BMI's Q411 update on Ghana's telecoms market contains revised forecast figures for the country's mobile telephony, broadband and internet sectors. Our forecast is based on June 2011 data as published by Ghana's telecoms regulator, the National Communications Authority (NCA), as well as half- year data published by leading mobile network operators, including MTN Ghana, part of South Africa's MTN Group, Vodafone of the UK and Tigo Ghana, owned by Luxembourg's Millicom International Cellular. It also contains ARPU forecast for the mobile sector based on the weighted average of available ARPU data published by the operators.
The major developments in the Ghanaian telecoms sector as contained in this quarter's update include the extension of the deadline for the completion of mandatory SIM card registration by 90 days from the original date of June 30 2011 and the implementation of mobile number portability (MNP) on July 7 2011. Both developments were expected to temper subscriber growth during 2011 and the remainder of our forecast period through to 2015. However, intensive market and promotional activities by operators in the run-up to the original deadline for SIM registration resulted in better than expected subscriber growth during H111.
According to the NCA, there were net additions of 1.763mn subscribers in H111, bringing the total subscriber base to 19.199mn and mobile penetration to 77.4% by June 30 2011. About 1.208mn subscribers or 68.5% of H111 net additions were in Q211, supporting our view of the impact of promotional activities before the original deadline of SIM registration on subscriber net additions. MTN and Vodafone accounted for 87.6% of net additions during H111. Considering the rapid subscriber growth during H111 and the strong likelihood of a repeat in H211 as operators prepare for a new deadline to be announced by the regulator, we revised our subscriber growth expectations for 2011 and 2012. We expect the market to have about 20.835 mobile subscribers by the end of 2011, reflecting a penetration rate of 84%. We expect growth to slow down into single digits in the latter part of our forecast period, with mobile penetration forecast to reach 95.7% by 2015.
Meanwhile, MNP seems to have taken off in Ghana. According to the NCA, 21,059 subscribers ported their numbers to other mobile operators by July 31 2011 following the launch of the MNP service on July 7. Third-ranked Vodafone claimed as many as 43% of ported numbers switched to its network during that period. BMI welcomes the implementation of MNP considering its positive impact on competition in the mobile market and the choice operators have over changing service providers. However, we believe its long-term impact on market dynamics will be limited as the majority of net additions are through new subscriber acquisitions.
We revised down our fixed line forecast this quarter to reflect the continued fluctuation in the fixed-line subscriber base. We forecast slower growth in the fixed-line sector over the next five years, with market penetration reaching 1.3% by 2015. There is no new data on the broadband and internet sector, therefore our forecast for that sector is unchanged this quarter. We maintain our view that wireless access technologies as well as the increase in international bandwidth from submarine cables, will be major growth drivers of internet penetration in Ghana.

[Studien Infos ausblenden]

Executive Summary 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Mobile SWOT 9
Wireline 11
Political 13
Economic 15
Business Environment 16
Industry Business Environment Overview 18
Business Environment Analysis 18
Table: Sub-Sahara Africa Business Environment Rating, Q4 2011 22
Ghana 23
Industry Forecast 25
ARPU 25
Table: Table: Telecoms Sector -- ARPU -- Historical Data & Forecasts (GHS) 25
Mobile 27
Table: Table: Telecoms Sector -- Mobile -- Historical Data & Forecasts 27
ARPU 30
Table: Industry Forecast - ARPU 30
Fixed-Line 32
Table: Table: Telecoms Sector -- Fixed Line -- Historical Data & Forecasts 32
Broadband 34
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts 34
Market Data Analysis 37
Mobile 37
Table: Table: Ghana Mobile Market Q211 38
Table: Table: Ghana Mobile Market Net Additions H111 44
Mobile Content - Regional Outlook 49
Mobile Banking 51
Country Outlook 54
Table: Table: VAS Developments 56
Mobile Operator Data 57
Table: Table: Total Market 57
Table: Table: Airtel 57
Table: Table: MTN 57
Table: Table: Tigo 58
Table: Table: Vodafone 58
Table: Table: Kasapa 59
Fixed-Line 60
Table: Table: Subscriber Numbers Of Ghana's Fixed-Line Operators, 2009-2010 63
Broadband 65
Table: Table: Wireline Developments Table 71
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments 72
Table: Table: Ghana's Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 72
Competitive Landscape 77
Table: Key Players - Ghana Telecoms Sector 77
Vendor Profile 78
Table: Tecnotree: Five-Year Financial KPIs 78
Products & Services 79
Table: Product & Services Matrix 79
Sales Distribution 80
A Valuable Partner In Africa 80
Meeting Increasing Demand For Business Solutions In MENA 81
MEA Sales Consistently Strong 81
New Year, New Strategy 82
Company Profiles 83
Ghana Telecom 83
MTN Ghana 87
Market Overview 93
Mobile 93
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 93
Fixed-Line 94
Table: Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview 95
Broadband 96
Table: Table: Regional Internet Use Penetration Overview 97
Methodology 98
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 98
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 99
Table: Ratings Indicators 100
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 101
[Inhaltsverzeichnis ausblenden]