Generics Market Outlook: 2015

Introduction
Historical and forecast analysis of the entire generics industry from 2005 through to 2015. Strategic dynamics within the sector are broken down by company, geography, therapy area and formulation. See how Big Pharma companies' strategic shift away from blockbuster small molecule products will impact generics companies.

Features and benefits
Analyze historical and forecast generics sales by geography, therapy area, formulation and company
Analyze the relationship between the branded prescription pharmaceutical industry and the generics sector
Highlights
The generics industry has developed significantly over the past decade and represents an integral element of the broader prescription pharmaceutical market. This role as the ‘commoditizer’ of the pharmaceutical industry will remain intact; however, the level of sales growth achieved by the generics industry in recent years will not be sustainable.

Sales growth will slow due to a fundamental change in the growth strategies implemented by branded players - Big Pharma in particular - which have become characterized by a smaller number of blockbuster launches and increased investment in biologics and vaccines.

Your key questions answered
Assess the outlook for the generics industry through to 2015
Evaluate the effects of the end of Big Pharma’s blockbuster era on the generics industry

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE 2
About the PharmaVitae team 2
Chapter 1 About this sector report 3
PharmaVitae Explorer database 3
Chapter structure 4
Chapter 2 Executive summary 5
Key findings 5
Introduction to the global generics market 6
Market growth forecast to slow over 2009-15 13
Chapter 3 Methodology 30
Definitions 30
Forecasting methodology 30
Chapter 4 market analysis 36
Key findings 36
Global generics market sales and growth rate analysis, 2005–15 37
Geographic analysis 45
Therapy area analysis 52
Formulation analysis 59
Chapter 5 Company analysis 63
Key findings 63
Leading generics companies 64
Teva 65
Sandoz 71
Mylan 78
Apotex 84
Hospira 90
Ranbaxy 96
Watson 102
Chapter 6 Appendix 108
References 108
Abbreviations 108
Exchange rates 109
About Datamonitor 110
Datamonitor consulting 110
Disclaimer 112


TABLE OF TABLES
Table 1: Exchange rates, 2010 109


TABLE OF FIGURES
Figure 1: The PharmaVitae Explorer 3
Figure 2: Global branded and generic sales and year-on-year growth rate (%), 2005-2009 8
Figure 3: Top 10 specialist generics players ranked by 2009 sales (US$ bn) 9
Figure 4: Example price erosion curves (US double blockbuster first-to-file and 5EU double blockbuster) 10
Figure 5: US blockbuster sales and US generic sales & year-on-year growth (%) 12
Figure 6: Global generic sales growth by region ($bn), 2005-09, 2009-12 and 2012-15 13
Figure 7: US generics sales ($bn) and number of US branded blockbuster expiries, 2010-15 14
Figure 8: Pre-expiry sales for small molecule and biologics ($bn), 2010-12 and 2013-15 18
Figure 9: Volume erosion analysis: small molecules generics versus MAb biosimilars 22
Figure 10: New launches forecasting methodology – Illustrative example, step 1: Original Brand X 31
Figure 11: New launches forecasting methodology – Illustrative example, step 2: Potential generic sales of Brand X 32
Figure 12: New launches forecasting methodology – Illustrative example, step 3: Total generic sales of Brand X 33
Figure 13: New launches forecasting methodology – Illustrative example, step4: Generic sales company split 34
Figure 14: Zoloft and sertraline generics as a percentage of pre-expiry Zoloft sales, US, 2005–09 35
Figure 15: Global generics market, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2005–15 37
Figure 16: Global generics market, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2005–09 39
Figure 17: Global generics market, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2009–15 41
Figure 18: Global generics market, marketed and new launch products ($m), 2005–15 44
Figure 19: Annual sales growth from marketed and new launch products ($m), 2009–15 45
Figure 20: Global generics market by region ($m), 2005–15 46
Figure 21: Absolute sales growth by region ($m), 2005–15 47
Figure 22: Absolute growth by region ($m), 2009–15 51
Figure 23: Global generics market by therapy area ($m), 2009–15 52
Figure 24: Absolute sales growth by therapy area ($m), 2009–15 54
Figure 25: Absolute sales growth by therapy area ($m), 2009–15 57
Figure 26: Global generics market by formulation ($m), 2005–15 59
Figure 27: Absolute sales growth by formulation ($m), 2009–15 61
Figure 28: Absolute sales growth by formulation ($m), 2009–15 62
Figure 29: Global generics market by company ($m), 2005–15 64
Figure 30: Teva global generic sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2009–15 66
Figure 31: Teva global generic sales ($m) marketed and pipeline 2009–15 67
Figure 32: Teva global generic sales by therapy area ($m) 2009–15 68
Figure 33: Teva global generic sales by formulation ($m) 2009–15 69
Figure 34: Teva global generic sales ($m) by region 2009–15 70
Figure 35: Sandoz global generic sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2009–15 73
Figure 36: Sandoz global generic sales ($m) marketed and pipeline 2009–15 74
Figure 37: Sandoz global generic sales by therapy area ($m) 2009–15 75
Figure 38: Sandoz global generic sales by formulation ($m) 2009–15 76
Figure 39: Sandoz global generic sales ($m) by region 2009–15 77
Figure 40: Mylan global generic sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2009–15 79
Figure 41: Mylan global generic sales ($m) marketed and pipeline 2009–15 80
Figure 42: Mylan global generic sales by therapy area ($m) 2009–15 81
Figure 43: Mylan global generic sales by formulation ($m) 2009–15 82
Figure 44: Mylan global generic sales ($m) by region 2009–15 83
Figure 45: Apotex global generic sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2009–15 85
Figure 46: Apotex global generic sales ($m) marketed and pipeline 2009–15 86
Figure 47: Apotex global generic sales by therapy area ($m) 2009–15 87
Figure 48: Apotex global generic sales by formulation ($m) 2009–15 88
Figure 49: Apotex global generic sales ($m) by region 2009–15 89
Figure 50: Hospira global generic sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2009–15 91
Figure 51: Hospira global generic sales ($m) marketed and pipeline 2009–15 92
Figure 52: Hospira global generic sales by therapy area ($m) 2009–15 93
Figure 53: Hospira global generic sales by formulation ($m) 2009–15 94
Figure 54: Hospira global generic sales ($m) by region 2009–15 95
Figure 55: Ranbaxy global generic sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2009–15 97
Figure 56: Ranbaxy global generic sales ($m) marketed and pipeline 2009–15 98
Figure 57: Ranbaxy global generic sales by therapy area ($m) 2009–15 99
Figure 58: Ranbaxy global generic sales by formulation ($m) 2009–15 100
Figure 59: Ranbaxy global generic sales ($m) by region 2009–15 101
Figure 60: Watson global generic sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2009–15 103
Figure 61: Watson global generic sales ($m) marketed and pipeline 2009–15 104
Figure 62: Watson global generic sales by therapy area ($m) 2009–15 105
Figure 63: Watson global generic sales by formulation ($m) 2009–15 106
Figure 64: Watson global generic sales ($m) by region 2009–15 107


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