Iran Power Report Q1 2012

BMI View: The prospect that Iran will develop its nuclear capacity is central to the country’s power industry and its ability to meet its energy requirements, but there is no certainty of continuing availability, let alone additional reactors, for capacity expansion. Global resistance to the nuclear programme will persist and sanctions will make it hard to maintain a high level of investment. Iran would benefit from more rapid development of its renewables potential as a means of reducing oil and gas dependency.
As a result of significant state investment in the generation sector, a number of new power plants (mainly hydroelectric and combined-cycle) have come online in recent years. Conventional thermal sources are expected to remain the dominant fuel for electricity generation, with many power projects that are currently under construction due to use gas. Expansion of Iran’s nuclear capacity is planned, but external political resistance means it is far from certain whether further reactors will be built.
Key trends and recent developments in the Iranian electricity market include:
• During the period 2011-2016, Iran’s overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 2.17%, reaching 221 terawatt hours (TWh). Driving this growth is an annual 2.89% gain in gas-fired generation and a 1.76% rise in hydropower, accompanied by the buildup of output from the country’s first nuclear power station. Non-hydro renewables are expected to deliver average annual supply growth of 4.31%.
• With Iran’s 2011 real GDP assumed to have increased by 0.9%, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 2.3% between 2011 and 2021. The population is expected to rise from the current level of 74.8mn to 81.6mn during the period 2011-2021, and net power consumption looks set to increase from 156.2TWh to 178.7TWh by 2016, rising further to 209.8TWh by 2021. During the period 2011-2016, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 2.4%, but this will accelerate later in the decade to average 3.2% in 2016-2021.
• Thanks partly to the projected rise in net generation, growth of which barely matches the underlying demand trend, Iran’s power supply surplus is likely to decrease over the mediumterm, although the country is keen to develop further its power export capability. A slight rise in the percentage of transmission and distribution losses from an estimated 18.5% in 2011 will do little to help balance the market. The estimated net export capability in 2011 is put at 4.2TWh, but could be no more than 0.2TWh by 2016.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Iran Power SWOT 6
Global Industry Overview 7
Regional Industry Overview 11
Industry Forecast Scenario 16
Iran Snapshot (Macro) 16
Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data 16
Country Snapshot: Power Sector 16
Iran Forecast Scenario 17
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity 17
Table: Iran Total Generation Data 17
Table: Iran Total Electricity Generation Long Term Forecasts 20
Table: Iran Electricity Generation Capacity Data 23
Table: Iran Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts 25
Electricity Consumption 30
Table: Iran Total Consumption Data 30
Table: Iran Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts 30
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports 31
Table: Iran Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data 31
Table: Iran Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts 32
Table: Iran Trade Data 32
Table: Iran Trade Data And Forecasts 32
Key Policies/Market Structure 34
Regulation and Competition 34
Business Environment 36
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings 36
Mea Power Risk/Return Ratings 36
Iran Power Risk/Reward Ratings 40
Rewards 40
Risks 40
Competitive Landscape 42
Glossary of Terms 43
Table: Glossary of Terms 43
Methodology And Sources 44
Industry Forecasts 44
Power Industry - Data Methodology 45
Generation and Consumption Data 45
Electricity Generation Capacity Data 46
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 47
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators 49
Sources 50
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