Japan’s arrival numbers have grown steadily since 2001. Although they took a hit in 2009, falling to less than 6.66mn after reaching 8.35mn in 2008, arrivals are estimated to have rebounded in 2010 to 8.45mn. As a result of the devastating earthquake which hit Tohoku on March 11 2011, and the tsunami and nuclear crisis that followed, we have cut our outlook forecast for Japan’s tourism industry for 2011 and 2012. Previously BMI forecast 8.99mn and 9.64mn arrivals in 2011 and 2012 respectively. We now forecast arrivals to fall in 2011, to 7.99mn, rising to 8.57mn in 2012and 10.41mn in 2015. Although we expect arrival numbers to begin to increase in 2012, it is unknown how severe the nuclear aftermath will be.
The number of air and sea tourist arrivals continually increased between 2001 and 2007. Tourist arrivals by air were by far the most predominant, with 8.49mn arriving by air in 2007 compared to 666,000 by sea. Leisure arrivals outnumber those visiting Japan for business purposes. In 2009 leisure arrivals totalled 4.40mn, while business arrivals were 1.41mn, both falling from 2008 but picking up in 2010 to 6.06mn and 1.56mn respectively. BMI forecasts that the number of leisure arrivals will dip in 2011 and increase slowly thereafter, due to the recent events in Japan, to 7.88mn in 2015, while business arrivals are forecast to reach 1.72mn.
Japan is targeting Chinese tourists and has eased visa regulations for Chinese citizens. Until 2009 visas were only granted to individual Chinese travellers with an annual income of at least CNY250,000 (US$36,600). Given that this is large sum for most Chinese workers, visitors tended to travel as part of a tour group. However, Japan has lowered the threshold of annual income to CNY60,000 (US$8,780). To deal with the rise in visa applications, all seven Japanese diplomatic offices in China will accept applications, instead of just three previously, and the number of Chinese tour agencies eligible to apply for visas for their customers has increased from 48 to 290.
As well as appointing Hiroshi Mizohata as the new tourism commissioner in April 2010, the Japanese Tourism Agency (JTA) has a new slogan and logo. The Japan: Endless Discovery slogan is part of the country’s revamped tourist promotions to boost inbound visitor numbers. The logo depicts white Japanese cherry blossom against a red sun background.
Individual and collective government expenditure is forecast to decline. The Japanese government’s individual expenditure has risen from US$15.64bn in 2001, and is estimated to peak at US$24.16mn in 2010. We forecast individual government tourism expenditure to decline to US$20.45bn by 2015. The government’s collective tourism expenditure is also expected to fall by 2015. In 2001 collective expenditure came in at US$12.30bn and is estimated to have peaked at US$18.89bn in 2010. From 2011 BMI forecasts collective expenditure to fall, reaching US$15.94bn by 2015.
There is room for growth in the low-cost carrier segment of the Japanese airline market. Japan’s air industry is dominated by Japan Airlines (JAL) and All Nippon Airways (ANA). Budget airlines have not sprung up in Japan as in the rest of the Asia Pacific region due to the country’s expensive and inefficient airports. That said, Ibaraki Airport at Omitama, 53 miles (85km) north of Tokyo, opened in March 2010 and is intended to be a no-frills airport, which could allow for low-budget airlines to enter the market. However, as of October 2010 Ibaraki has only attracted one daily flight to the South Korean capital, Seoul on Asiana Airlines. ANA has been considering launching a low-cost carrier operating international and domestic routes to take advantage of the new runway at Haneda Airport in Tokyo and will launch a low-cost airline based at Kansai International Airport, Osaka, in 2011. Due to the March 11 earthquake and tsunami plans for expanding flights to the country will, in our view, be put on hold for much if not all of 2011 until the nuclear crisis and perceptions of risk associated with radiation levels have subsided. That said, the UN World Tourism Organization stated in April that ‘the current situation poses no risk to travel to and from Japan’.

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Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Japan Tourism SWOT . 7
Japan Political SWOT 7
Japan Economic SWOT . 8
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 9
Arrivals .. 9
Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2015 (‘000) 9
Accommodation .. 10
Table: Hotels Data, 2007-2015 (‘000) . 11
Expenditure Data 11
Table: Tourism Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2008-2015.. 11
Inbound Tourism . 12
Table: Tourist Arrivals, 2007-2015 .. 12
Outbound Tourism . 13
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2007-2015 . 14
Market Overview – Travel 15
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 16
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl) 17
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) .. 20
Market Overview – Hospitality . 21
Business Environment Outlook .. 22
Tourism Business Environment Ratings . 22
Table: Asia Pacific Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings . 22
Security Ratings . 22
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings . 22
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index . 23
Japan’s Security Ratings. 24
City Terrorism Rating .. 24
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index . 25
North East Asia Security Overview .. 26
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s .. 26
The Geopolitical Importance Of North East Asia .. 26
Flashpoints And Faultlines In North East Asia 27
The Evolution Of North East Asia .. 34
Global Assumptions, Q311 37
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 .. 37
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 38
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) .. 38
Developed States . 39
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) . 39
Emerging Markets . 40
Table: Emerging Markets’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) .. 41
Consensus Forecasts. 42
Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y) .. 42
Company Profiles 43
All Nippon Airways 43
Japan Airlines .. 43
JAL Hotels . 44
Kamori Kanko .. 44
BMI Methodology 45
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 45
Tourism Industry . 45
Tourism Ratings – Methodology . 46
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators . 46
Table: Weighting Of Components .. 47
City Terrorism Rating .. 48
Table: City Terrorism Ratings Methodology. 49
Sources .. 50
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