The latest Hong Kong Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.49% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015. Regional oil use of 26.07mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010 is forecast to rise to around 30.22mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 7.92mn b/d 2010. It is set to decrease to 7.88mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2010, the region was importing an average 18.15mn b/d. This total rises to an estimated 22.34mn b/d in 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region consumed around 513.3bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 664.9bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of 406.0bcm in 2010 should reach 556.7bcm in 2015, implying net imports falling from around 112.3bcm to 111.8bcm. Hong Kong’s share of gas consumption in 2015 is put at 0.63%.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the eurozone should be marginally higher than 2010, while US and Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will be negative, reflecting the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price assumption for 2011 is US$101.90 per barrel (bbl) for the OPEC basket, falling to US$97.50/bbl in 2012.
Hong Kong’s real GDP is forecast by BMI to rise by 5.0% in 2011, with average annual growth of 3.9% forecast for 2011-2015. There is no upstream or refining segment, but international oil companies (IOCs) and Chinese companies are investing in import and distribution facilities. Oil consumption is forecast to increase by 2-3% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 451,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas demand is set to reach 4.2bcm by 2015, with all of the fuel imported.
Between 2011 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Hong Kong oil consumption of 38.0%, with demand reaching 539,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Oil consumption growth slows to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period. Gas demand growth of 37.6% provides an import requirement rising to 5.0bcm by 2020. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found at the end of this report.
Hong Kong takes 14th place above only Taiwan in BMI’s composite Risk/Reward Ratings league table and is ranked equal 13th in the updated upstream ratings, alongside Singapore. The poor showing reflects the absence of domestic hydrocarbons. The risk environment is much more attractive than for many Asian peers, but there are no opportunities for IOCs in the upstream segment. Hong Kong is ranked 12th, behind Pakistan, in BMI’s downstream ratings, above only Vietnam, Taiwan and PNG, reflecting its status as a very small energy market with few investment opportunities available. It beats its nearest rivals because of its low risk profile.

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Executive Summary 6
SWOT Analysis 7
Hong Kong Political SWOT 7
Hong Kong Economic SWOT 7
Hong-Kong Business Environment SWOT 8
Hong Kong Energy Market Overview 9
Regional Energy Market Overview 10
Oil Supply And Demand 10
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2008-2015 10
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d), 2008-2015 11
Oil: Downstream 12
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2008-2015 12
Gas Supply And Demand 13
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm), 2008-2015 13
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) , 2008-2015 14
Liquefied Natural Gas 15
Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) , 2008-2015 15
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings 16
Asia Pacific Region 16
Composite Scores 17
Table: Regional Composite Risk/Reward Rating 17
Upstream Scores 18
Table: Regional Upstream Risk/Reward Rating 18
Hong Kong Upstream Rating – Overview 19
Hong Kong Upstream Rating – Rewards 19
Hong Kong Upstream Rating – Risks 19
Downstream Scores 20
Table: Regional Downstream Risk/Reward Rating 20
Business Environment 21
Legal Framework 21
Infrastructure 22
Labour Force 23
Foreign Investment Policy 24
Tax Regime 25
Security Risk 26
Industry Forecast Scenario 28
Oil And Gas Reserves 28
Oil Supply And Demand 28
Gas Supply And Demand 29
LNG 30
Refining And Oil Products Trade 30
Revenues/Import Costs 30
Table: Hong Kong Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 31
Other Energy 32
Table: Hong Kong Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 32
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 32
Long-Term Energy Outlook 32
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 33
Service Stations 33
Oil Storage And Terminals 33
Gas Pipelines 33
Macroeconomic Outlook 34
Table: Hong Kong – Economic Activity, 2008-2015 36
Competitive Landscape 37
Executive Summary 37
Table: Key Players – Hong Kong Oil And Gas Sector 38
Overview/State Role 38
Licensing And Regulation 38
International Energy Relations 39
Table: Key Downstream Players 39
Company Monitor 40
Shell – Summary 40
Chevron – Summary 40
ExxonMobil – Summary 40
Sinopec/China Resources – Summary 41
CLP – Summary 41
HK Electric – Summary 41
HKCGC – Summary 42
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts 43
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2013-2020 43
Regional Oil Supply 44
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d), 2013-2020 44
Regional Refining Capacity 45
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) , 2013-2020 45
Regional Gas Demand 46
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) , 2013-2020 46
Regional Gas Supply 47
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) , 2013-2020 47
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 48
Glossary Of Terms 49
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 50
Ratings Overview 50
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 51
Indicators 51
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 51
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 52
BMI Methodology 54
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 54
Energy Industry 54
Cross checks 55
Sources 55
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