India Tourist Recovery Continues In Q111 Data released by the Indian Ministry of Tourism in April 2011 showed that the tourism industry continued to grow strongly in Q1 2011, building on the recovery experienced in the latter part of 2010. In the first three months of the year, arrivals reached 1.73mn, representing growth of 11.1% year-on-year (yo- y). February experienced a particularly high surge in arrivals, growing by an impressive 15.1% y-o-y to 692,000. We believe this high level of arrivals was largely due to the beginning of the Cricket World Cup in February, accounting for a slight dip in arrivals growth in March, to 7.4% y-o-y.
We expect this positive growth trend to continue in 2011, as the industry returns to pre-2008 levels. As such, we anticipate arrivals to reach 6.04mn in 2011, up from 5.42mn in 2010, although the risks to this forecast are to the upside, should the ongoing global economic recovery continue at its current pace.
Focus on Maharashtra
Maharashtra is India’s most popular state in terms of visitor arrivals, reflecting its position as one of the most heavily populated regions in the country. It is located in west-central India, with a long coastline containing several major ports and also a variety of popular beach locations. Maharashtra is a popular centre for domestic tourism but the state is aiming to increase the number of foreign visitor arrivals. As arrivals began to pick up in 2010, the state set itself an ambitious target of boosting tourist arrivals by 60% by 2015.
Strikes Take Place At Air India
A strike began at national carrier Air India on April 27 2011, disrupting around three-quarters of its flights. The strike was led by approximately 800 workers from Indian Airlines, which was merged with Air India in 2007. The former Indian Airlines workers claim that they are paid less than their counterparts from Air India, owing to differences in the way their salaries are calculated, with Air India pilots having a larger fixed salary component and Indian Airlines employees more reliant on pro rata payments for flight hours worked. As many flights have been cut during the industry downturn, salaries have suffered accordingly. While the Delhi High Court ruled against the strike, ongoing industrial action disrupted a high number of flights, forcing the airline to lay on special services for key routes or to rescue stranded passengers.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
India Tourism SWOT 6
India Political SWOT 7
India Economic SWOT 8
India Business Environment SWOT 9
Industry Forecast Scenario 10
Arrivals 10
Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2015 10
Expenditure 11
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2007-2015 11
Inbound Tourism 12
Table: Tourist Arrivals, 2007-2015 12
Outbound Tourism 16
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2007-2015 16
Market Overview – Travel 17
Commercial Airlines 17
Focus On Jet Airways 18
Focus On Kingfisher Airlines 19
Focus On Low-Cost Carriers 19
Table: Airlines’ Domestic Market Share, 2010 19
Improving Infrastructure 20
Cruises 21
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 22
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl) 22
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) 25
Market Overview – Hospitality 27
Hotels 27
Table: Hotels Data, 2007-2015 (‘000) 28
Accommodation Developments 28
Gaming 30
Special Focus: 2010 Commonwealth Games 31
Special Focus: Medical Tourism 32
H1N1 And H5N1 Virus Updates 33
Business Environment Outlook 35
Table: Asia Pacific Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings 35
BMI’s Security Ratings 35
Table: Asia Pacific Security Ratings 36
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 37
India’s Security Rating 37
City Terrorism Ratings 39
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index 40
South Asia Security Overview 41
Global Assumptions, Q311 53
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 53
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 54
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) 54
Developed States 55
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 55
Emerging Markets 56
Table: Emerging Markets’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 57
Consensus Forecasts 58
Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y) 58
Company Profiles 59
Jet Airways 59
National Aviation Company of India (Air India) 61
Taj Hotels 63
BMI Methodology 64
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 64
Tourism Industry 64
Tourism Ratings – Methodology 65
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators 66
Table: Weighting Of Components 67
City Terrorism Ratings 67
Table: City Terrorism Ratings Methodology 69
Sources 69
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