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Inflation: Key Risk to Global OutlookÜbersetzung: Inflation Hauptrisikofaktoren für globale Perspektiven
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The Challenge Of Rising Commodity Prices
A combination of improving economic growth, loose
monetary policy, and supply-side considerations from
tight commodity markets is boosting consumer prices
worl.....
The Challenge Of Rising Commodity Prices A combination of improving economic growth, loose monetary policy, and supply-side considerations from tight commodity markets is boosting consumer prices worldwide. Inflationary pressures are being felt most keenly in emerging markets (EM), where policymakers will have to find a balance between tightening measures intended to contain prices on the one hand, and maintaining export competitiveness and sustaining growth on the other. Our core scenario is that headline inflation should not be so much of a worry as we approach H2 2011, as commodity prices ease off and EM policy tightens. But the risks of commodity price spikes and upward wage pressures should not be underestimated, and could yet create significant headwinds to the ongoing global recovery. Inflationary pressures are building across the Asia- Pacific region, with China's consumer price index (CPI) set to rise further from the 4.6% y-o-y December reading in the months ahead. Indonesia, which hiked it benchmark BI rate on February 4 to prevent real interest rates from turning increasingly negative, will be forced to do so again before long. Aside from higher food and commodity prices, hot money inflows into Asia are being multiplied by the broadly stable banking systems and strong growth opportunities. China, Indonesia, Vietnam and India are the most at risk from a near-term surge in price pressures. Rising inflationary pressures are creating policy dilemmas for Emerging European central banks. Wary of the rising interest rate differentials with developed economies, central banks in Central Europe and Turkey will tread carefully as they seek to avoid 'hot money' inflows over the course of 2011. However, we attribute higher inflation in the region largely to supply-side pressures and caution that a public backlash and U-turns on fiscal austerity cannot be ruled out entirely. Rising consumer inflation is having a pronounced impact on our outlook for political risk throughout the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Countries with elevated food price inflation and weak public finances are most at risk from experiencing large-scale public unrest in our view. The political situations in Egypt and Tunisia are still clouded with uncertainty, and Iran is a potential flashpoint of instability going forward. By contrast, countries throughout the Gulf Cooperation Council are least at risk from experiencing inflation-induced political upheaval. Not only is food price inflation markedly lower throughout the GCC, but living standards are also considerably higher. [Studien Infos ausblenden] |
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Inflation: Key Risk To Global Recovery 9 Executive Summary 9 The Challenge Of Rising Commodity Prices 9 Global Overview 10 Inflation 10 Key Risk To Global Markets 10 chart: Price Pressures Picking Up In EM 10 Global Inflation, % chg y-o-y Monetary Policy: Increasingly Divergent 10 Big Risks In Both Directions11 chart: Chasing Higher Returns In EM 11 Net Portfolio Flows, US$bn Table: Consumer Price Inflation, % chg y-o-y11 indicators: argentina, brazil, china, eurozone, germany, hong kong, india, indonesia, japan, malaysia, mexico, nigeria, russia, saudi arabia, singapore, south africa, south korea, taiwan, thailand, turkey, united kingdom, united states chart: Still Some Room Until Full Capacity Is Reached 12 Global Inflation & Output Gap chart: A Clear Sp lit Since Lehman Collapse12 Global CPI Indices, Rebased September 2008 = 100 TABLE : Consensus Forecasts12 indicators: 2011: bloomberg consensus, bmi 