European New Car Market: From Recession to Recovery

Introduction

As some of the key European markets witnessed double digit declines (during the downturn), various new trends emerged in the automotive industry. The report discusses the changes that swept the market in the downturn and how these will shape the future industry dynamics, and more specifically how can market players capitalize on the 'green shoots' and the niche opportunities.

Scope

*The report discusses the new car sales in the various European regions (Datamonitor's four regions within Europe) amidst the downturn

*It also highlights the impact of scrappage schemes and analyzes if these are really beneficial for the automotive industry and society at large?

*The report analyzes the changes in customers' buying behavior during the downturn and if these these changes are here to stay?

*The report provides the future outlook (from 2010-15) for the different European regions.

Highlights

In 2010, the larger markets of Western Europe and few other markets, which in 2009 witnessed an increase of sales, are likely to go down. On the other hand, most of the other markets are forecast to witness an increase in sales. Overall, the new car sales in Datamonitor's 30 markets are expected to go down by more than 7%.

Furthermore, the share of luxury and premium vehicles in the new car sales is expected to go up and consequently, the share of diesel cars is forecast to rise.

Reasons to Purchase

*The report provides an insight on the changing consumer preferences amidst the downturn and how these will shape the future industry dynamics.

*The future outlook for the different European regions with focus on the high growth markets has been discussed at length.


Report Highlights
In 2010, the larger markets of Western Europe and few other markets, which in 2009 witnessed an increase of sales, are likely to go down. On the other hand, most of the other markets are forecast to witness an increase in sales. Overall, the new car sales in Datamonitor's 30 markets are expected to go down by more than 7%.

Furthermore, the share of luxury and premium vehicles in the new car sales is expected to go up and consequently, the share of diesel cars is forecast to rise.
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OVERVIEW 1
Catalyst 1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2
Table of Contents 3
Table of figures 4
Table of tables 5
CHAPTER 1: RECESSION HITS NEW CAR SALES IN EUROPE 6
1.1 Financial meltdown triggers downturn in the automotive industry 6
1.2 New car sales witness double digit decline 7
1.3 Growth rate of car parc slows down 8
CHAPTER 2: STEPS TO SALVAGE THE INDUSTRY 9
2.1 Governments launch scrappage schemes 10
Governments under pressure to support the automotive Industry 10
Launch of scrappage schemes and its effects 11
2.2 Automotive industry resorts to cost cutting 14
CHAPTER 3: IMPACT OF RECESSION ON THE EUROPEAN REGIONS 16
3.1 Scrappage schemes stymie the declining new car sales in the Top 7 Markets 17
3.2 The Small markets shed more than 17% in new car sales 18
3.3 The Eastern European markets go down by more than 20% 19
3.4 The Emerging Markets: The higher they went, the heavier they fell 20
CHAPTER 4: SCRAPPAGE SCHEMES CHANGE THE MARKET DYNAMICS IN WESTERN EUROPE 21
4.1 Share of small cars takes a leap 21
4.2 Dominance of the Top 7 markets strengthens 23
4.3 Debate: Are the European scrappage incentives beneficial in the long term? 24
CHAPTER 5: FUTURE OUTLOOK 27
5.1 The Top 7 markets set to witness a 'W-shaped' recovery 27
5.2 The Small markets to remain flat 28
5.3 The Eastern European markets to go down marginally 29
5.4 The Emerging markets to witness modest growth 30
5.5 Datamonitor's 30 markets to recover in 2011 31
5.6 Actual growth in 2009 vs forecasted growth in 2010 for Datamonitor's 30 markets 33
CHAPTER 6: KEY TAKEAWAYS 34
6.1 Trends (consumer preferences) to watch out for in 2010 35
6.2 Few Eastern European and Emerging markets to focus on! 36
APPENDIX 37
Definitions 48
Datamonitor's 30 markets 48
Datamonitor's 30 markets include Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Greece, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK, and Ukraine 48
Top 7 markets 48
Small markets 48
Eastern European markets 48
Emerging European markets 48
Further reading 49
Ask the analyst 49
Datamonitor consulting 50
Disclaimer 50
List of Tables
Table 1: Datamonitor's classification of European regions 16
Table 2: Scrappage incentive schemes run by various governments 46
List of Figures
Figure 1: Factors leading to the downturn in the automotive industry 6
Figure 2: New car sales and growth rates for Datamonitor's 30 markets, 2002-09 7
Figure 3: Car parc and growth rates for Datamonitor's 30 markets, 2005-09 8
Figure 4: Steps taken by the key stakeholders during the downturn 9
Figure 5: Factors leading to the introduction of scrappage schemes 10
Figure 6: Tenure and impact of scrappage incentives - Leaders and Followers 12
Figure 7: Volume of car sales generated by scrappage incentives in the Top 7 markets*, 2009 13
Figure 8: Steps taken by players in automotive industry during the downturn 14
Figure 9: Car sales and growth rates for the Top 7 markets, 2002-09 17
Figure 10: Car sales and growth rates for the Small markets, 2002-09 18
Figure 11: Car sales and growth rates for the Eastern European markets, 2002-09 19
Figure 12: Car sales and growth rates for the Emerging markets, 2002-09 20
Figure 13: Share of small cars and diesel cars in car sales in Western Europe*, 2005-09 21
Figure 14: Change in the market share of brands in Western Europe, 2008-09 22
Figure 15: Change in regional split of new car sales, 2008-12f 23
Figure 16: Views in favor of/against the scrappage schemes 24
Figure 17: The car sales in the Top 7 markets* with and without scrappage schemes, 2008-15f 25
Figure 18: Forecast car sales and growth rates for the top seven markets, 2010f-15f 27
Figure 19: Forecast car sales and growth rates for the Small markets, 2010f-15f 28
Figure 20: Forecast car sales and growth rates for the Eastern European markets, 2010f-15f 29
Figure 21: Forecast car sales and growth rates for the Emerging markets, 2010f-15f 30
Figure 22: Forecast car sales and growth rates for Datamonitor's 30 markets, 2010f-15f 31
Figure 23: Forecast car parc and growth rates for the Datamonitor's 30 markets, 2010f-15f 32
Figure 24: Actual growth in new car sales in 2009 vs forecasted growth in 2010 for the Datamonitor's 30 markets 33
Figure 25: Changes in market dynamics as a result of the scrappage schemes 35
Figure 26: Markets that offer maximum growth potential, 2010f-15f 36
Figure 27: Growth in new car sales in the Top 7 markets, actual CAGR 2002-07 vs forecasted CAGR 2010-15 37
Figure 28: Growth in new car sales in the Small markets, actual CAGR 2002-07 vs forecasted CAGR 2010-15 38
Figure 29: Growth in new car sales in the Eastern European markets, actual CAGR 2002-07 vs forecasted CAGR 2010-15 39
Figure 30: Growth in new car sales in the Emerging European markets, actual CAGR 2002-07 vs forecasted CAGR 2010-15 40
Figure 31: Changes in the share of segments, 2008-09 41
Figure 32: Car penetration in the Top 7 markets, 2009-15f 42
Figure 33: Car penetration in the Small markets, 2009-15f 43
Figure 34: Car penetration in the Eastern European markets, 2009-15f 44
Figure 35: Car penetration in the Emerging markets, 2009-15f 45

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