Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports. Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter.
The evaluation of the Limits of Potential Returns includes market elements that are specific to the banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the Limits of Potential Returns, the market elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the Risks to Realisation of Returns also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI’s assessment of long-term country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that takes into account the risks these elements are weighted 40% and 60% respectively.
Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements of the Limits of Potential Returns are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the Limits of Potential Returns, it usually implies that the banking sector is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the Risks to Realisation of Returns category, the market elements (ie: how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect competition within it and the Moody’s ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI’s long-term risk rating.
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Executive Summary 5
Table: Levels (IDRbn) 5
Table: Levels (US$bn) 5
Table: Levels At December 2010 5
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2011-2015 (%) 5
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011 6
Table: Projected Levels (IDRbn) 6
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn) 6
SWOT Analysis 7
Indonesia Commercial Banking SWOT 7
Indonesia Political SWOT 8
Indonesia Economic SWOT 9
Indonesia Business Environment SWOT 10
Business Environment Outlook 11
Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 11
Table: Indonesia’s Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating 11
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology 12
Table: Asia Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 13
Global Commercial Banking Outlook 14
Asia Banking Sector Outlook 18
Table: Banks’ Bond Portfolios 23
Table: Asia Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 24
Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios 25
Table: Anticipated Developments In 2011 26
Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits , 2009-2010(US$bn) 27
Table: Comparison Of Per Capita Deposits, 2010 (US$) 28
Table: Interbank Rates And Bond Yields 29
Indonesia Banking Sector Outlook 30
Economic Outlook 33
Table: Indonesia Economic Activity, 2008-2015 35
Competitive Landscape 36
Market Structure 36
Protagonists 36
Table: Protagonists In Indonesia’s Commercial Banking Sector. 36
Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe 36
List Of Banks 37
Table: 10 Largest Commercial Banks 37
Table: Other Indonesian Commercial Banks 37
Table: Foreign Banks 38
Company Profiles 40
Bank Mandiri 40
Table: Stock Market Indicators 41
Table: Balance Sheet (IDRmn, unless stated) 42
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) 42
Table: Key Ratios (%) 42
Bank Central Asia 43
Table: Stock Market Indicators 44
Table: Balance Sheet (IDRmn, unless stated) 44
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) 45
Table: Key Ratios (%) 45
Bank Rakyat Indonesia 46
Table: Stock Market Indicators 47
Table: Balance Sheet (IDRmn, unless stated) 47
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) 48
Table: Key Ratios (%) 48
Bank Internasional Indonesia 49
Table: Stock Market Indicators 50
Table: Balance Sheet (IDRmn, unless stated) 50
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) 51
Table: Key Ratios (%) 51
Bank Danamon Indonesia 52
Table: Stock Market Indicators 53
Table: Balance Sheet (IDRmn, unless stated) 53
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) 53
Table: Key Ratios (%) 54
CIMB Niaga 55
Pan Indonesia Bank 56
Bank Permata 57
Bank Tabungan Negara 58
Bank Negara Indonesia 59
Table: Stock Market Indicators 60
Table: Balance Sheet (IDRmn, unless stated) 60
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) 60
Table: Key Ratios (%) 61
BMI Banking Sector Methodology 62
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating 63
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale. 64
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 65
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