The lagged impact of the central bank’s aggressive monetary tightening is expected to take the steam out of domestic demand over the coming quarters. Looking ahead, we maintain our view that the Indian consumer-facing sectors provide very exciting opportunities for consumer goods manufacturers, thanks to the country’s favourable demographics, rising disposable incomes and strong macroeconomic fundamentals. As such, big multinationals such as Carrefour, Wal-Mart, The Coca-Cola Company and Starbucks are likely to continue inching their way into the Indian consumer-facing sectors to take advantage of the sectors’ enormous growth potential.
Headline Industry Data
?? 2011 Food Consumption Growth = +5.9%; Compound Annual Average Growth to 2015= +7.2%
?? 2011 Alcoholic Drink Value Sales Growth = +11.6%; Compound Annual Average Growth to 2015= +12.4%
?? 2011 Soft Drink Value Sales Growth = +11.9%; Compound Annual Average Growth to 2015= +9.6%
?? 2011 Mass Grocery Retail Sales= +19.7%; Compound Annual Average Growth to 2015= +17.6%
Key Company Trends
Indians Craving For More Confectionery – A month after US coffee giant Starbucks made its Indian debut, Dunkin' Donuts announced that it will be bringing its sugary treats to India as it looks to capitalise on the country's increasing out-of-home food consumption and rising affluence. Dunkin' is setting up its stores in the country through a franchise with Jubilant Foodworks (JFL) and is aiming to set up 25 to 30 stores within the first three years of its partnership with JFL. Meanwhile, Kraft Foods is reaping the fruits of its Cadbury acquisition. Cadbury India recorded revenue growth of 27% for the year ending December 2010, underlining growing confectionery demand among Indians.
Huge Scope For Premium Growth In Alcohol – SABMiller India has witnessed a drop in its domestic market share from 35% to around 20% within a span of three years. Rather than bruising a market share battle through price competition, SABMiller India is looking to build a strong foothold in the more profitable Indian states of Maharashtra, Karnataka, Haryana and Rajasthan. SABMiller's motive can be linked to the long-term outlook for the country's beer sector. By entrenching its premium brands among Indian consumers and targeting the higher-end markets, the brewer could see little headwind when building up its market share as consumer affluence increases.

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BMI Industry View 7
SWOT Analysis 8
India Food Industry SWOT 8
India Drink Industry SWOT 9
India Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT 10
Business Environment 11
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views 11
Table: BMI Food & Drink Core Views 16
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings 17
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings -Q3 2011 21
India’s Food And Drink Business Environment Rating 22
Macroeconomic Outlook 23
India – Economic Activity 25
Industry Forecast Scenario 26
Consumer Outlook 26
Food 29
Food Consumption 29
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts 30
Confectionery 30
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts 33
Processed Food 33
Table: Processed Food Industry Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts 34
Trade 34
Table: India Food & Drink Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts 35
Drink 35
Hot Drinks 35
Table: India Beverage Sub-Sectors - Value/Volume Sales Historical & Forecasts 37
Alcoholic Drinks 37
Table: India Beverage Sub-Sectors - Value/Volume Sales Historical & Forecasts 39
Soft Drinks 40
Table: India Beverage Sub-Sectors - Value/Volume Sales Historical & Forecasts 42
Mass Grocery Retail 43
Table: India MGR Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts 45
Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format (%) - Historical Data & Forecasts 45
Food 46
Key Industry Trends and Developments 46
Western Fast Food Restaurants Not Having It All Their Own Way 46
Indians Craving For More Confectionery 47
Investments Intensifying In The Other Food Sub-Sectors As Well 48
Market Overview 49
Food Processing 49
Food Consumption 49
Confectionery 50
Canned Food 52
Trade 52
Agriculture 53
Rice 53
Dairy 54
Drink 56
Key Industry Trends and Developments 56
Global Soft Drinks Players Looking to Capitalise on India’s Growing Thirst 56
Huge Scope For Premium Growth 56
Coffee Players Step Up Expansion Efforts As Indians Guzzle More Coffee 57
Market Overview 58
Soft Drinks 58
Hot Drinks 60
Alcoholic Drinks 61
Spirits 61
Beer 62
Wine 63
Mass Grocery Retail 65
Key Industry Trends And Developments 65
Metro Eyeing A Stronger Indian Foothold 65
India A Strong Retail Magnet 66
Market Overview 66
Leading MGR Players 68
Table: Structure of India's Mass Grocery Retail Market by Estimated Number of Outlets 69
Table: Structure of India's Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales by Format (US$mn) 70
Table: Structure of India's Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales by Format (INRmn) 70
Table: Average Outlet Sales by Format - 2010 70
Competitive Landscape 71
Consumer Share Price Analysis 71
Table: Key Players in India's Food and Drink Sector, 2011 75
Table: Key Players in India's Mass Grocery Retail Sector - 2011 76
Company Analysis 77
Food 77
Hindustan Unilever Limited (HUL) 77
Gujarat Co-operative Milk Marketing Federation (Amul Dairy) 79
Britannia 81
Drink 84
PepsiCo India 84
United Breweries (UB) 86
Coca-Cola India 89
SABMiller India 91
Mass Grocery Retail 93
RPG Retail 93
Pantaloon Retail India 95
BMI Methodology 98
Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings 98
Table: Rewards 99
Table: Risks 100
Weighting 100
Table: Weighting 101
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary 102
Food & Drink 102
Mass Grocery Retail 102
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing 104
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 104
Sourcing 105
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