Forecast Insight: Antibacterials

Introduction

Over the next decade, the fragmented antibacterials market will shift away from a blockbuster-business model, as generic erosion of market leaders and increased competition between new hospital drugs will trigger a decline in sales of branded antibacterials. While there is a lack of innovation with regards to new community drugs, the hospital sector will remain the only notable source of growth.

Features and benefits

* Analysis of the antibacterials market across the US, Japan, France, Italy, Germany, Spain and the UK.
* Detailed ten-year sales forecasts for marketed antibacterial drugs in each of the seven major markets.
* Thorough assessments of key marketed antibacterial brands.
* Snapshot of market dynamics in the Rest of World.

Highlights

In 2009, antibacterial sales in the seven major markets totalled $19.6bn, declining at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -1.6% since 2005. This decline was largely caused by generic erosion of market-leading community brands, such as Zithromax and Klacid, combined with a paucity of new product launches.
Over the next decade, genericization of key brands will drive a significant decline in market value, contributing to a loss of revenues from Levaquin/Cravit/Tavanic, Zosyn/Tazocin, and Zyvox alone of $3.2bn by 2019. Combined with growing resistance, this will cause increasing market fragmentation and reduce the potential for “blockbuster” sales.
The late-stage pipeline, much of which is targeting MRSA, will generate revenues totaling nearly $2.0bn by 2019. However, Datamonitor predicts that this upside will be insufficient to offset the decline caused by genericization, and total seven major market sales will fall from $19.6bn in 2009 to $16.4bn in 2019, with a CAGR of -1.8%.

Your key questions answered

* Assess and quantify the market opportunity for antibacterials, from generics to high-priced hospital brands.
* Understand the changing market dynamics of antibacterial drugs and success factors for leading brands.
* Assess the impact of key issues affecting the antibacterials market; generic erosion and growing levels of resistance.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Overview 1
Catalyst 1
Summary 1
About Datamonitor healthcare 2
About the Infectious Disease pharmaceutical analysis team 2
Executive Summary 3
Strategic scoping and focus 3
Datamonitor insight into the antibacterials market 3
Related reports 4
Upcoming related reports 4
CHAPTER 1 MARKET Definition and Overview 10
Market definition for this report 10
Countries and regions included in this report 10
Seven major market assessment 10
Class analysis 19
Brand analysis 21
Comparison with previous forecast 27
Rest of the World snapshot 30
CHAPTER 2 Brand Dynamics 34
Overview of competitive landscape 34
Levaquin/Cravit/Tavanic (levofloxacin; Johnson & Johnson/Daiichi Sankyo/Sanofi-Aventis) 40
Zosyn/Tazocin (piperacillin/tazobactam; Pfizer/Taisho Pharmaceutical) 43
Zyvox (linezolid; Pfizer) 45
Cubicin (daptomycin; Cubist Pharmaceuticals/Novartis/Merck & Co.) 49
Merrem/Meropen (meropenem; AstraZeneca/Dainippon Sumitomo) 53
Avelox/Octegra (moxifloxacin; Bayer/Merck & Co.) 56
Tygacil (tigecycline; Pfizer) 59
Vibativ (telavancin; Theravance/Astellas Pharma) 63
Zienam/Primaxin (imipenem/cilastatin; Merck & Co.) 66
Doribax/Finibax (doripenem; Johnson & Johnson/Shionogi & Co.) 69
Invanz (ertapenem; Merck & Co.) 72
Bibliography 76
Journal papers 76
Websites 77
Datamonitor reports 78
Appendix A – Market Assumptions 79
New product launches 79
Patent expiries 79
Data definitions, limitations and assumptions 80
Forecast methodology 81
Appendix B 82
Contributing experts 82
Conferences attended 82
Report methodology 82
About Datamonitor 82
Disclaimer 85


TABLE OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Antibacterial sales ($m) in the seven major markets, by type of product (marketed versus pipeline), 2005–19 12
Figure 2: Antibacterial sales ($m) and CAGR (%) in the seven major markets, by region, 2005–19 15
Figure 3: Antibacterial sales ($m) in the seven major markets, by country, 2005–19 16
Figure 4: Antibacterial sales ($m) in the seven major markets, by drug class, 2005–19 21
Figure 5: Sales of key antibacterial brands/molecules in the seven major markets ($m), 2009 and 2019 23
Figure 6: Comparison of fluoroquinolone class forecasts in the seven major markets, 2005–19 28
Figure 7: Comparison of antibacterial market forecasts in the seven major markets, 2005–19 29
Figure 8: Rest of the World versus seven major market sales split for the antibacterials market, 2009 31
Figure 9: Indexed annual sales of the antibacterials market in small and emerging markets, 2005–09 32
Figure 10: 2009 and updated sales forecast for Levaquin, Cravit, and Tavanic in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–19 43
Figure 11: 2009 and updated sales forecast for Zosyn and Tazocin in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–19 45
Figure 12: 2009 and updated sales forecast for Zyvox in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–19 49
Figure 13: 2009 and updated sales forecast for Cubicin in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–19 53
Figure 14: 2009 and updated sales forecast for Merrem and Meropen in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–19 56
Figure 15: 2009 and updated sales forecast for Avelox and Octegra in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–19 59
Figure 16: 2009 and updated sales forecast for Tygacil in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–19 63
Figure 17: 2009 and updated sales forecast for Vibativ in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–19 66
Figure 18: 2009 and updated sales forecast for Zienam/Primaxin in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–19 69
Figure 19: 2009 and updated sales forecast for Doribax and Finibax in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–19 72
Figure 20: 2009 and updated sales forecast for & Co.’s Invanz in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–19 75
Figure 21: Methodology for forecasting price to remove impact of currency fluctuations on future trend figure 81


TABLE OF TABLES
Table 1: Key events impacting the antibacterials market, 2005–19 13
Table 2: Sales forecasts for antibacterials in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–19 24
Table 3: Comparison of leading branded antibacterial drug sales in the seven major markets and RoW ($m), 2009 33
Table 4: Leading branded antibacterial drug sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–19 35
Table 5: Selected antibacterial compounds in the late-stage R&D pipeline, 2011 40
Table 6: Key factors impacting sales of Levaquin, Cravit, and Tavanic, 2010–19 42
Table 7: Key factors impacting sales of Zosyn and Tazocin, 2010–19 45
Table 8: Key factors impacting sales of Zyvox, 2010–19 48
Table 9: Key factors impacting sales of Cubicin, 2010–19 51
Table 10: Key factors impacting sales of Merrem and Meropen, 2010–19 54
Table 11: Key factors impacting sales of Avelox and Octegra, 2010–19 57
Table 12: Key factors impacting sales of Tygacil, 2010–19 61
Table 13: Key factors impacting sales of Vibativ, 2010–19 64
Table 14: Key factors impacting sales of Zienam/Primaxin, 2010–19 67
Table 15: Key factors impacting sales of Doribax/Finibax, 2010–19 70
Table 16: Key factors impacting sales of Invanz, 2010–19 73
Table 17: Datamonitor’s estimated launch dates for antibacterial drugs in the seven major markets, 2010–19 78
Table 18: Patent expiry dates for antibacterial drugs in the seven major markets, 2010–19 79


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