
Table: Political Overview 8
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 11
SWOT Analysis 11
BMI Economic Risk Ratings 11
Economic Activity 12
Growth To Slow, But Remain Robust
Estonia is well on the road to recovery and we reiterate our view that the economy will be the top performing
in the Baltic region for many years to come
Table: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 13
Balance Of Payments 14
Current Account To Return To Deficit
As Estonia’s economic recovery matures and domestic demand bounces back, we expect the country’s current
account to flip into deficit
Table: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (Euro) 14
Monetary Policy 16
Inflation To Moderate
We maintain our disinflationary outlook over the medium term for Estonia With commodity price growth set to
stall in H211, we forecast headline inflation to fall steadily to average 30% over the long term
Banking Sector 17
Still Deleveraging But Recovery Ahead
Asset contraction in the Estonian banking sector has further to go, though we maintain that growth will resume
by the end of 2011
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 19
The Estonian Economy To 2020 19
Trend Growth To Average Much Less Over 2015-2020
Trend average growth in Estonia is forecast to average 31% between 2015 and 2020, which is well below the
82% from 2000-2007
Table: ESTONIA Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts 19
Chapter 4: Business Environment 21
SWOT Analysis 21
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings 21
Business Environment Outlook 22
Institutions 22
Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings 22
Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating 23
Infrastructure 24
Table: Labour Force Quality 24
Table: Emerging Europe – Annual FDI Inflows 25
Market Orientation 26
Table: Trade And Investment Ratings 27
Operational Risk 28
Table: Top Exports 28
Chapter 5: Key Sectors 31
Pharmaceuticals 31
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2007-2015 33
Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2007-2015 33
Table: Air Freight, 2008-2015 36
Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2008-2015 36
Table: Rail Freight, 2008-2015 37
Table: Road Freight, 2008-2015 37
Other Key Sectors 38
Table: ESTONIA Autos Sector Key Indicators 38
Table: ESTONIA Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators 38
Table: ESTONIA Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators 38
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions 39
Global Outlook 39
Second Half Risks
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS 39
Table: EMERGING MARKETS AGGREGATE GROWTH 40
Table: DEVELOPED STATES REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST 41
Table: REAL GDP GROWTH CONSENSUS FORECASTS 41
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