Forecast Insight: Depression - High rewards for novel and adjunctive therapies in treatment-resistant depression

Introduction

Generic erosion, particularly in the US, will contribute to an overall depression market decline from $11.9bn in 2009 to $11.2bn in 2019 across the seven major markets. In this cost-competitive market, new drugs are expected to be used as second- or third-line options as monotherapies or adjuncts for patients non-responsive to generic SSRIs and SNRIs or intolerant to their side effects.
Features and benefits

* Provides quantitative and qualitative analysis of the likely impact that recent events will have on the future depression market.* Includes depression-specific and country-specific sales forecasts for the key brands, generics, and pipeline agents in the seven major markets to 2019* Provides a global depression market snapshot, and analysis of growth trends in key markets outside of the seven major pharmaceutical markets.* Conclusions are supported by key opinion leader comment.
Highlights

At $8.6bn in 2009, the US was the largest and most lucrative of the seven major depression markets. However, the US market is to continue a trend of value decline following patent expiries of Lexapro (escitalopram), Effexor XR (venlafaxine extended release), Cymbalta (duloxetine), and brands belonging to the atypical antipsychotics class.Atypical antipsychotics are increasingly popular among psychiatrists as adjunctive therapies for treatment-resistant depression, and, with high price points, are driving market growth. Atypicals with favorable tolerability profiles and regulatory approval have competitive edge, such as Abilify (aripiprazole) and Seroquel XR (quetiapine).Datamonitor forecasts Novartis and Servier’s Valdoxan (agomelatine) to achieve blockbuster sales following US launch in 2013. It is an effective new class of antidepressant with benefits on sleep quality and minimal to no sexual side effects. However, a high price and liver toxicity place it as a second- or third-line option after SSRIs and SNRIs.
Your key questions answered

* What will be the impact of major generic launches to the depression market and what are the implications to prospective players?* What is the potential of Novartis and Servier's novel antidepressant Valdoxan (agomelatine)? How will it be positioned in the future marketplace?* How will Labopharm's Oleptro (trazodone extended release) perform in the competitive US depression market following launch in 2010?* What is the potential for pipeline therapies Lu AA21004 (Lundbeck and Takeda), TC-5214 (Targacept and AstraZeneca), and vilazodone (Clinical Data)?* Which of the seven major markets will show growth in sales over the forecast period (2010-19) and what will drive this growth?

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Executive Summary
Strategic scoping and focus
Datamonitor insight into the depression market
Related reports
Upcoming related reports
OVERVIEW
Catalyst
Summary
1. MARKET DEFINITION AND OVERVIEW
Market definition for this report
Countries and regions included in this report
Seven major market assessment
Seven major market dynamics
Rest of world snapshot
2. BRAND DYNAMICS
Overview of competitive landscape
Leading brands across the seven major pharmaceutical markets
Key pipeline and recently launched drugs
Lexapro (escitalopram; Lundbeck and Forest)
Drug overview
Drug profile
Product positioning
SWOT analysis
Drug forecast to 2019
Effexor and Effexor XR (venlafaxine; Pfizer)
Drug overview
Drug profile
Product positioning
SWOT analysis
Drug forecast to 2019
Cymbalta (duloxetine; Eli Lilly and Shionogi)
Drug overview
Drug profile
Product positioning
SWOT analysis
Drug forecast to 2019
Pristiq (desvenlafaxine; Pfizer)
Drug overview
Drug profile
Product positioning
SWOT analysis
Drug forecast to 2019
Valdoxan/Thymanax (agomelatine; Novartis and Servier)
Drug overview
Drug profile
Development overview
Product positioning
SWOT analysis
Drug forecast to 2019
Oleptro (trazodone extended release tablets, Labopharm)
Drug overview
Drug profile
Product positioning
SWOT analysis
Drug forecast to 2019
Abilify (aripiprazole; Bristol-Myer Squibb, Otsuka)
Drug overview
Drug profile
Product positioning
SWOT analysis
Drug forecast to 2019
Seroquel XR (quetiapine; AstraZeneca)
Drug overview
Drug profile
Product positioning
SWOT analysis
Drug forecast to 2019
Vilazodone (Clinical Data Inc)
Drug overview
Drug profile
Development overview
Product positioning
SWOT analysis
Drug forecast to 2019
Lu AA21004 (Lundbeck & Takeda)
Drug overview
Drug profile
Development overview
Product positioning
SWOT analysis
Drug forecast to 2019
TC-5214 (Targacept and AstraZeneca)
Drug overview
Drug profile
Development overview
Product positioning
SWOT analysis
Drug forecast to 2019
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Journal papers and conference abstracts
Websites
Datamonitor reports
APPENDIX A – MARKET ASSUMPTIONS
New product launches
Patent expiries
Data definitions, limitations and assumptions
Standard units
Derivation of sales forecasts and pricing trends
Exchange rates
Forecast methodology
APPENDIX B
Contributing experts
Conferences attended
Report methodology

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