Highlighting the effects of the impending patent cliff and the consequent consumption of lower-value generic drugs in place of high-value patented drugs, BMI calculates a decline in the growth of the German pharmaceutical market. BMI calculates that drug sales in Germany reached EUR38.15bn (US$53.73bn) in 2009. It is expected that 2010 drug sales will reach EUR39.01bn (US$54.94bn), equating to a growth of 3.5% in local currency terms and 11.7% in US dollar terms. In 2011, as medicines continue to lose intellectual property (IP) protection, growth in the German drug market is expected to slow, resulting in a decline in the value of the drug market. By 2014, pharmaceutical expenditure in Germany is expected to reach a value of EUR36.93bn (US$46.75bn), at a CAGR of -0.65% in local currency terms (-2.74% in US dollar terms).
In addition to drugmakers facing a loss in revenues as a result of generic drug competition, medicine price restrictions that are under discussion may also hinder revenue earning opportunities for companies operating in the country. In early March 2010 it was revealed that German Health Minister Philipp Roesler is considering the implementation of compulsory discounts and price freezes on pharmaceuticals in order to limit the rising cost of healthcare. Germany’s per-capita pharmaceutical expenditure is high compared with other European markets and the country has the third largest pharmaceutical expenditure in the world. BMI believes that the government is understandably keen to cut costs, particularly considering the increased fiscal expenditure associated with the current economic downturn.
Additionally, firms will be expected to submit a benefit-assessment study of their drug, highlighting the patient pool the drug would be used in and which comparator drugs, if any, are present in the market. For novel drugs, health insurance companies must negotiate a lower price, but if an agreement cannot be reached, the Ministry could then impose price ceilings. BMI believes the scheme will not be welcomed by drugmakers. The country’s largest insurers have already squeezed out over EUR500mn (US$678mn) in savings from the generics medicines sector – health insurance companies (Krankenkassen) award bulk tenders to drugmakers that charge the least for their products. Following this, in late March 2010, it was revealed that Germany’s ruling Christian Democrat party(CDU) is considering a three-year freeze on price rises for prescription drugs – a move that could generate cost savings of EUR400mn (US$540mn) in 2010 alone.
Despite this, Germany maintains its position as the most attractive Western European market for multinational drugmakers, according to BMI’s Q310 Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Business Environment Ratings. Although growth in medicine sales is low, the country has a very large market in absolute terms. Furthermore, per-capita spending is high, there is a sizeable pensionable population and regulations are transparent.

Report Highlights

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Germany Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT 6
Germany Political SWOT 7
Germany Economic SWOT 7
Germany Business Environment SWOT 8
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings 9
Table: Western Europe Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings For Q310 9
Limits of Potential Returns 10
Risks to Realisation of Returns 10
Germany – Market Summary 12
Regulatory Regime 14
Intellectual Property (IP) Developments 15
Pricing and Reimbursement Issues 16
Recent Pricing and Reimbursement Developments 17
Industry Developments 21
Epidemiology 21
Healthcare Sector 22
Krankenkassen 23
Wholesale Sector 25
Recent Wholesale Sector Developments 26
Retail Sector 27
Recent Retail Sector Developments 29
Biotechnology Sector 30
Medical Devices Industry 32
Industry Forecast Scenario 33
Overall Market Forecast 33
Key Growth Factors – Industry 35
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic 36
Table: Germany – Economic Activity 38
Prescription Market Forecast 39
Patented Product Market Forecast 40
Generic Drug Market Forecast 42
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 44
Medical Device Market Forecast 45
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 47
Other Healthcare Data and Forecasts 49
Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario 50
Competitive Landscape 51
Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry 52
Recent Company Developments 53
Company Profiles 57
Domestic Manufacturer Profiles 57
Bayer HealthCare 57
Boehringer Ingelheim 61
Stada Arzneimittel 65
Grünenthal 67
Leading Multinational Manufacturers 68
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) 68
Pfizer 70
Novartis 72
Sanofi-Aventis 74
Merck & Co 76
Country Snapshot: Germany Demographic Data 77
Section 1: Population 77
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 77
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 78
Section 2: Education and Healthcare 78
Table: Education, 2002-2005 78
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 78
Section 3: Labour Market and Spending Power 79
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 79
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 79
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages 80
BMI Methodology 81
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 81
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings Methodology 82
Ratings Overview 82
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators 83
Weighting 84
Table: Weighting Of Components 84
Sources 84
Forecast Tables 85
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