Israel Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012

BMI View: Over the next decade, Israel is set to benefit from one of the Middle East’s most exciting hydrocarbon growth stories. While gas production is set to rocket, strong potential also exists for oil – both in the form of deep offshore reservoirs and a pilot scheme for oil shale, which could potentially unlock several billion barrels of reserves.
We highlight the following trends and developments in Israel’s oil and gas sector:
?? BMI believes Israeli gas consumption declined slightly in 2011 owing to attacks on the gas import pipeline from Egypt. However, the start-up of production at offshore fields will significantly boost consumption, as Israeli energy demand becomes more reliant on gas. Consumption will rise from a little over 3bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011 to over 20bcm by 2018.
?? We forecast production to reach just under 30bcm by 2021, assuming the Leviathan field comes onstream by 2017.
?? Israel will import small quantities of LNG in 2012 and 2013 to compensate for the decline in output from Mari-B and gas volumes from Noa. However, we see Israeli emerging as an liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter by 2017.
?? Israeli oil consumption is set to decline substantially from a high of around 244,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2013 to under 210,000b/d by 2021. We do not expect a rise in Israel’s 220,000b/d refining capacity over the forecast period.
?? Oil production is negligible, but the successful commercialisation of Leviathan’s oil or the pilot onshore shale oil project present long-term upside risks.
Israel’s dependence on imports of crude oil and refined products leads to high volatility in the country’s import costs. Our assumptions of slower growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis, clearly pose a threat to global oil demand. We assume OPEC basket oil prices to fall from US$101.90 per barrel (bbl) in 2011 to US$99.38/bbl in 2012, thus creating upside risk to the Israeli macroeconomic outlook.

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BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Israel Oil and Gas SWOT 6
Global Energy Market Outlook 7
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016 10
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016 11
Regional Energy Market Outlook 12
Oil Supply And Demand 12
Table : Middle East Region Oil Consumption, (000b/d) 2008-2016 13
Table : Middle East Region Oil Production, (000b/d) 2008-2016 14
Oil: Downstream 15
Table : Middle East Region Refining Capacity, (000b/d) 2008-2016 15
Gas Supply And Demand 16
Table : Middle East Region Gas Consumption, (bcm) 2008-2016 16
Table : Middle East Region Gas Production, (bcm) 2008-2016 17
Liquefied Natural Gas 18
Table: Middle East Net LNG Exports (bcm) 18
Israel Energy Market Overview 19
Table: Israel – Upstream Projects Database 20
Industry Forecast Scenario 21
Table: Israel Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 21
Oil and Gas Reserves 22
Oil Supply and Demand 23
Gas Supply And Demand 24
LNG 24
Refining And Oil Products Trade 25
Revenues/Import Costs 25
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 25
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 26
Oil Refineries 26
Oil Pipelines 26
Gas Storage Facilities 26
Gas Pipelines 26
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings 27
Middle East Region 27
Composite Scores 27
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating 27
Upstream Scores 28
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating 28
Downstream Scores 29
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating 29
Competitive Landscape 30
Executive Summary 30
Table: Key Players – Israeli Oil And Gas Sector 31
Overview/State Role 31
Government Policy 32
Licensing Rounds 33
International Energy Relations 34
China 34
Egypt 34
Table: Key Downstream Players 34
Company Monitor 35
Noble Energy 35
Oil Refineries Ltd – Summary 38
Delek Group – Summary 38
Sonol – Summary 38
Paz – Summary 39
Zion Oil & Gas – Summary 39
Bontan Oil & Gas – Summary 40
ATP Oil & Gas – Summary 40
Others – Summary 40
Appendix: Oil And Gas Long-Term Forecasts 42
Regional Oil Demand 42
Table : Middle East Region Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2014-2021 42
Regional Oil Supply 43
Table : Middle East Region Oil Production (000b/d), 2014-2021 43
Regional Refining Capacity 44
Table : Middle East Region Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2014-2021 44
Regional Gas Demand 45
Table : Middle East Region Gas Consumption (bcm), 2014-2021 45
Regional Gas Supply 46
Table : Middle East Region Gas Production (bcm), 2014-2021 46
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 47
Glossary Of Terms 48
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 49
Ratings Overview 49
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 50
Indicators 50
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 50
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 51
BMI Methodology 53
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 53
Energy Industry 53
Cross checks 54
Sources 54
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