The latest Japan Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 13.9% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, while not contributing significantly to regional supply. Regional oil use of 20.6mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 26.4mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to rise to around 29.6mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 7.6mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 8.0mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase to 8.2mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 18.37mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.4mn b/d by 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
Japan's Prime Minister Naoto Kan has announced that the country's energy policy will have to 'start from scratch' following the Fukushima nuclear crisis. He further said that Japan would need to promote the role of renewables in the country's energy mix, which relies heavily on nuclear. In the short term, Japan is expected to turn to other fuels, notably gas in the form of imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), oil and coal to fill the nuclear gap.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region consumed around 511.5bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 653.9bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 405.8bcm in 2010 should reach 556.7bcm in 2015, implying net imports falling from around 105.7bcm to 97.2bcm. Japan’s share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 19.82%, while it provides no meaningful share of production. By 2015, it is expected to be consuming 17.1% of the region’s gas.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.6%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in both the US and eurozone should be marginally higher than 2010, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will slump to 0.7% as a result of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price forecast for 2011 is US$98.90 per barrel (bbl) for the OPEC Basket, giving Brent at US$103/bbl and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at US$92.30, although these differentials are subject to change.
Japanese real GDP is assumed by BMI to have increased by 3.9% in 2010, and we foresee average annual growth of 1.7% in 2010-2015. There is little domestic upstream activity, with local state and private firms concentrating on international exploration efforts. The outlook for domestic oil and gas production therefore remains poor. Oil consumption is forecast to fall between 2010 and 2015, implying demand of 4.11mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The country should be consuming some 112bcm of gas by 2015, all of which will be imported in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting a reduction in Japanese oil consumption of 8.7%, with demand slipping steadily to the end of the period and the country using 4.04mn b/d by 2020. Gas consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 101.4bcm in 2010 to 113.7bcm by 2020. All of Japan’s gas will continue to be imported in the form of LNG. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found to the rear of this report.
Japan now shares eighth place with Indonesia and Pakistan in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) league table. The country ranks 11th, behind Thailand, in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment ratings, thanks to a virtual absence of hydrocarbon resources. The score reflects the limited involvement of the government in upstream oil activities and an exceptionally healthy country risk profile, which counter the lack of reserves and output growth potential. Japan holds third place, above Singapore, in BMI’s downstream Business Environment ratings, reflecting its high levels of oil and gas consumption, increasing gas demand and the established modern refining capability. However, it is held back by a high level of retail site intensity and a poor oil demand growth outlook.

[Studien Infos ausblenden]

Executive Summary 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Japan Political SWOT 9
Japan Economic SWOT 10
Japan Energy Market Overview 11
Regional Energy Market Overview . 15
Oil Supply And Demand . 15
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) . 16
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) 17
Oil: Downstream 18
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 18
Gas Supply And Demand . 19
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) 19
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) . 20
Liquefied Natural Gas 21
Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) 21
Business Environment Ratings 22
Asia Pacific Region 22
Composite Scores 23
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating . 23
Upstream Scores . 24
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating. 24
Japan Upstream Rating – Overview . 25
Japan Upstream Rating – Rewards . 25
Japan Upstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns 25
Downstream Scores 26
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating . 26
Japan Downstream Rating – Overview . 27
Japan Downstream Rating – Rewards 27
Japan Downstream Rating – Risks 27
Industry Forecast Scenario . 28
Oil And Gas Reserves 28
Oil Supply And Demand . 28
Gas Supply And Demand . 29
LNG . 29
Refining And Oil Products Trade . 32
Revenues/Import Costs. 33
Table: Japan Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts . 34
Other Energy . 35
Table: Japan Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts . 36
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 36
Long-Term Energy Outlook . 37
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 38
Oil Refineries . 38
Table: Refineries In Japan 39
Service Stations 40
Oil Storage Facilities . 40
Oil Terminals/Ports . 41
LNG Terminals 41
Gas Storage Facilities 42
Gas Pipelines . 42
Macroeconomic Outlook . 43
Table: Japan – Economic Activity, 2008-2015 . 45
Competitive Landscape 46
Executive Summary 46
Table: Key Players In Japan’s Oil And Gas Sector 47
Overview/State Role . 48
Licensing And Regulation . 48
Government Policy . 49
International Energy Relations . 49
Table: Key Downstream Players 52
Company Monitor 53
JX Holdings . 53
Inpex – Summary . 57
Japex – Summary . 57
Showa Shell – Summary . 58
TonenGeneral Sekiyu – Summary 58
BP – Summary . 59
Cosmo Oil – Summary . 59
LNG Japan – Summary 60
Idemitsu Kosan – Summary 61
Petrobras – Summary 61
Tokyo Gas – Summary . 62
Osaka Gas – Summary . 62
Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) – Summary 63
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts . 64
Regional Oil Demand 64
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) . 64
Regional Oil Supply . 65
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) 65
Regional Refining Capacity . 66
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 66
Regional Gas Demand . 67
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) 67
Regional Gas Supply 68
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) . 68
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts . 69
Glossary Of Terms 70
Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings 71
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 71
Ratings Overview . 71
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure 72
Indicators . 73
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology 73
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology . 74
BMI Methodology 76
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 76
Energy Industry . 77
Cross checks 77
Sources 77
[Inhaltsverzeichnis ausblenden]