The global economic crisis negatively affected consumer confidence and consumer spending in France. It also exacerbated the trend towards private label products and discount retailing, and had a negative impact on consumption. BMI estimates that total food consumption in local currency terms (food and drink, excluding alcoholic drinks) registered a small increase in 2010 after stagnating in 2009. Growth is expected to pick up in 2011, with consumer price-sensitivity expected to soften as economic growth improves. However, we still expect spending cuts to begin weighing on French demand in 2012 and given less favourable base effects, we hold to our forecast for overall growth to fall to 1.7% in 2012.
Headline Industry Data
.. 2011 per capita food consumption = +1.2%; forecast to 2015 = +5.2%
.. 2011 alcoholic drink sales = -0.2%; forecast to 2015 = -0.8%
.. 2011 soft drink sales = +2.6%; forecast to 2015 = +13.1%
.. 2011 mass grocery retail sales = +3.2%; forecast to 2015 = +13.1%
Key Industry Trends And Developments
General Mills Acquires 50% of Yoplait – US food group General Mills has recently announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to purchase a controlling stake in French yogurt maker Yoplait for EUR810mn. Under the agreement with co-owners private equity group PAI Partners and milk cooperative Sodiaal, General Mills acquires a 51% stake in Yoplait and a 50% stake in a related entity that holds the global rights to the Yoplait brand. Sodiaal will hold the remaining interest in both groups and the business will be governed by a supervisory board with representation from the co-operative and General Mills. In addition to securing its US licensing deal, the move gives General Mills a brand with strong potential to grow in emerging markets, where the company currently lags behind several of its key rivals. Yoplait is already distributed in Eastern Europe and Latin America and BMI believes the brand could grow exponentially with the support of a major food firm such as General Mills.
Carrefour Shelves Property Spin off/Focused on French Turnaround – Carrefour has recently shelved/postponed plans to spin off 25% of its French property assets. The plans came under heavy fire from analysts when they were revealed earlier in 2011 and BMI suggested that the moves looked like 'financial tinkering with little underlying purpose'. Instead the firm has said it will focus on the turnaround of its French division, with CEO Lars Olofsson announcing that he will take over direct supervision of the unit. The current head of the French business is to leave having been in place for just 14 months. The move highlights just how crucial it is for the firm to start performing in France. However, with suggestions that its much hyped Carrefour Planet rebranding is failing to have the required impact, BMI still believes the company has not yet identified a strategy that can deliver long-term growth to this part of the business.
Key Risk To Outlook
Eurozone debt crisis – The greatest short-term risk to the French outlook is a credit event elsewhere in the eurozone. This would elevate risk aversion toward and could destabilise the economic recovery. It would also raise questions about the fiscal solvency of other countries in the eurozone, and while France is among the bloc’s ‘core’ states, its government debt pile of over 80% of GDP in 2010 (according to our estimates) compares unfavourably even with the likes of Spain.
Faltering recovery – Another risk is that with the economic recovery still weak, the government’s plans for significant fiscal retrenchment could weigh more heavily on growth than we expect. We still expect stronger expenditure-side fiscal austerity to emerge following elections next year, which will weigh on consumption and employment prospects in 2012.

[Studien Infos ausblenden]

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT Analysis 9
France Food Industry SWOT 9
France Drink Industry SWOT 10
France Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT 11
Business Environment 12
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views 12
Table: BMI Food & Drink Core Views 18
Western Europe Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings 19
Table: Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q3 2011 22
France’s Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings 23
Macroeconomic Outlook 24
Table: France - Economic Activity 26
Industry Forecast Scenario 27
Consumer Outlook 27
Food 29
Total Food Consumption 29
Table: France Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts 29
Prepared Food/Canned Food 30
Table: Canned Food Sales, 2008-2015 30
Confectionery 31
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts 31
Drink 32
Hot Drinks 32
Table: Hot Drink Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts 32
Soft Drinks 32
Soft Drink Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts 33
Alcoholic Drinks 34
Table: Alcoholic Drink Sales, 2008-2015 35
Mass Grocery Retail 35
Table: France Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales By Format (US$bn) - Historical Data & Forecasts 37
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2009 And 2019 37
Trade 38
Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance, 2008-2015 38
Food 39
Key Industry Trends And Developments 39
Russia Set to Replace France as Danone’s Largest Market in 2011 39
Lactalis Launches Takeover Bid for Parmalat 40
Sodiaal/Entremont Dairy Deal Likely To Be First Of Many In 2011 41
Bonduelle Bid For General Mills’ Green Giant Seen As Logical 42
General Mills Acquires 50% Stake in Yoplait 43
Functional Food Continues To Grow In Importance 44
Private Label Surge Could Be Curbed By Regulation Changes 45
Market Overview 45
Food Production 45
Leading Players 46
Food Consumption 46
Prepared Food/Canned Food 47
Confectionery 47
Trade 47
Sugar Production 48
Organic Farming 48
Drink 50
Key Industry Trends And Developments 50
China Thirsty For French Wine Culture And Brands 50
Fate Of Rémy’s Champagne Arm Will Signal LVMH’s Strategy 51
Belvédère Puts Off Marie Brizard Sale, But For Good? 52
Pernod Ricard’s Portfolio Clearout 54
Starbucks Trying To Crack Coffee Market 55
Moet Increasing Champagne Production as EM Demand Heats Up 55
Kronenbourg Growth Suggests Opportunities Remain In Difficult Beer Sector 56
Bottled Water Continues to Stage a Recovery 57
Market Overview 59
Soft Drinks 59
Alcoholic Drinks 60
Beer 60
Wine 60
Spirits 61
Mass Grocery Retail 62
Key Industry Trends And Developments 62
French C-Store Sector Set for Consolidation 62
Carrefour Shelves Plan for Property Spin-off/Focused on France Turnaround 63
Carrefour Looking Online 65
Intermarche Aims for Growth from Production Arm 66
Market Overview 66
Leading Players 68
Table: Structure Of France’s MGR Market – Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2002-2008 68
Competitive Landscape 69
Key Players 69
Table: Key Players in France's Food Sector 69
Table: Key Players in France's Drink Sector 70
Table: Key Players in France's Mass Grocery Retail Sector 71
Company Profiles 73
Food 73
Groupe Danone 73
Nestlé France 75
Drink 77
LVMH Group (Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton) 77
Pernod Ricard 79
Mass Grocery Retail 81
Carrefour 81
Groupe Auchan 83
Groupe Casino 85
BMI Food & Drink Methodology 87
Table: Rewards 88
Table: Risks 89
Weighting 89
Table: Weighting 90
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary 91
Food & Drink 91
Mass Grocery Retail 91
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting And Sourcing 93
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 93
Sources 94
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