The latest Gabon Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 0.47% of African regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 1.86% of supply. African regional oil use of 3.06mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 3.63mn b/d in 2010. It should average 3.62mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around 4.09mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8.08mn b/d in 2001, and in 2010 averaged an estimated 10.74mn b/d. After dropping to an estimated 9.66mn b/d in 2011 because of the loss of Libyan volumes, it is set to rise to 12.91mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging behind the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 6.02mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 8.15mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 9.85mn b/d by 2015. Nigeria has the greatest production growth potential, with Angolan exports also set to climb significantly.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 120.6bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 162.3bcm forecast for 2015. Production of an estimated 208.7bcm in 2010 should reach 295.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 105bcm to 151bcm in 2015. In 2010, Gabon consumed an estimated 0.17% of the region’s gas, with its market share forecast at 0.15% by 2015. It contributed an estimated 0.10% to 2010 regional gas production and by 2015 will account for 0.08% of supply.
The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year.
Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket and Brent price forecasts. We expect Brent crude to average US$106/bbl in 2011, with OPEC basket averaging US$101.90/bbl. Mid-year increases in supply present downside risks to this forecast. In 2012, we expect OPEC basket to average US$95/bbl, with Brent averaging US$97.6/bbl.
The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February. Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.5%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the US is now expected to slow down, but growth in the eurozone should be marginally higher than last year, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will slump to 0.7% as a result of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price forecast for 2011 is US$101.90/bbl for the OPEC Basket, putting Brent at US$106/bbl and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at US$95.30, although these differentials are subject to change. Gabon’s real GDP rose by an estimated 3.2% in 2010. We are forecasting average annual growth of 4.4% in 2010-2015. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 16,230b/d in 2010 to 19,930b/d in 2015. State oil company Société Nationale Petrolière Gabonaise (SNPG) operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs). Combined oil and gas liquids output is forecast to increase from an estimated 246,000b/d in 2010 to a peak of 255,000b/d in 2012, before easing to 240,000b/d by 2015. Gas production should rise only slightly to 0.25bcm by 2015, up from an estimated 0.2bcm in 2010. Consumption is expected to follow the production trend, with no need for imports but no surplus gas to export.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting a decline in Gabon’s oil and gas liquids production of 12.2%, with volumes peaking at 255,000b/d in 2012, before falling steadily to 217,000b/d by the end of the 10- year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 62.9%, with growth slowing to an assumed 5.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 22,580b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to be just under 0.3bcm by the end of the period. With demand rising by 150% between 2010 and 2020, there should be a balanced market, with no need for imports or scope for exports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Gabon now shares sixth place with Ghana and Angola in BMI’s composite Business Environment ratings (BER) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. The country holds second place behind Libya in our updated upstream BER and may struggle to defend its position over the medium term as the presence of Ghana and Nigeria below threatens. The county’s score benefits from healthy gas output growth prospects, a particularly high gas reserves-to-production ratio (RPR) and attractive licensing terms. The country’s risk environment is fragile, but this is hardly uncommon in Africa. Gabon is near the bottom of the league table in BMI’s updated downstream ratings, with no high scores and progress unlikely unless the energy market grows rapidly or new refineries are built. It shares eighth place with Cameroon thanks to low scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, likely refining capacity expansion, nominal GDP and population.
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Executive Summary 6
Gabon Energy Market Overview 8
Regional Market Overview 10
Oil Supply And Demand 10
Table: Africa’s Oil Consumption, 2008-2015 (000b/d) 11
Table: Africa’s Oil Production, 2008-2015 (000b/d) 12
Oil: Downstream 13
Table: Africa’s Oil Refining Capacity, 2008-2015 (000b/d) 13
Gas Supply And Demand 14
Table: Africa’s Gas Consumption, 2008-2015 (bcm) 14
Table: Africa’s Gas Production, 2008-2015 (bcm) 15
Liquefied Natural Gas 16
Table: Africa’s LNG Exports, 2008-2015 (bcm) 16
Business Environment Ratings 17
Composite Scores 17
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating 17
Upstream Scores 18
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Ratings 18
Gabon Upstream Rating – Overview 19
Gabon Upstream Rating – Rewards 19
Gabon Upstream Rating – Risks 19
Downstream Scores 20
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Ratings 20
Gabon Downstream Rating – Overview 21
Gabon Downstream Rating – Rewards 21
Gabon Downstream Rating – Risks 21
Risk Summary 22
Political Risk. 22
Economic Risk 22
Business Environment 22
Industry Forecast Scenario 23
Oil And Gas Reserves 23
Oil Supply And Demand 23
Gas Supply And Demand 24
LNG 24
Refining And Oil Products Trade 24
Revenues/Import Costs 24
Table: Gabon Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts 24
Other Energy 26
Table: Gabon Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts 26
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 26
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook 26
Competitive Landscape 27
Executive Summary 27
Table: Key Players – Gabon Energy Sector 28
Overview/State Role 29
Licensing And Regulation 29
Government Policy 29
Licensing Rounds 30
Table: Key Upstream Players 31
Table: Key Downstream Players 31
Company Monitor 32
Addax Petroleum 32
Total Gabon – Summary 35
Shell Gabon – Summary 36
Maurel & Prom – Summary 36
VAALCO Energy – Summary 37
Perenco – Summary 38
Eni – Summary 39
Tullow Oil – Summary 39
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts 41
Regional Oil Demand 41
Table: Africa’s Oil Consumption, 2013-2020 (000b/d) 41
Regional Oil Supply 42
Table: Africa’s Oil Production, 2013-2020 (000b/d) 42
Regional Refining Capacity 43
Table: Africa’s Oil Refining Capacity, 2013-2020 (000b/d) 43
Regional Gas Demand 44
Table: Africa’s Gas Consumption, 2013-2020 (bcm) 44
Regional Gas Supply 45
Table: Africa’s Gas Production, 2013-2020 (bcm) 45
Gabon Country Overview 45
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 46
Glossary Of Terms 47
Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology 48
Introduction 48
Ratings Overview 48
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure 49
Indicators 50
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology 50
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology 51
BMI Methodology 53
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 53
Energy Industry 54
Cross checks 54
Sources 54
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