The Indian security situation is coming to a fork in the road. The death of Osama Bin Laden and the slowing of Chinese growth could stabilise the region such that India can pursue constructive peaceful dialogue with Pakistan and China. Simultaneously though, China and Pakistan have grown diplomatically closer and China has become more assertive in the region, particularly regarding territorial disputes. India faces extensive internal security issues, with Hindu nationalist extremists and Muslim separatists regularly causing chaos in the disputed region of Kashmir, on the Pakistan border. Also dozens of groups are fighting for autonomy or independence in the deprived north east region of India, comprising the states of Nagaland, Tripura, Manipur, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and Mizoram. The violence has claimed over 25,000 lives since 1992.
Initially following the cold war India reduced its armed forces, but as neighbouring countries became more powerful and increased their military strength, India began to increase its own forces. According to the ‘The Military Balance’ (IISS) in 2010, India allocated US$38.4bn to their defence budget. Recent military purchases by Pakistan have encouraged India to follow suit.
India has a defence policy of producing as much of their defence needs as they can rather than purchasing from other countries. They have 39 ordnance factories and are home to eight government-owned defence businesses. The majority of government contracts are awarded to government-owned enterprises, although international businesses are nominally accepted.
India has made considerable commitments over the past few years to purchase a range of equipment from countries such as Israel, France and Russia. It is an unstable nation with challenges both inside and outside its borders. An unhappy fractured population threatens unrest while assertive neighbouring countries are keen to encroach on Indian borders. Kashmir and its conflict creates tension with Pakistan and China. Pakistan’s nuclear programme is a constant threat. Ironically, Pakistan developed its nuclear programme to combat India’s sizeable army.
Recent economic data paint a conflicting picture as to the immediate health of India's economic growth story. Nonetheless, we consider there to be sufficient evidence to point towards a softer demand environment over the coming 12 months. While exports are likely to sustain strong momentum, investment spending will feel the pinch of high borrowing costs and greater scrutiny over public projects. Overall, we are comfortable maintaining a conservative real GDP growth forecast of 7.8% for FY2011/12 (April-March).

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Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
India Security SWOT .. 6
India Defence Industry SWOT 6
India Political SWOT .. 7
India Economic SWOT 8
India Business Environment SWOT . 8
Global Political Outlook .. 10
Japan After The Quake 11
Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea 12
Wild Cards To Watch 16
North East Asia Security Overview .. 18
Geopolitical Importance Of North East Asia 18
Flashpoints And Faultlines In North East Asia 19
The Evolution Of North East Asia .. 26
Security Risk Ratings .. 29
BMI’s Security Ratings 29
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings . 29
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index . 30
India’s Security Ratings .. 30
City Terrorism Rating .. 32
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index . 32
Political Overview 34
Foreign Policy . 34
Long-Term Political Outlook 36
Security Overview .. 40
Internal Security Situation 40
Religion .. 40
Insurgency . 40
Assam 40
Nagaland 41
Maoists 41
Refugees .. 43
External Security Situation .. 43
International Terrorism .. 43
Border Disputes .. 44
Armed Forces And Government Expenditure 46
Armed Forces .. 46
International Deployments . 47
Table: India Deployments .. 47
Joint Exercises . 48
Weapons Of Mass Destruction . 48
Table: Indian Nuclear-Capable Delivery Vehicles 50
Market Overview .. 51
Arms Trade Overview .. 52
Industry Trends And Developments .. 53
Procurement Trends And Developments . 56
Competitive Landscape 57
Industry Forecast Scenario 58
Armed Forces .. 59
Table: India’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) . 59
Table: India’s Manpower Available For Military Service, 2009-2015 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated).. 60
Defence Expenditure . 60
Table: India’s Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015 60
Table: Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn) .. 61
Defence Trade .. 61
Table: India’s Defence Exports, 2008-2015 (US$mn) . 62
Table: India’s Defence Imports, 2008-2015 (US$mn) . 62
Table: India’s Defence Trade Balance, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 63
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 63
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario .. 63
Table: India – Economic Activity, 2009-2015 .. 64
Company Profiles 66
BAE-HAL Software Ltd 66
Bharat Dynamics Ltd (BDL) . 68
Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL) .. 69
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). 71
Honeywell International India . 73
Ordnance Factories (OF) .. 74
Rolls-Royce International .. 75
BMI Methodology 76
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 76
Defence Industry . 76
City Terrorism Rating .. 77
Table: Methodology .. 79
Sources 79
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