The Q411 update to the Hungary telecoms market report contains new operator data from Telenor and Deutsche Telekom-owned T-Mobile, and Vodafone Hungary covering the period to the end of June 2011. In addition, the fixed-line and broadband sections of the report includes data covering fixed-voice, fixed and mobile broadband and pay-TV reported by Magyar Telekom, Liberty Global owned UPC and the regulator NHH covering the period until end-June 2011. As a result of this updated data, this report contains revisions to our forecasts for the broadband sector, as well as the mobile segments. The report also contains an update to the monthly blended ARPU forecasts through to 2015 for all three operators.
In the previous update we reported that the government's announcement that the crisis tax impacting telecoms operators would be abolished after 2012 introduced certainty and therefore reduced the negative impact on the development of the market. Further, there has been little impact on the levels of investment by operators, reinforcing our view that the tax had a limited impact on the development trajectory of the wider market. However, in financial terms it continues to affect operator performance. Magyar Telekom, as the incumbent and wealthiest operator, is expected to account for nearly half the additional HUF61bn between 2010 and 2012. Smaller firms such as the cable operator UPC, owned by Liberty Global, have also been hit by the tax. These large sums have reduced financial performance.
The Hungarian mobile market experienced a mixed H111, with declining subscriber numbers, but an improving subscriber mix. The market leader T-Mobile reported a subscriber loss of 431,000 in Q111, with the majority of the losses occurring in the postpaid segment. The higher value of the postpaid segment makes this particularly damaging for the operator. However, T-Mobile's parent company says in its results that the loss is related to a restating of figures and this time excludes business customers. This explains the postpaid losses. This is an issue BMI plans to watch closely in the coming quarters to determine the impact on the market. Further, besides T-Mobile's one-off subscriber losses, the other operators reported limited subscriber losses in H111 as they continued to lose prepaid subscribers, while postpaid subscriber bases increased. This is a mixed trend as it improves subscriber mixes but reduces total subscribers.
The most recent results reported by operators has also shown a slight slowdown in the fixed and mobile broadband markets. This resulted in us restating our forecasts for the broadband sector and downgrading them slightly, but still expect robust growth. In the other segments, BMI forecasts a deceleration in the rate of decline in the fixed-line voice sector as intransigent fixed-line customers are hesitant to upgrade technologies. We downgraded our mobile forecasts based on the restated subscriber figures from T-Mobile. However, this left forecast growth rates unchanged.

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Executive Summary 7
Mobile SWOT 9
Fixed-Line And Internet SWOT 11
SWOT Analysis 13
Mobile SWOT 13
Fixed-Line And Internet SWOT 15
Political 17
Economic 18
Business Environment 19
Business Environment Analysis 21
Central And Eastern Europe Business Environment Ratings 21
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Business Environment Ratings, Q411 25
Industry Business Environment Overview 26
Industry Forecast 28
Mobile 28
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts 28
ARPU 30
Table: Telecoms Sector - Monthly Blended ARPU - Historical Data & Forecasts 30
Fixed Line 32
Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts 32
Internet 34
Table: Telecoms Sector -- Internet -- Historical Data & Forecasts 34
Market Data Analysis 36
Mobile 36
Table: Hungary - Mobile Market, Q21 37
Table: Hungary - Mobile Market Net Additions, Q210 - Q211 ('000) 38
Table: Telenor And T-Mobile ARPU (HUF) 43
Table: Hungary - Mobile Market - Prepaid And Postpaid Subscribers, Q110 - Q211 45
Table: Mobile Contract Wins 45
Mobile Operator Data 46
Table: Total Market - Hungary 46
Table: Telenor 46
Table: T-Mobile 48
Table: Vodafone 49
CEE Mobile Content Outlook 50
Country Outlook 55
Table: Selected VAS Services 59
Fixed Line 60
Table: Table: Total fixed-line subscriptions Q210 to Q211 60
Broadband 64
Table: Mobile Broadband Coverage, March 2011 67
Table: Magyar Telekom Pay-TV Subscriptions by Technology ('000) and Blended TV ARPU (HUF) 69
Table: Wireline Developments, 2008-2010 72
Regulatory Development 73
Table: Regulatory bodies and their responsibilites 73
Competitive Landscape 77
Table: Table: Key Players - Hungary Telecoms Sector 77
Table: Table: Selected Operators - Financial Indicators (US$mn) 77
Central And Eastern Europe Vendor Profile 78
Rough CEEs 79
Cause For Optimism 81
Operator Profiles 83
Magyar Telekom 83
Invitel Holdings 89
T-Mobile Hungary 94
Telenor Hungary 98
Vodafone Hungary 102
Market Overview 105
Mobile 105
Table: Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 105
Fixed line 106
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview 107
Broadband 107
Table: Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview 108
Demographic Data 110
Section 1: Population 110
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 110
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 110
Section 2: Education And Healthcare 111
Table: Education, 2002-2005 111
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 111
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 111
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 111
Table: Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 112
Table: Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 112
Glossary 114
Table: Glossary Of Terms 114
Methodology 116
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 116
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 117
Table: Ratings Indicators 118
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 119
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