2012: bloomberg consensus, bmi Asset Class Views: Currencies Aside, Wary Of EM 13 chart: Fighting The Tide13 Foreign Reserves, US$bn Global Assumptions 14 The Outlook For 2011 14 Growth Solidifies, But Inflation Poses A Threat 14 table: Global Assump tions14 indicators: real gdp growth (%), consumer inflation (avg), interest rates (eop), exchange rates (avg), oil prices (avg) Developed States 15 TABLE : GLOBAL & REGIONAL REAL GD P GRO WTH % CHG Y-O-Y 15 indicators: world, developed states, emerging markets, asia ex-japan, latin america, emerging europe, sub-saharan africa, middle east and north africa developed market exchange rates: eurozone, japan, switzerland, united kingdom emerging market exchange rates: china, south korea, india, brazil, mexico, russia, turkey, south africa Emerging Markets 16 Table: DE VELO PED STATES REAL GD P GRO WTH FORECAST 16 indicators: developed states aggregate growth: g7, eurozone, eu-27 selected developed states: australia, austtria, belgium, canada, denmark, finland, france, germany, ireland, italy, japan, netherlands, norway, portugal, spain, sweden, switzerland, united kingdom, united states Table: EMERGING MARKETS AGGREGATE GRO WTH 17 indicators: emerging markets aggregate growth, latin america, argentina, brazil, mexico, middle east, africa, south africa, nigeria, saudi arabia, uae, egypt, emerging asia, china, hong kong, india, indonesia, malaysia, singapore, south korea, taiwan, thailand, emerging europe, russia, turkey, czech republic, hungary, poland TABLE : CONSENSUS FORECASTS 17 indicators: 2011: bloomberg consensus, bmi 2012: bloomberg consensus, bmi Commodities 18 Commodity Strategy 18 Key Themes For 2011 18 chart: Grains Outperforming In 2010 18 Relative Performance of Commodity Groups* S&PGS Sub-indices Theme 1: Commodities Will Head Higher, But Risks Remain 18 chart: Comm odity Prices To Remain Elevated In 2011 18 Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index Theme 2: Inflation, FX & Monetary Dynamics Could Result In Trade Policy Risks 18 Theme 3: Correlations To Weaken 19 chart: Back To More Normal Levels? 19 Correlation Between Copper & The Dow (2008-2010) Theme 4: Looking For Relative Value, Metals To Outperform 19 chart: Many Metals To Be In Deficit 19 Market Balance For Several Metals (kt) chart: Greater Supp lyExcept For Corn 19 Grains Stocks-To-Use Ratios (%) Theme 5: Precious Metals To Remain Bid 20 chart: Softs Loosening Slightly In 2011 20 Stocks-To-Use Ratios For Sugar, Cocoa & Coffee Theme 6: Agriculture Could Underperform, But Huge Upside Risks Exist 20 China 21 Food Price Inflation 21 Pressures To Ease In Medium Term 21 chart: Dragging It Along 21 China - Consumer Price Index (CPI)& Food Price Inflation (%) chart: Rapid Up tick of Late 21 China - Wholesale Price Index (WPI) Year-on-year % Rising Food Inflation: A Confluence of Factors 21 chart: Lower Stocks 22 China - Grains Stocks To Use Ratio (%) Inflationary Pressures To Ease 22 chart: Ticking Up Only Recently 22 China - Consumer Price Index (CPI) Year-on year % Wider Implications 22 Risks To Outlook 23 chart: Soybean In Largest Deficit 23 China - Grains & Softs Production Balance (‘000 tonnes) chart: Pork Vs Poultry 23 China - Meat Production Balance (‘000 tonnes) India 24 Overheating Risks Evident 24 Tightening Back On The Agenda 24 Business Monitor International Ltd 5 special report chart: A Food Phenomenon 24 India - Wholesale Price Inflation, % chg y-o-y chart: On The Up 24 India - Credit & Money Supply Growth, % chart: Still Low By Historical Standards 25 India - Real Lending Rates, % Implications For Forecasts 25 South East Asia 26 A Resurgent Region 26 Inflation Pressures Mounting 26 CPI Hotspots In Vietnam And Indonesia 26 chart: Runaway Inflation In The Making? 