Core Forecasts Tourist arrivals for the first four months of 2011 have shown strong growth, in line with BMI’s forecasts. Total arrivals for the January-April period stand at 2,323,039, up 7.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) according to figures from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). For 2011, therefore, we maintain our target of 9% growth in tourist arrival numbers, taking total tourist arrivals for the year to the 7.63mn mark. This target is in line with the government’s own aims to attract between 7.3mn and 7.7mn tourists to Indonesia throughout the year. After two strong years of growth in 2010 and 2011, our core forecast is then for Indonesia to consolidate recent gains with a more measured rate of tourist arrival growth, to reach a total of 8.72mn tourists by end-2015.
Tourist arrivals for 2010 were in line with BMI’s forecasts, with Indonesia welcoming just over 7mn tourists over the year, representing an increase of 9.76% y-o-y. This strength in visitor arrival numbers underlines our continued bullish stance towards Indonesian tourism for 2011 and beyond. Hotel occupancy rates also rose slightly, to an average of 50.6% for the year as a whole, according to information from the country’s Central Statistics Agency (BPS). Tourist expenditure for 2010 stood at an estimated US$7.6bn, which represents an annual increase of 20.7%.
Lion Air Float For 2012? Despite the relative disappointment of Indonesian flag carrier Garuda Indonesia’s February 2011 IPO, there are indications that fellow airline Lion Air is now considering a float on the Jakarta Stock Exchange, potentially in 2012. According to an April 2011 report by Reuters, Lion Air hopes such an IPO can raise in excess of US$1bn, to help fund the airline’s ambitious expansion plans.
In Lion Air’s favour is the fact that this it is the dominant airline operating in Indonesia at the present time, with more than 40% market share. Moreover, the company is in a fairly sound financial position, with revenues estimated at between US$700mn and US$800mn for FY10 and with strong growth predicted for the domestic Indonesia air travel industry over the coming years. Against this backdrop, BMI believes that a future Lion Air flotation could well be better subscribed than Garuda’s was earlier in 2011.
Further information on both Garuda Indonesia and Lion Air (including SWOT analysis) is available in the Company Monitor section at the end of this report.
Fellow low-cost carrier Air Asia Indonesia (AAI) has also said that it still plans to sell a 20% stake later in 2011. Company CEO Dharmadi says that the airline still plans to raise US$150-200mn via an IPO on the JKSE during the fourth quarter. The proceeds of the IPO will be used to buy new planes and fund growth, according to the company. AAI has a stated aim of increasing its fleet size to 30 (from 20) by 2015. Like Lion Air, AAI is arguably in better financial shape than Garuda, with the low-cost airline posting a 37% increase in revenues during 2010, to IDR2.76trn, with net profit up by 350% at IDR474bn.
Bullish Outlook For Hotel Industry For 2011-12, there are an expected 13 new hotel openings scheduled for Jakarta, according to the local hotel and restaurant industry association (PHRI), with a further six to be built in Surabaya. The PHRI has also stated that local players Santika and Sahid are to build some 40 new hotels across the archipelago over the coming two years, with the industry witnessing strong interest from foreign investors.
In this context, there is currently a great deal of construction activity in the high-end hotel sector on the island of Bali, which is due to host the 2013 APEC summit. To prepare for the arrival of high-ranking dignitaries to the island, there are several new high-end hotels scheduled for opening in 2011, including Starwood Hotels’ W Retreat & Spa Bali at Seminyak and Pullman Hotels’ Bali Legian Nirwana, which have both now opened. Other high-end hotel chains set to open new properties in Bali over the 2011-13 period include Banyan Tree, InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG), Ritz Carlton and Kempinski.
The arrival of additional high-end properties should do much to boost average room revenues for the country.
French hotel operator Accor has also announced plans to expand its Indonesian network, adding a further 21 hotels to the 13 new hotels on which it has already commenced construction across the archipelago. In total, these 34 new hotels will almost double Accor’s current property portfolio of 40 hotels. Further information on Accor’s Indonesian corporate strategy, together with company data and a SWOT analysis, is available in the Company Monitor section of this report.
Rounding out the optimism surrounding the Indonesian hospitality sector at present, in May 2011 luxury hotel chain Fairmont Hotels & Resorts announced plans to open the 380-room Fairmont Jakarta in 2014.

[Studien Infos ausblenden]

Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Indonesia Tourism SWOT 7
Indonesia Economic SWOT 7
Indonesia Political SWOT 8
Indonesia Business Environment SWOT 9
Industry Forecast Scenario 10
Arrivals 10
Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2015 (‘000, unless stated) 10
Accommodation 11
Table: Accommodation Data, 2007-2015 (‘000, unless stated) 12
Expenditure 12
Table: Expenditure Data, 2007-2015 13
Inbound Tourism 14
Table: Inbound Tourism Data, 2007-2015 15
Outbound Tourism 16
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2007-2015 16
Market Overview – Travel 18
Commercial Airlines 18
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 20
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl) 20
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) 23
Market Overview – Hospitality 25
Accommodation 25
H5N1 And H1N1 Virus Update 27
Business Environment Outlook 29
Table: Asia Pacific Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings 29
BMI’s Security Ratings 30
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings 30
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 31
Indonesia’s Security Ratings 31
City Terrorism Ratings 32
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index 33
South East Asia Security Overview 34
Global Assumptions, Q311 36
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 36
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 37
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) 37
Developed States 38
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 38
Emerging Markets 39
Table: Emerging Markets’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 40
Consensus Forecasts 41
Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y) 41
Company Monitor 42
Accor Asia Pacific 42
Garuda Indonesia 44
Lion Air 46
BMI Methodology 48
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 48
Tourism Industry 48
Tourism Ratings – Methodology 49
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators 50
Table: Weighting of Components 51
City Terrorism Ratings 51
Table: City Terrorism Ratings Methodology 53
Sources 53
[Inhaltsverzeichnis ausblenden]