Global shipping continues to suffer from the glut of vessels ordered during the pre-downturn boom years for shipping coming online. With demand still struggling to recoup previous levels, the three shipping sectors - container and dry and liquid bulk - are all struggling to maintain healthy rates in the face of overcapacity in the global fleet. Indexes are falling and ships are increasingly being forced to operate below break-even rates. Huge geopolitical black swan events, such as the Arab Spring and the Japanese earthquake, have further complicated the market dynamics in the shipping sector. Global airfreight, and in Asia in particular, had been on the rise. The industry will be considerably affected by rising bunker costs, however.
How the Japanese disaster affects Hong Kong remains to be seen. What seems certain is that the special administrative region is hugely dependent on trade from the mainland. As industry continues to move further inland, and mainland ports are further developed, Hong Kong will struggle to maintain its position as one of the world's leading ports. In terms of airfreight, Hong Kong was the largest cargo airport in the world for the first time last year. In light of declining volumes from China and Japan in April, however, it remains to be seen whether it manages to retain this crown in 2011.
Headline Industry Data
?? 2011 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 1.29% and to average 4.7% to 2015.
?? 2011 rail freight is forecast to decline by 1.4%
?? 2011 Port of Hong Kong tonnage throughput is forecast to grow by 3.7% and to average 3.1% to 2015.
?? 2011 road freight is forecast to grow by 1.9%, and to average 4.3% to 2015.
?? Total real trade growth is forecast to grow by 5.1%, and to average 4.6% to 2015.
Key Industry Trends
Hong Kong Airport Claims 2010 Cargo-Handling Crown
Hong Kong Airport has claimed first place in the global cargo-handling stakes, according to data released by the Airports Council International (ACI). BMI notes that the growth seen at the airport in 2010 was in keeping with the global trend of recovery from the economic downturn that saw negative growth at many airports around the world.
In 2010, Hong Kong handled 4.17mn tonnes, according to ACI, recording growth of 23.2% on the 3.38mn tonnes of throughput at the airport in 2009, when it saw a decline of 7.5%. This growth has seen Hong Kong transformed from the second-busiest cargo airport in the world into the busiest, exceeding throughput at Memphis for the first time. The US airport saw a more sedate growth rate of 5.9% in 2010, taking its throughput to 3.92mn tonnes.
Agility Leaves Hong Kong For Singapore It was announced during the quarter that Agility, one of the top 10 logistics companies in the world, would be moving its headquarters from Hong Kong to Singapore in June. This follows in the footsteps of rival logistics giant Kuehne+Nagel, Swire shipping company,China Navigation, and shipbroking house Clarksons, which have moved their headquarters or substantial operations to Singapore from Hong Kong over the past 18 months. The company had been operating two Asian headquarters for some time and wanted to synergise the two. An insider said that connections to Singapore's government and the level of pollution in Hong Kong both played a part in the decision.
Downside Risk For Hong Kong As Maersk Heads To Mainland Maersk Line, the world's largest box carrier, is set to cut the number of calls it makes at the port of Hong Kong. The decision presents downside risk to our forecasts for the port of Hong Kong and could see the facility fall behind mainland facilities in terms of box volumes handled, as the trend to move to mainland ports continues. Maersk Line estimates that it will drop about 25% of its calls at the port of Hong Kong from April 2011, with Reuters quoting Jens Eskelund, Maersk China's managing director, as expecting a 'drop from 30 weekly calls to 22-23 weekly calls at Hong Kong'. The drop in calls is partly due to Maersk Line moving business to the Guanzhou South China Oceangate Container Terminal, with the carrier seeking to create a third major gateway as part of the line's South China strategy.
Risks To Outlook The key risks to our outlook for Hong Kong are from the two giant Asian economies; China and Japan. It is transhipment trade from the two, in particular China, that has made Hong Kong such an important trading hub over the years. As Chinese trade moves inland, however, and the mainland develops its own transhipment hubs, Hong Kong will stand to lose business to Chinese ports and airports. In the short term, the Japanese disaster offers downside risk, though rebuilding efforts could provide upside over the medium term. The special administrative region has also been losing the patronage of a number of key logistics companies to Singapore, which could come to affect our air, sea and road haulage forecasts.
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