BMI View: A strong economy is expected to drive double-digit annual growth in pharmaceutical sales in Indonesia over our five-year forecast period. Multinationals are increasingly viewing the market as an attractive investment as economic and demographic factors move drug consumption up the value chain. Furthermore, the domestic pharmaceutical industry is looking to expand production and R&D capacity to capitalise on the opportunity.
Headline Expenditure Projections
?? Pharmaceuticals: IDR36,332bn (US$4.00bn) in 2010 to IDR40,191bn (US$4.57bn) in 2011; +10.6% growth in local currency terms and +14.2% in US dollar terms. Our forecast has been revised down moderately from Q311 due to macroeconomic factors.
?? Healthcare: IDR127,569bn (US$14.05bn) in 2010 to IDR140,143bn (US$15.93bn) in 2011; +9.9% growth in local currency terms and +13.4% in US dollar terms. Our forecast has been revised down from Q311 due to macroeconomic factors.
?? Medical devices: IDR2,758bn (US$304mn) in 2010 to IDR3,026bn (US$344mn) in 2011; +9.7% growth in local currency terms and +13.3% in US dollar terms. Our forecast has been revised down slightly from Q311 due to macroeconomic factors.
Business Environment Rating: BMI's
Key Trends And Developments
?? In July 2011, the US provided Indonesia with a US$1.1mn research grant through a new USAID project – Partnerships to Enhance Engagement in Research. The funding will be made available to Indonesian scientists participating in the US National Science Foundation research projects with US scientists in order to forge more scientific collaborations between the two countries. The funding is likely to be invested in biodiversity-related projects.
?? In August 2011, Kalbe Farma announced plans to build a generic drugs factory in line with its aim to increase production capacity by 30-50%. The building plan is subject to certification from the Food and Drug Monitoring Agency.
BMI Economic View: Indonesia registered robust real GDP growth of 6.5% y-o-y in Q111. This figure is highly impressive considering the high base effects in Q110 and underscores our view that domestic demand (in particular, investment-led demand) will drive the economy strongly in 2011. We continue to hold a sanguine outlook for the economy, noting that food and energy prices may moderate in the coming months, providing a boost to the domestic consumer. Meanwhile, given the strong Q111 print, we also caution upside risks to our 5.9% and 5.8% real GDP growth forecast for 2011 and 2012 respectively.
BMI Political View: A survey by the Indonesian Survey Circle also shows that President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's job approval rating fell to a new low of 47% in June 2011, owing to his failure to pass certain legislation and ill feeling over allegations surrounding his Democratic Party. This decline in popularity will make it increasingly difficult for the president to implement much-needed fuel subsidy reforms, which are needed to free up funds for infrastructure development.

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CONTENTS 3
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Indonesia Pharmaceutical And Healthcare Industry SWOT 7
Indonesia Political SWOT 8
Indonesia Economic SWOT 9
Indonesia Business Environment SWOT 10
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Rating 11
Table: Asia Pacific Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings For Q411 11
Rewards 12
Risks 13
Market Summary – Indonesia 14
Regulatory Regime 16
Intellectual Property Issues 19
Generic Drug Legislation 20
Labelling Requirements 21
Counterfeit and Substandard Drugs 21
Free Trade Agreements 23
Pricing Regime 25
Reimbursement Regime 26
Industry Trends and Developments 27
Epidemiology 27
Recent Public Health Developments 30
Table: UN Millennium Development Goals 31
Healthcare System 33
Healthcare System Reform 36
International Healthcare Collaborations 37
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector 38
Research and Development 39
Herbal Medicines 40
Medical Devices 41
Industry Forecast Scenario 42
Overall Market Forecast 42
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2007-2015 43
Key Growth Factors – Industry 44
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2007-2015 46
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2007-2015 46
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2007-2015 47
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic 48
Table: Indonesia – Economic Activity 51
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 52
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2007-2015 53
Patented Drug Market Forecast 54
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2007-2015 55
Generic Drug Market Forecast 56
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2007-2015 57
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 58
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2007-2015 59
Medical Device Market Forecast 60
Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2007-2015 61
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 62
Table: Exports and Imports Indicators 2007-2015 64
Other Healthcare Data and Forecasts 64
Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario 65
Competitive Landscape 66
Company Profiles 71
Soho Group 71
PT Kalbe Farma 72
PT Bio Farma 74
Kimia Farma 76
Combiphar PT 79
Sanofi-Aventis 80
Pfizer 82
Novartis 84
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) 86
Merck & Co 88
Bayer 90
Country Snapshot: Indonesia Demographic Data 92
Section 1: Population 92
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 92
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 93
Section 2: Education And Healthcare 93
Table: Education, 2000-2005 93
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 93
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 94
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 94
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2010 (US$) 94
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012 (IDR) 95
BMI Methodology 96
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 96
Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings 97
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 97
Ratings Overview 97
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators 98
Weighting 99
Table: Weighting Of Components 99
Sources 99
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