26 Consumer Price Inflation, % chg y-o-y Warm Spot For Singapore 27 chart: Under Control For Now 27 Consumer Price Inflation, % chg y-o-y Price Pressures Not So Troubling In Other Areas 27 chart: No Cause For Concern 27 South East Asia - Broad Money Supply Growth, % chg y-o-y Money Supply Growth ManageableFor Now 27 chart: Food Vulnerability Exposed 28 Food As Proportion Of CPI Basket, % Food Prices Starting To Be A Worry 28 chart: Watch Out 28 Asia - Policy Rate, % Mild Rate Hikes Across The Board 28 Eurozone 29 ECB On Guard 29 Inflation, Monetary Tightening Back In Focus 29 chart: In His Ow n Words: ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet 29 Selected Quotes from January 13 Press Conference chart: Credit Recovery Is On Track 29 Eurozone - Money Supply & Credit Growth Indicators chart: Headline Up , But Core Still Contained 30 Eurozone - Selected Inflation Indicators Positive Macro Outlook Underpins The Shift 30 chart: The Next Move Will Be Up 30 ECB & US Federal Reserve Policy Rates, % Table: EURO ZONE VAT CHANGES 30 indicators: finland, greece ireland, latvia, poland, portugal, romania,, slovakia, switzerland, spain, united kingdom chart: The Trend Is Upw ards 31 Eurozone - 5-year Interest Rate Swap, % Markets: Rate Expectations Will Be Crucial Across Asset Classes 31 chart: Futures Start Pricing In More Aggressive Hikes 31 90 Day Euribor Future, Dec 2011 Contract chart: Tighter Conditions Seen 31 Euribor 90 Day Future, Dec 2012 Contract Central And Eastern Europe 33 Policy Dilemmas Emerging 33 Implications Of Rising Inflation 33 chart: Staple Goods Weighing On Consumer Pockets 33 Europe - HICP Food Prices (Dec-09=100) chart: Only Gradually Ticking Higher 33 Europe - Core Inflation (excl energy and food prices), % chg y-o-y chart: Poorer Countries To Be Hit The Most 34 Europe - COICOP Food & Transport Costs Weightings in HICP Index Mostly Supply-Driven Inflation 34 chart: Keep An Eye On Social Stability 34 Europe - Short-Term Political Risk Ratings (LHS Represents Overall BMI Country Ranking) Watch Out For Political Unrest 34 chart: Energy Costs Rising 35 Europe - HICP Transport Prices (Dec-09=100) Fiscal Consolidation At Risk? 35 Risks To Outlook 35 Middle East And North Africa 37 An Angry Neighbourhood 37 Inflation And Political Risk 37 chart: Tracking Wheat Prices Closely 37 MENA - Top Global Importers Of Wheat chart: Egypt And Iran Most At Risk 37 MENA - Ratings For ‘Inflation’ Sub-Component in Short-Term Political Risk Ratings chart: Sp otting The Outliers 38 MENA - Ratings For ‘Social Unrest’ Sub-Component In Short-Term Political Risk Ratings GCC Less At Risk 38 chart: GCC Less At Risk 38 MENA - CPI Figures, % chg y-o-y Who Can Absorb The Price Shocks? 38 Africa 40 Rising Commodity Prices 40 Consequences And Implications For SSA 40 chart: Near Record Levels 40 FAO Food General Food Price Index chart: A Mixed Bag 40 Food Price Index Sub-Groups (% Change YTD) Food Prices 40 chart: Deficit Is The Norm 41 Africa - Net Trade Position In Food* 2001-2008 (% of GDP) Which Countries Are Most Exposed? 41 chart: An Incomp lete Picture? 41 Africa - Nominal GDP/Capita, Average 2001-2010 (US$) Business Monitor International Ltd 7 special report chart: Wealthy Countries Are Less Exposed 42 Africa - Weighting Of Food In CPI (%) How Will The Burden Be Carried? 42 chart: Moving Higher From Here 42 Africa - Regional Inflation, % chg y-o-y Latin America 43 Central Bank Credibility Tests 43 Key Risks And Core Scenarios For 2011 43 chart: Food Prices End 2010 At Record Highs 43 UNFAO World Food Price Index Market Risks: Policy Dilemmas Ahead 43 chart: Currency Strength Across The Region 43 Latin America - Currencies, Rebased (2009=100) chart: Inflation Expectations Sp iked 44 Chile - 2 Year Inflation Breakevens Macro Risks: The Winners And Losers 44 chart: Local Debt Selling Off 44 Latin America - Brazilian Benchmark 10-Year Bond, YTM (Top) & Colombian Benchmark 10-Year Bond, YTM (Bottom) Political Risks: Strength Of Government Is Key 44 chart: Already At Risk 45 Central America - Short & Long-Term Political Risk Ratings chart: Extractives Looking Strong 45 Latin America - Real GDP Growth Forecasts (%) 2011-14, By Category [Inhaltsverzeichnis ausblenden] |
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