BMI View: France is one of the leading global pharmaceutical markets by size, propped up by its large population of just under 63mn. The French are traditionally fond of patented and branded drugs and are also large consumers of medicines on a per-capita basis. In fact, the generous reimbursement system in France has partly been blamed for the over-consumption of pharmaceuticals in the country. However, factors such as upcoming patent expirations and the need for fiscal austerity will continue to weigh on the French pharmaceutical’s annual growth rates.
Headline Expenditure Projections
?? Pharmaceuticals: EUR30.00bn (US$39.79bn) in 2010 to EUR29.62bn (US$42.36bn) in 2011; -1.3% in local currency terms and +6.5% in US dollar terms.
?? Healthcare: EUR228.90bn (US$303.63bn) in 2010 to EUR234.72bn (US$335.68bn) in 2011; +2.6% in local currency terms and +10.6% in US dollar terms.
?? Medical devices: EUR10.13bn (US$13.43bn) in 2010 to EUR10.42bn (US$14.90bn) in 2011; +2.9% in local currency terms and +10.9% in US dollar terms.
Business Environment Rating: France scores well in BMI’s Q411 Business Environment Ratings (BERs) and is ranked fourth in our Western European matrix of ten countries. However, its reward profile which scores a total of 61 out of 100, is considerably less attractive than its risk score, which scores 77.
Key Trends & Developments
?? French multinational drugmaker Sanofi recorded Q211 sales of EUR8.35bn (US$11.94bn), a 0.5% increase on sales of EUR8.31bn (US$11.02bn) recorded in Q210. While this translates as a recovery (Q111 net sales fell by 1.5%), we note that following a 10.6% decline in net income in Q111, Sanofi's profits continued to recede, with the company recording a 13.2% (EUR2.15bn, US$3.07bn) fall in net income in Q211, down from EUR2.48bn (US$3.29bn) in Q210.
?? In August 2011, with the aim of improving patient safety and restoring confidence in the country's drug regulatory process, the French government announced a series of proposals that will comprise a bill altering the working practices of drug companies operating in the country.
BMI Economic View: Flat growth in the second quarter and a deteriorating global economic backdrop have prompted us to revise down our French real GDP growth forecast to 1.7% this year, from 2.2% previously. This places France's medium-term budget deficit forecasts and sovereign creditworthiness into yet further question, as it looks increasingly difficult for the economy to grow out of its debts. In turn, this could force the government's hand on the fiscal front earlier than previously expected.
BMI Political View: While the case against former IMF Chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn in the US has now been dropped, we still do not see much potential for him to run as a candidate in next year's French presidential election. Though President Nicolas Sarkozy's popularity remains weak, the recent political upheaval for the Socialist party will nonetheless result in a close-run election in 2012. However, irrespective of who wins, we see little room for the new government to avoid more pronounced fiscal tightening at home in 2012.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
France Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT 7
France Political SWOT 8
France Economic SWOT 8
France Business Environment SWOT 9
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings 10
Table: Western Europe Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings for Q411 10
Rewards 12
Risks 13
France – Market Summary 14
Regulatory Regime 15
Intellectual Property Developments 16
Pricing and Reimbursement Issues 16
Table: France Reimbursement Categories 17
Evaluation of Treatments 18
Recent Pricing and Reimbursement Developments 20
OTC Market Developments 21
Industry Trends And Developments 22
Epidemiology 22
Public Health Issues 23
Prescribing Habits 24
Healthcare Financing 25
Research and Development (R&D) 26
Biotechnology Sector 27
Clinical Trials 28
Medical Devices 30
Industry Forecast Scenario 31
Overall Market Forecast 31
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2007-2015 32
Key Growth Factors – Industry 33
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2007-2015 34
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2007-2015 35
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2007-2015 35
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic 36
Table: France – Economic Activity 38
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 39
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2007-2015 40
Patented Product Market Forecast 41
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2007-2015 42
Generic Drug Market Forecast 43
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2007-2015 45
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 46
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2007-2015 48
Medical Device Market Forecast 49
Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2007-2015 50
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 51
Table: Exports and Imports Indicators 2007-2015 52
Other Healthcare Data and Forecasts 53
Key Risks to BMI’s Forecasts 53
Competitive Landscape 54
Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry 54
Table: French Pharmaceutical Companies According To Market Capitalisation 56
Recent Company Developments 58
Multinational Companies 59
Wholesale Sector 60
Pharmacy Sector 61
Company Monitor 63
Indigenous Companies 63
Sanofi (formerly Sanofi-Aventis) 63
Servier 70
Ipsen 72
Leading Multinational Manufacturers 75
Pfizer 75
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) 77
Novartis 79
Merck & Co 81
Country Snapshot: France Demographic Data 83
Section 1: Population 83
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 83
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 84
Section 2: Education and Healthcare 84
Table: Education, 2002-2005 84
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 84
Section 3: Labour Market and Spending Power 85
Table: Employment Indicators, 2000-2005 85
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 86
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 86
Glossary 87
BMI Methodology 89
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 89
Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings 90
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 90
Ratings Overview 90
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators 91
Weighting 92
Table: Weighting Of Components 92
Sources 92
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