BMI View: Strong Economic Growth The Indonesian economy has been supportive of the ports and shipping sector this year, and we expect that to continue in 2012. Based on strong domestic consumption and investment, and a positive contribution from net exports, we see the overall economy outperforming, and generating strong demand for freight transport. It is necessary to sound a note of caution, however, over the overstretched state of the country's infrastructure. BMI now forecasts 2011 GDP growth of 5.9% (following the 46.1% expansion experienced in 2010). Our outlook for 2012 is for growth to ease fractionally to 5.8%. In the five years to 2015 we expect growth to average 6.1% per annum
Industry specific factors are also broadly positive. Granted, Indonesia is affected by overcapacity and low rates on transpacific and Asia-Europe long-haul routes, but on the other hand it is in a position to cash in on the strength of intra-Asian trade. A key factor, as mentioned above, is whether the government can clear out red tape and reduce political risk, to attract new investment in freight transport infrastructure.
Headline Industry Data
?? 2011 Tanjung Priok total tonnage forecast is +5.5%, average growth of 5.2% over our forecast period.
?? 2011 Palembang total tonnage forecast is +5.6%, average growth of 5.6% over our forecast period.
?? 2011 Tanjung Priok container forecast is +2.6%, average growth of 7.7% over our forecast period.
?? 2011 Palembang container forecast is +5.7%, average growth of 6.1% over our forecast period.
Key Industry Trends
Pertamina And PLN Plan Joint LNG Tanker Fleet - PT Pertamina, the state-owned oil and gas company, and PT PLN, the state electricity company, are planning to develop a network of liquid natural gas terminals, together with an LNG tanker fleet to serve them. Both companies are studying how many vessels they would need to cover the needs of eight planned terminals. Last year, it was estimated that Indonesia was responsible for 7.5% of Asia Pacific gas consumption, and 18.9% of regional gas production.
Pelindo II To Develop Terminal In Sorong, West Papua - State-owned port operator Pelabuhan Indonesia II plans to lead a consortium to build a new US$118mn container terminal at Sorong, West Papua, starting in 2012. The facility, to be known as the West Pacific Port could lower transport costs in the region, and is expected to halve distribution costs heading to the island of Papua. The port could serve as a transshipment hub for domestic Indonesian cargo, taking advantage of the country's new cabotage law, which stipulates that vessels operating in Indonesian waters must be domestically owned. This would allow foreign vessels to avoid Indonesia's main port of Tanjung Priok, which suffers from congestion at times of high demand.
Samudera Shipping Boosts Q2 Revenue - Indonesia's Samudera Shipping Line boosted Q2 revenues despite the tough operating environment for box shipping lines. Company revenue increased from US$89.96mn in Q210 to US$116.59mn in Q211. Profit after tax reached US$1.6mn, up from the US$642,000 that the line posted in Q210. The company was able to stay in the black in Q211 as a result of the line's domestic operations. The carrier's intra-Indonesia trade increased by 38.8%, with revenues for the company's Indonesia Domestic Container Shipping up 99.6%. The increase came on the back of 'improved freight rates, higher load factors, shorter vessel turnaround time and a series of service expansion and market penetration'.
Key Risks To Outlook We continue to highlight a downside risk to our outlook in the possibility that the country's ports will not be able to handle the increasing levels of traffic if sufficient investments are not made. Indonesia's main ports suffer from congestion and low efficiency levels, raising the fear that lines could avoid some of the country's key terminals, calling at more competitive neighbouring facilities. On the plus side the government has announced a range of new port projects, but much will depend on the speed at which they move forward to completion. The global economic climate has to count as another downside risk, given the range of concerns over sovereign debt levels in both Europe and the United States. Closer to home the giant Chinese economy may also experience a sharper slowdown than expected, with an impact on Indonesia's trade values. While we have highlighted the strength of Indonesia's internal demand, which insulates it from these adverse external headwinds, it cannot of course decouple entirely from external influences.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Indonesia Shipping SWOT 7
Indonesia Political SWOT 8
Indonesia Economic SWOT 9
Global Overview 10
Container Shipping: Overcapacity Threat to Haunt in the Mid Term, Asia-Europe Most Exposed 10
DRIVERS 10
BELLWETHERS 12
RATES 15
CAPACITY 18
Title: Newbuilds Due Online In The Mid Term 20
Dry-Bulk: No Recovery on the Horizon for Dry Bulk As Overcapacity Cloud Hangs Low 22
Drivers 22
Capacity 24
Rates 27
Liquid Bulk Shipping: At the Start of a Brutal Down Cycle 30
Drivers 30
Capacity 35
Rates 38
Industry Trends and Developments 41
KBN Plans North Jakarta Seaport 41
Pertamina And PLN Plan LNG Tanker Fleet 41
Pelindo II Delays Bond Issue 42
Consortium Plans West Pacific Port 43
China Interested In Port Investment 43
Diversification Offers Plenty And Endorsed By State 44
Four Seaports Planned In East Java 44
CMA CGM Wavering On Batam Port 45
Market Overview 46
Port of Jakarta 46
Overview 46
Shipping 46
Congestion 46
Terminals, Storage And Equipment 48
Expansions And Developments 49
Multi-Modal Links 49
Port of Palembang 50
Overview 50
Shipping 50
Congestion 50
Terminals, Storage And Equipment 51
Expansions And Developments 51
Multi-Modal Links 51
Industry Forecast 52
Macro: Indonesia's Economy Outperforms 52
Total Tonnage: 2011 Forecasts Held in 5%+ Range 52
Container Throughput: Low Box Growth at Tanjung Priok 52
Trade: Strong Growth Ahead 53
Table: Major Port Data, 2008-2015 53
Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2015 54
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2015 55
Table: Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 56
Table: Main Exports Partners, 2002-2009 56
Company Profiles 57
Samudera Shipping Line 57
Trada Maritime (TRAM) 60
Maersk Line 62
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) 68
CMA CGM 71
COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON) 74
Hapag-Lloyd 77
Evergreen Line 80
APL 83
CSAV 87
Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations) 91
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL) 95
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