Core Views
The uptick in crude oil prices since the start of 2011 will benefit Iran’s economy substantially through investment-focused fiscal stimulus, but we expect the government’s revenues to slow down in FY 2012/13 and FY 2013/14, boding ill for the sustainability of government- driven economic activity over the medium term.
We see growth and investment opportunities in Iran, highlighting the pharmaceuticals, telecoms and autos industries as having the most potential. Infrastructure will remain lacklustre, while the shipping and oil & gas sectors will suffer greatly from sanctions The removal of centrist and opposition politicians from Iran’s political scene signifies a consolidation of conservative political power, which could result in another wave of popular demonstrations from those who oppose the current regime.
Given the hard-line stance of the regime, along with the West’s unwillingness to use military force (barring an existential threat), we
expect the West to maintain economic sanctions.
Major Forecast Changes
We have revised up our forecast for producer price inflation from 20.0% to 35.0%, owing to higher-than-expected prints.
We have revised our currency forecast to reflect our expectation that the rial will depreciate steadily rather than experience a sudden devaluation. Our 2011 and 2012 average forecasts are now IRR 10,602/US $ and IRR 11,284/US $ respectively.
Key Risks To Outlook
A renewal of popular protests could result in downside risk to our growth forecasts.
Political unrest in large oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia could cause a more pronounced spike in global energy prices, leading to upside risk to our growth forecasts and downside risk to our fiscal deficit forecasts.
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Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Major Forecast Changes5
Key Risk To Outlook5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Ratings 7
Domestic Politics 8
Scenarios For Political, Economic And Social Change
Iran is undergoing a period of political, economic and social tensions, and we do not believe the current situation will be sustainable We have outlined a number of scenarios for change, along with regional and global implications
Table: Political Overview 8
Long-Term Political Outlook 11
The Next 10 Years: Four Scenarios For Political Evolution
Iran faces numerous domestic and external challenges that will exert considerable pressure on the regime over the coming decade
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Economic Risk Ratings 13
Economic Activity 14
Fiscal Stimulus Unlikely To Boost Economy
Iran’s economy will experience marginal growth rates going forward, boosted primarily by high oil prices
Table: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 14
Monetary Policy 16
Inflation To Remain Highest In Region
Both consumer and producer price inflation in Iran remain elevated thus far in 2011, and we expect this trend to continue over the coming quarters
Table: MONETARY POLICY 16
Exchange Rate Policy 17
IRR : Steady Depreciation Ahead
Our near-term outlook for the Iranian rial is neutral The currency recovered from a major sell-off in June, and while we foresee a general depreciatory trend in the medium term, the unit is holding steady for the moment
Table: EXCHANGE RATE 17
Key Sector Outlook 18
Finding Relative Value Across Sectors
Although growth opportunities appear to be minimal, with real GDP growth projected at just 12% in 2011, we believe certain sectors will fare better than others
Table: Iran Vehicle Sales 2006-2015 18
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 21
The Iranian Economy To 2020 21
Huge Challenges Ahead
The inability of Iran to fully exploit its enormous oil and gas wealth will keep real GDP growth rates in the 1-3% range over the next 10 years Iran’s youthful demographics mean that private consumption will primarily drive this growth
TABLE: IRAN – LON G-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS 21
Chapter 4: Business Environment 23
SWOT Analysis 23
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings 23
Business Environment Outlook 24
Institutions 24
Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings 24
Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating 25
Infrastructure 26
Table: Labour Force Quality 26
Market Orientation 27
Table: Middle East and Africa – Annual FDI Inflows 28
Table: Trade And Investment Ratings 29
Operational Risk 30
TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS, US $MN 30
Chapter 5: Key Sectors 31
Pharmaceuticals 31
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2007-2015 32
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2007-2015 32
Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2007-2015 33
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2007-2015 34
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2007-2015 34
Telecommunications 35
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts 35
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed-Line – Historical Data & Forecasts 36
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts 36
Other Key Sectors 38
Table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators 38
Table: Autos Sector Key Indicators 38
Table: Oil and Gas Sector Key Indicators 38
Table: Defence and Security Sector Key Indicators 38
Table: Freight Transport Sector Key Indicators 39
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions 41
Global Outlook 41
Second Half Risks
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS 41
Table: EMERGING MARKETS AGGREGATE GROWTH 42
Table: DEVELOPED STATES REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST 43
Table: REAL GDP GROWTH CONSENSUS FORECASTS 43
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