Tourism Overview There was a slight fall in foreign visitor arrivals, including same-day visitors, to Hungary of 1.8% yearon- year (y-o-y) in 2010. This was largely due to an annual 3.7% decline in same-day visitors (44% of which were transit visitors), which accounted for 76% of total arrivals, although same-day visitor growth rates showed an improving trend during the course of the year. Despite the fall, there was a recovery in foreign tourist arrivals (non-residents staying at least one night), with numbers rising by 5% y-o-y. The number of overnight visitors has increased each year since 2008.
Hospitality The hospitality sector recovered last year from a poor performance in 2009. The total number of nights by foreign and domestic tourists spent in all accommodation establishments increased slightly, by 1.5% y-oy. Nights by international visitors, which accounted for 49% of the total, were up 1.4% y-o-y, while domestic resident nights increased by a slightly stronger 1.6%. In relation to the major source markets for the sector, Germany (accounting for about 22% of all international nights), contributed a 5.6% y-o-y fall in tourist nights. By contrast, Austria and Italy provided modest growth in the number of nights spent by tourists, up by 1% and about 3% y-o-y respectively. The third largest source market for accommodation establishments, the UK, recorded slight negative growth in tourist nights of about 1% y-o-y. The average occupancy rate of hotel rooms rose to 48.2%, compared with 46.8% in 2009. Occupancy rates in five-star hotels increased favourably to 60.0% from 53.7% a year earlier. The accommodation sector began this year favourably, with data for the first two months of 2011 showing a 5.6% y-o-y increase in the total number of nights by foreign and domestic tourists. International visitor nights rose by a relatively strong 7% y-o-y, while nights spent by domestic visitors increased by over 4%.
Forecast Scenario In line with continuing recovery in international tourism last year, BMI has revised up its annual growth forecast for foreign tourist arrivals (non-residents staying at least one night) to over 6% in 2011 and 2012. These forecasts are based on steady growth in the major source region, the eurozone, with real GDP growth of 1.8% in 2011 and 2012. Growth in Germany though is forecast to slow to 3.0% this year (from an estimated 3.6% in 2010) and 2.0% in 2012. In two other important source markets, economic growth is expected to slow slightly in Slovakia in 2011 and 2012 but remain relatively strong, while in Romania growth should rebound this year and pick up the following year. The nticipated strength of the Hungarian forint, particularly against the euro, over the forecast period is likely to act as a constraint on tourism.
Danubius Hotels Group Preliminary results for the domestic hospitality company Danubius Hotels Group show consolidated group revenues totalled over HUF42.9bn (US$226mn) in 2010, down by 1% in local currency terms from the previous year, while operating profit totalled HUF357mn (US$1.9mn), down by nearly 70% y-o-y. Its Hungarian operations recorded an annual fall in revenues of 2% to HUF25.2bn (US$132mn) and an operating loss of HUF553mn (US$2.9mn), down substantially from 2009. The volcanic ash cloud that grounded air traffic throughout northern and north-western Europe in Q210 had a noticeable negative effect on Hungarian revenues, as did the strength of the forint against the euro. Group occupancy rates stood at 60.0% in 2010, compared with 58.9% a year earlier, while occupancy rates in Hungary edged up to 57.2% from 55.5%. The improvement was due to a strong y-o-y increase in occupancy rates in Q3.
Airlines National flag carrier Malév Hungarian Airlines posted a sizeable fall of about 9% y-o-y in scheduled passenger numbers in the first 11 months of 2010, with traffic of about 2.7mn people. In April 2011, American Airlines began its non-stop service between Budapest and John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York. Hungarian low-cost carrier Wizz Air will enter the Macedonian market in June by opening a new route from Skopje to London Luton. It will open its fourth Romanian operating base in Tirgu Mures that month, initially deploying one Airbus A320 aircraft and adding seven new routes to its Budapest-London services.

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Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Hungary Tourism SWOT 7
Hungary Political SWOT .. 8
Hungary Economic SWOT 9
Hungary Business Environment SWOT 10
Industry Forecast Scenario 11
Arrivals .. 12
Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2015 13
Accommodation . 14
Table: Accommodation Data, 2007-2015 .. 14
Expenditure .. 15
Table: Tourism Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2007-2015.. 16
Inbound Tourism 17
Table: Tourism Arrivals, 2007-2015 . 18
Outbound Tourism 19
Table: Outbound Tourism Data , 2007-2015 19
Market Overview – Travel 21
Commercial Airlines 22
Table: Hungarian Airline Market Key Players, 2009 .. 24
Car Rental Firms .. 27
Global Oil Products Price Outlook .. 27
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl) 28
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) .. 31
Market Overview – Hospitality . 32
Table: Hungary Accommodation Sector Leading Operators, 2009 32
Accommodation Developments .. 33
Infrastructure .. 34
Business Environment Outlook .. 36
BMI’s Security Ratings .. 36
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings 37
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index .. 38
City Terrorism Ratings .. 39
Table: BMI’s Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index . 39
Europe Security Overview 41
Europe’s Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade 41
Global Assumptions . 47
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 .. 47
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 48
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) .. 48
Developed States 49
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) . 50
Emerging Markets. 51
Table: Emerging Markets’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) .. 52
Consensus Forecasts 53
Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y) .. 53
Company Profiles 54
Accor-Pannonia Hotels 54
Danubius Hotels Group .. 55
Hilton Worldwide 56
Malév Hungarian Airlines . 57
Wizz Air .. 58
BMI Methodology 59
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 59
Tourism Industry . 59
Tourism Ratings – Methodology . 60
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators . 61
Table: Weighting Of Components .. 62
City Terrorism Ratings .. 62
Table: City Terrorism Rating Methodology .. 64
Sources .. 64
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