The Italian economy remains anchored on the road to recovery, but a return to previous trend growth rates seems unlikely for now. Clearly the Italian economy is struggling to regain momentum, and as such we hold to our forecast that the economy will grow at a fairly tepid 1.6% in 2011.There are several reasons why growth is not expected to filter down to consumer spending in the food and drink sector. In particular, large parts of the Italian population tend to display a lack of dynamism and willingness to experiment with new products. Many Italian consumers have a strong bias towards well-known and longestablished brands, making market entry difficult and limiting opportunities for revenue growth through premiumisation and product development.
Headline Industry Data (local currency)
?? 2011 per capita food consumption = +1.8%; forecast to 2015 = +7.6%
?? 2011 alcoholic drink sales = +3.6%; forecast to 2015 = +15.1%
?? 2011 soft drink sales = +2.1% ; forecast to 2015 = +12.8%
?? 2011 mass grocery retail sales = +3.1%; forecast to 2015 = +17.1%
Key Industry Trends & Developments
Lactalis Launches Full Bid for Parmalat – French dairy leader Lactalis has recently launched a full takeover bid worth EUR3.38bn for the entire business of its Italian rival Parmalat. After looking at the offer and an analysis of the bid from advisers Goldman Sachs, Parmalat said its directors had ‘unanimously concluded’ that Lactalis had not reflected ‘the value of Parmalat in the context of a change of control transaction’. Parmalat has played little part in the ongoing round of consolidation within the European dairy sector, which has seen it lose ground to some of its rivals and poses questions about its competiveness over the longer term.
Esselunga Performance Highlights Price-Sensitive Nature of Retail Sector – Italian grocery retailer Esselunga has recently posted steady sales growth for 2010 against a backdrop of weak domestic demand. The firm's overall sales increased by 5% to reach EUR6.54bn while same-store sales advanced by 2%. The retailer’s performance suggests that the overall Italian grocery market declined by around 2% during the year, implying that the results were relatively strong on a comparative basis. However, the falling profits underline that it has not escaped the impact of the difficult operating environment, with the firm choosing to cut prices to hang on to price-sensitive shoppers and stomach the necessary hit to its margins.
Key Risk to Outlook
Double Dip – The principal risk to our forecasts is the prospect of a further slowdown in economic growth. The government has secured parliamentary approval for a EUR25bn fiscal austerity package designed to get Italy's public finances back on to a more secure footing. However, we think there is a chance that this could exacerbate already weak domestic demand and could risk sending the economy back into recession.
External Weakness – Demand across the eurozone is still fairly subdued, and with fiscal consolidation programmes being proposed across the bloc, export orders could slump significantly over the medium term. This, given that the export sector is a key engine for growth, could impede Italy's economic recovery.

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BMI Industry view .. 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Italy Food Industry SWOT 9
Italy Drink Industry SWOT 10
Italy Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT . 11
Business Environment 12
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views .. 12
Table: BMI Food & Drink Core Views 17
Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings . 18
Table: Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q3 2011 . 21
Italy Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating . 22
Macroeconomic Outlook 23
Table: Italy – Economic Activity . 25
Industry Forecast Scenario 26
Consumer Outlook 26
Food. 28
Total Food Consumption 28
Italy Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts 28
Canned Food 29
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts . 29
Confectionery 30
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts . 30
Drink 31
Soft Drinks . 31
Table: Soft Drink Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts . 32
Alcoholic Drinks . 33
Mass Grocery Retail 34
Table: Italy Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format 35
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type . 35
Trade .. 36
Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance – Historical Data & Forecasts 36
Food . 37
Key Industry Trends And Developments 37
Perfetti Van Melle Enters Snacks Sector . 39
Barilla Offloads German Bakery Chain To Focus On Faster-Growing Units .. 39
Unilever Sells Italian Frozen Food Division . 40
Ferrero Capitalises On Travel Bug .. 41
Market Overview .. 41
Overview Of Food Sector 41
Prepared Food . 42
Confectionery 42
Organic 43
Meat, Fish And Dairy .. 43
Drink 44
Key Industry Trends And Developments 44
Italian Wines Look To Export Markets 44
Refresco Invests In Private Label Soft Drinks .. 44
Lavazza Focusing On Capsules And Emerging Markets . 45
Campari's AcquisitionsFocus On High Growth US But Conflicts With Our Emerging Market View 46
Bottled Water Import Legislation Challenged By EC .. 48
Market Overview .. 48
Hot Drinks . 48
Soft Drinks . 49
Table: Soft Drinks Sales Breakdown In Italy By Value (%) .. 49
Alcoholic Drinks . 50
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Sales Breakdown In Italy By Value (%) 50
Mass Grocery Retail .. 51
Key Industry Trends And Developments 51
Esselunga Results Highlight Price Sensitivity Of Italian Retail 51
La Rinascente Acquired By CRC Of Thailand . 52
Private Labels Gaining Market Share.. 53
Retail Sector Difficult To Navigate 53
Market Overview .. 54
Table: Structure Of Italy's Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number of Outlets . 56
Table: Sales Value By Format In Italy's Mass Grocery Retail Market (US$mn) . 57
Table: Sales Value By Format In Italy's Mass Grocery Retail Market (EURmn). 57
Table: Annual Average Sales Per Outlet By Format (US$mn) . 57
Competitive Landscape .. 58
Consumer Share Price Analysis . 58
Key Players .. 61
Key Players In Italy's Food Sector . 61
Key Players In Italy's Drink Sector 62
Key Players In Italy's Mass Grocery Retail Sector 63
Company Analysis. 65
Food . 65
Gruppo Galbani (Lactalis) 65
Perfetti van Melle .. 66
Gruppo Barilla 68
Carapelli Firenze SE 70
Drink . 72
Gruppo Campari . 72
Birra Peroni (SABMiller) .. 74
Mass Grocery Retail . 76
Conad .. 76
BMI Food & Drink Methodology .. 78
Table: Rewards 79
Table: Risks .. 80
Weighting .. 80
Table: Weighting 81
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary .. 82
Food & Drink . 82
Mass Grocery Retail 82
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing . 84
Italy Food & Drink Report Q3 2011
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 5
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 84
Sourcing . 85
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