Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports. Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter.
The evaluation of the Limits of Potential Returns includes market elements that are specific to the banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the Limits of Potential Returns, the market elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the Risks to Realisation of Returns also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI’s assessment of long-term country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that takes into account the risks these elements are weighted 40% and 60% respectively.
Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements of the Limits of Potential Returns are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the Limits of Potential Returns, it usually implies that the banking sector is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the Risks to Realisation of Returns category, the market elements (ie: how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect competition within it and the Moody’s ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI’s long-term risk rating.
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Executive Summary 5
Table: Levels (JPYbn) 5
Table: Levels (US$bn) 5
Table: Levels At April 2011 5
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2011-2015 (%) 6
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011 6
Table: Projected Levels (JPYbn) 6
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn) 7
SWOT Analysis 8
Japan Commercial Banking SWOT 8
Japan Political SWOT 9
Japan Economic SWOT 10
Japan Business Environment SWOT 11
Business Environment Outlook 12
Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 12
Table: Japan’s Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating 12
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology 13
Table: Asia Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 14
Global Commercial Banking Outlook 15
Asia Banking Sector Outlook 19
Table: Banks’ Bond Portfolios 24
Table: Asia Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 25
Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios 26
Table: Anticipated Developments In 2011 27
Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits , 2009-2010(US$bn) 28
Table: Comparison Of Per Capita Deposits, 2010 (US$) 29
Table: Interbank Rates And Bond Yields 30
Japan Banking Sector Outlook 31
Economic Outlook 34
Table: Japan Economic Activity, 2008-2015 36
Competitive Landscape 37
Market Structure 37
Protagonists 37
Table: Protagonists In Japan’s Commercial Banking Sector 37
Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe 37
List Of Banks 38
Table: Full Japanese Bankers’ Association Members 38
Table: Associate Japanese Bankers’ Association Members 42
Company Profiles 44
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ 44
Table: Stock Market Indicators 46
Table: Balance Sheet (JPYmn, unless stated) 46
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) 47
Table: Key Ratios (%) 47
Mizuho Bank 48
Table: Stock Market Indicators 49
Table: Balance Sheet (JPYmn, unless stated) 49
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) 49
Table: Key Ratios (%) 50
Mizuho Corporate Bank 51
Table: Stock Market Indicators 52
Table: Balance Sheet (JPYmn, unless stated) 52
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) 53
Table: Key Ratios (%) 53
Resona 54
Table: Stock Market Indicators 55
Table: Balance Sheet (JPYmn, unless stated) 55
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) 56
Table: Key Ratios (%) 56
Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation 57
Table: Stock Market Indicators 58
Aozora Bank 59
Table: Stock Market Indicators 60
Table: Balance Sheet (JPYmn, unless stated) 60
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) 60
Table: Key Ratios (%) 61
BMI Banking Sector Methodology 62
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating 63
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale. 64
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 65
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