The Italian defence sector is still facing similar pressures to those of many other EU countries. Ongoing economic troubles – including fears for the quality of Italian sovereign debt – are leading governments across the continent to cut defence budgets. The Italians are no exception, as they intend to cut both investment in new equipment and the actual staffing levels of their military, despite new commitments in the Libyan conflict. This overall atmosphere has led to a significant drop in the profitability of Italy's largest defence firm, Finmeccanica, which saw profits fall by nearly a quarter over 2010.
With regards to Libya, the Italian government has committed to providing significant amounts of aid and funding to the Libyan rebel government, according to reports from Reuters. Rome has decided to provide up to EUR400mn (US$586mn) in cash and fuel aid to the rebels, which is backed by frozen Libyan state assets in Europe. Most of the aid will be provided in cash, though some EUR150mn in fuel aid will also be provided. The Italian government said that they have US$8bn in Libyan assets frozen in Italy alone, which should help fund a soft loan scheme to aid the rebels.
Due to the ongoing conflict, waves of refugees are entering Italy. Authorities reported that 667 refugees landed on the Italian island of Lampedusa on Saturday June 11 alone. The border guard providing the figures also said that four more boats are currently on their way, including two which appear to be in trouble and which will be rescued by Italian border officials. Most of the people on the boats are sub- Saharan migrant workers who had lived in Libya prior to the outbreak of civil war. In the wake of the fighting, many have chosen to progress to Europe instead of return home.
Italian firm AgustaWestland has said that it is seeking to play a major role in Turkey's multi-billion dollar program to acquire new light utility helicopters. The main competitor for the bid is US firm Sikorsky, but the Italians are hoping that offers of technology transfer and a willingness to jointly develop an original model will swing the tender process in their favour. The firm recently lost a US$3.5bn tender competition to Sikorsky for heavier utility helicopters for the Turkish military.
Finmeccanica's results for 2010 were largely negative, according to the firm's full year financial reports. The firm posted a net profit of EUR557mn in 2010 – compared to EUR718mn in 2009. This poor profit performance was, however, accompanied by revenue growth and a 7.8% jump in the value of outstanding orders. Outstanding orders hit EUR48.7bn in 2010, compared to EUR45.1bn a year earlier. The year was also the first time in the company's history that new order value surpassed EUR22bn – despite the very adverse market conditions for defence firms, which has seen other firms struggle to secure new business.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Italy Security SWOT 6
Italy Political SWOT 7
Italy Economic SWOT 7
Global Political Outlook 8
Japan After The Quake 9
Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea 10
Wild Cards To Watch 14
Europe Security Overview 17
Europe In A Global Context 17
Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade 17
Security Risk Ratings 24
BMI’s Security Ratings 24
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings 24
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 25
City Terrorism Ratings 26
Table: BMI’s Western Europe City Terrorism Index 27
Political Outlook 28
Italy Security Overview 31
Internal Security Situation 31
Organised Crime 31
Timeline: Internal Threats 33
Table: Insurgent Groups 36
External Security Situation 37
International Terrorism 37
Latest Developments 39
Timeline: External Threats 40
Armed Forces And Government Spending 45
Armed Forces 45
Defence Posture 45
Defence Reform 45
International Deployments 47
Table: Italy’s Foreign Deployments 48
Coordination And Joint Operations 49
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 50
Market Structure 51
Arms Trade 53
Defence And Procurement 57
Table: Italy’s Key Defence Players 64
Industry Background 64
Procurement Background 66
Industry Forecast Scenario 68
Armed Forces 68
Table: Italy’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 68
Table: Italy’s Manpower Available For Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 68
Government Expenditure 70
Table: Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015 70
Table: Italy’s Defence Expenditure Scenario, Changing % of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 71
Defence Trade 73
Table: Italy’s Defence Exports, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 73
Table: Italy’s Defence Imports, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 73
Table: Italy’s Defence Trade Balance, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 74
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 74
Macroeconomic Forecast 74
Table: Italy – Economic Activity, 2008-2015 76
Company Profiles 77
AgustaWestland 77
Avio 80
Fincantieri 82
Finmeccanica 84
MBDA 88
Country Snapshot: Italy Demographic Data 90
Section 1: Population 90
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 90
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 91
Section 2: Education And Healthcare 91
Table: Education, 2002-2005 91
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 91
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 92
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 92
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012 92
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 93
Methodology 94
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 94
Defence Industry 94
City Terrorism Rating 96
Table: Methodology 98
Sources 98
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