We have incorporated the latest data provided by Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC), as well as telecoms companies, namely NTT DoCoMo, KDDI and Softbank, in our forecast scenarios. Consequently, there were revisions to our expectations for the Japanese mobile, fixed-line and broadband segments, and operators’ ARPU levels.
The Japanese mobile industry grew to 125.241mn in the quarter ended June 2011. NTT DoCoMo remained the dominant player, but has seen its market share continued to be eroded mainly by Softbank. NTT DoCoMo’s market share fell to 46.6% in June 2011 from 48.1% in the same period last year. By comparison, Softbank saw its market share increased to 20.9% in June 2011, up from 19.2% in June 2010. Meanwhile, KDDI has also been losing grip on its second-ranked position after its market share fell to 26.6% in June 2011. Despite the maturity of the mobile market, we continue to see robust subscriber growth due to operators’ aggressive marketing tactics to seek growth. We are now forecasting 128.507mn mobile subscribers in Japan by end-2011. The rapid growth in Japan’s mobile industry would largely come at the expense of the fixed-line sector. We have downgraded our fixed-line forecasts and we predict there will be 35.457mn fixed lines in Japan by the end of 2015.
Japanese telecoms operators have largely withstood the impact of the March earthquake and tsunami, based on the latest financial results released. This chimes with BMI’s view that the disaster will not have a permanent structural impact on the sector's long-term outlook, which is due to constant technological advancements and consumers' robust appetite for new devices and content.
Japan has retained its position as the top country in BMI’s telecoms Asia Pacific business environment ratings. While the resilience demonstrated by the Japanese telecoms industries played an important role in consolidating the country’s position on the table, we caution that Japan’s macroeconomic condition remains weak and could affect its overall telecoms rating score. Japan's economy has fallen back into recession following the March earthquake. Real GDP declined by a seasonally adjusted 0.9% q-o-q in Q111, following a 0.8% q-o-q contraction in Q410. Further declines are to be expected in Q211, and we believe that the prospect of a V-shaped recovery is remote, given the underlying weakness of Japan's economy and the need for the public sector to cut back. Meanwhile, on the political front, perhaps the biggest question after the Great Tohoku earthquake is whether the crisis will trigger profound political and economic changes in Japan, or merely reinforce the status quo of long-term economic decline. Given the magnitude of the event, it would be unusual if there were no consequences, but these could take many years to play out.

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Executive Summary 7
SWOT Analysis 8
Japan Wireline SWOT 8
Japan Mobile SWOT 9
Japan Political SWOT 10
Japan Economic SWOT 11
Japan Business Environment 12
Business Environment Ratings 13
Asia Pacific 13
Japan 16
Asia Pacific Business Environment Ratings, Q411 18
Industry Forecast Scenario 19
Mobile 19
Table: Mobile – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 19
ARPU 21
Table: ARPU – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 21
Fixed Line 22
Table: Fixed Line – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 22
Internet 23
Table: Internet – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 23
Market Data Analysis 25
Mobile 25
Table: Japan Mobile And PHS Market Share, June 2011 25
ARPU 27
Table: Japanese Blended ARPUs 2009-2011 (JPY/month) 27
Table: Japanese Voice ARPUs 2009-2011 JPY/month 28
Table: Japanese Data ARPUs 2009-2011 JPY/month 28
3G 29
Table: 3G Mobile Subscriber Market, June 2011 29
Table: 3G Mobile Net Additions, June 2011 30
LTE 31
Mobile Contract Wins 33
Table: Mobile Contract Wins 33
Mobile Operator Data 35
Table: Japan Market Overview 35
Table: NTT DoCoMo 35
Table: KDDI 37
Table: Softbank Mobile 38
Table: eMobile 39
Table: UQ Communications 39
Mobile Content 40
Regional Outlook 40
Country Outlook 42
Mobile Internet 44
Value-Added Services Timeline 46
Table: Selected VAS Services, 2010-2011 46
Fixed Line 47
Table: Fixed-Line Operators, June 2011 48
Internet 49
FTTH 50
Table: NTT East And NTT West: ADSLA FTTH ('000) 50
Number Of Broadband Subscriptions (mn) 51
DSL 51
VoIP Services 52
WiMAX 52
Wireline Developments 54
Table: Wireline Developments (Fixed-Line And Broadband) 54
Regulatory Environment And Industry Developments 55
Table: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities In Japan 55
Competition 56
Table: Licence Categories 57
Table: Notification Categories 57
Licensing 58
Industry Developments 59
Company Monitor 60
Huawei Technologies 60
Table: Vendors' Financial Performance (US$mn), 2009-2010 60
Table: Selected Huawei Contract Wins, 2010-2011 63
Competitive Landscape 67
Competitor Analysis 67
Table: Key Players: Japan Telecoms Sector 67
Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators 2003-2009 (FY end March 31 unless stated) 67
Company Profiles 68
NTT Corporation 68
NTT DoCoMo 74
KDDI Corporation 79
Softbank Corp 83
Key Players 87
Fixed Line 87
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview 87
Broadband 88
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview 88
Mobile 89
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 89
Country Snapshot: Japan Demographic Data 90
Section 1: Population 90
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 91
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 91
Section 2: Education And Healthcare 91
Table: Education, 2002-2005 91
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 92
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 92
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 92
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 93
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 93
Glossary Of Terms 94
Table: Glossary Of Terms 94
BMI Methodology 95
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 95
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 95
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 97
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 97
Table: Ratings Indicators 98
Weighting 99
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 99
Sources 99
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