France Power Report Q1 2012

BMI View: While France continues its commitment to nuclear technology for energy production, there are changes ahead for the sector. A review by the Nuclear Security Authority published in January 2012 has called for increased safety measures to be installed in EdF’s reactors, which will be expensive to implement. Interest in renewable energy is increasing, with three consortiums (formed mainly of French firms), submitting bids for the first phase of offshore windfarms, and the creation of a new company, Force Hydro – a joint-venture led by Vattenfall – showing ambitions to capitalise on a hydroelectric generation capacity tender, which is expected in 2012.
During the period 2011-2016, French overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 1.03%, reaching 569TWh. Driving this growth is an annual 2.25% gain in gas-fired generation and a 4.8% rise in renewables-based electricity supply. Coal-fired generation looks set to fall steadily during the forecast period, reflecting moves towards a greener and cleaner supply slate. With a likely reduction in oil-fired power, natural gas will be the thermal source of choice for France, particularly in combined cycle projects.
Following an increase in 2011 real GDP of an estimated 1.8%, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 1.6% between 2011 and 2021. The population is expected to rise from the current level of 63.1mn to 66.2mn during the period 2011-2021, and net power consumption looks set to increase from an estimated 457TWh in 2011 to 481TWh by 2016, rising further to 511TWh by 2021. During the period 2011-2016, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 1.1%, accelerating marginally later in the decade to an average of 1.2% in 2016-2021.
Thanks partly to the forecast rise in net generation, growth of which exceeds that of the underlying demand trend, the French power supply surplus is likely to increase as new largely nuclear capacity kicks in. A gradual decline in the percentage of transmission and distribution losses from around 6% in 2011 will help strengthen the market. The theoretical net export capability by 2016 is put at 54TWh, which should increase to almost 79TWh in 2021.
The publication of the Nuclear Safety Authority’s review of France’s nuclear power plants in January 2012 has brought mixed news to the sector. While the ASN confirms that no nuclear plants need to be decommissioned for safety reasons, it does make a series of recommendations to improve the security of nuclear plants in France, which will cost around EUR10bn to implement. EdF has until June 2012 to formulate a response to this request.
In January 2012, three consortiums submitted bids to construct France’s first offshore wind farm – winning bids will be preselected in April 2012. In the same month, a second phase of bidding for additional capacity will open.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
France Power SWOT 6
Global Industry Overview 7
Regional Industry Overview 11
Industry Forecast Scenario 15
France Snapshot (Macro) 15
Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data 15
Country Snapshot: Power Sector 15
France Forecast Scenario 16
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity 16
Table: France Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts 16
Table: France Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts 20
Table: France Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts 23
Table: France Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts 25
Electricity Consumption 34
Table: France Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts 34
Table: France Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts 34
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports 36
Table: France Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts 36
Table: France Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts 36
Table: France Trade Data And Forecasts 36
Table: France Trade Data And Forecasts 36
Key Policies/Market Structure 38
Regulation and Competition 38
Pricing 38
Table: Electricity Prices In the EU Member States, As Of January 2011 39
Key Projects Database 40
Power Plants & transmission grids 40
Business Environment 42
Developed Countries Power Regional Risk/Reward Ratings 42
Developed States Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 42
France Power Rating 45
Rewards 45
Risks 45
Competitive Landscape 46
Electricité de France (EdF) 47
Electrabel-Suez 48
Endesa France/SNET 48
Areva 48
Company Monitor 49
Electricité de France (EdF) 49
Market Position 50
Strategy 50
Latest Developments 51
Glossary of Terms 53
Table: Glossary of Terms 53
Methodology And Sources 54
Industry Forecasts 54
Power Industry – Data Methodology 55
Generation and Consumption Data 55
Electricity Generation Capacity Data 56
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 57
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators 59
Sources 60
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