Japan’s security position has remained almost unchanged for quite some time and there seems no likelihood that it will change in the near future. Since the end of World War II, Japan has lived under a US defence shield and within a constitution that very severely limits its development of military forces.
As a result of the Tohoku earthquake in early 2011, the government deployed 100,000 out of Japan's 240,000-strong Self Defense Forces (SDF) in what was the military's biggest mobilisation since World War II. The SDF has thus been given a major publicity boost, and this could increase its prestige.
Previously, Japanese society held an ambivalent attitude to the SDF because of the legacy of World War II. In future, there may be less resistance to seeing the SDF deployed abroad for disaster relief. The country faces virtually no internal threats but does worry about several external scenarios. Chief among these is the risk of some form of attack from its highly unpredictable North Korean neighbour.
There are also long standing border disagreements with Russia to the north, as well as China and South Korea.
Japan has become increasingly concerned by China’s more muscular approach, typified by the movement of Chinese naval vessels very close to Japan’s southern territorial waters in April 2011. Tensions with China also exist over the disputed islands (and the adjoining gas field) in the East China Sea. In September 2010, Japan had detained (but later released) a Chinese trawler captain for interfering with Japanese patrol ships.
The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) government has continued a steady policy direction in relation to defence very much along the lines that had been espoused by the LDP before. The position of US forces on Okinawa and their planned redeployment to another part of that island has tended to dominate the government mind over the past 12 months.
The political situation overall is quite unstable, however, and the Prime Minister’s position is very much in question. The problem lies in the economic condition of the country and the inability of either side of politics to find a politically palatable solution. So much so that neither party seemed prepared to take the first steps for fear of losing popularity. Defence expenditure and procurement programs are proposed by funding is caught up in the broader economic malaise.

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Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Japan Security SWOT . 6
Japan Defence Industry SWOT .. 6
Japan Political SWOT 7
Japan Economic SWOT . 7
Global Political Outlook . 8
Japan After The Quake .. 9
Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea 10
Wild Cards To Watch 14
North East Asia Security Overview .. 16
The Geopolitical Importance Of North East Asia .. 16
Flashpoints And Faultlines In North East Asia 17
The Evolution Of North East Asia .. 24
Security Risk Ratings .. 27
BMI’s Security Ratings 27
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings . 27
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index . 28
Japan’s Security Ratings. 28
City Terrorism Rating .. 29
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index . 30
Political Overview 31
Domestic Politics 31
Long-Term Political Outlook 33
Security Overview .. 37
Internal Security Situation 37
Table: Japan – Non-State Armed Groups .. 38
External Security Situation .. 38
Territorial Disputes .. 39
US-Japan Relations .. 40
Relations With North Korea And China .. 40
Armed Forces And Government Spending . 42
Armed Forces .. 42
Normalisation Of Japan’s Defence Forces 42
Defence Budget 44
International Deployments . 45
Weapons Of Mass Destruction . 45
Market Overview .. 47
Table: Defence Research And Development (R&D) As % Of Government R&D Budget, Selected Developed States .. 47
Industry Trends And Developments .. 48
Procurement Trends And Developments . 49
Competitive Landscape 50
Industry Forecast Scenario 52
Armed Forces .. 52
Table: Japan’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) .. 52
Table: Japan’s Manpower Available For Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) .. 52
Defence Expenditure . 52
Table: Japan’s Defence Expenditure And Employment, 2008-2015 .. 53
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 54
Defence Trade .. 54
Table: Japan’s Defence Exports, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 55
Table: Japan’s Defence Imports, 2009-2015 (US$mn) 55
Table: Japan’s Defence Trade Balance, 2009-2015 (US$mn) .. 56
Macroeconomic Forecast .. 56
Table: Japan – Economic Activity, 2008-2015 60
Company Profiles 61
Fuji Heavy Industries (FHI) . 61
Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries (IHI) . 62
Kawasaki Heavy Industries (KHI) . 64
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) 66
Country Snapshot: Japan Demographic Data 68
Section 1: Population 68
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 68
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 69
Section 2: Education And Healthcare .. 69
Table: Education, 2002-2005 .. 69
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 .. 69
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power . 70
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 70
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) .. 70
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 71
BMI Methodology 72
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 72
Defence Industry . 72
City Terrorism Rating .. 73
Table: Methodology .. 75
Sources 76
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