BMI's analysis of the Jordanian telecoms market this quarter incorporates market data published by the telecoms regulator the Telecommunications Regulatory Commission (TRC) and leading service providers. These are France Telecom-backed Jordan Telecom (Orange), Zain Jordan, Qatar Telecom (Qtel)- owned wi-tribe and Bahrain Telecom (Batelco)-owned Umniah. Our five-year forecast for the mobile, fixed and broadband sectors are largely unchanged this quarter as the latest market data are in line with our previous forecasts. We also updated our ARPU forecast for the mobile market this quarter. Our forecast is based on available market data and overall trends in the telecoms market.
The latest available data from the TRC for the mobile, fixed and internet sectors relate to the end of Q111. Meanwhile, Jordan's three mobile operators provided subscribers figures for Q211. As highlighted in previous reports, the TRC's estimate for the overall mobile subscriber base continues to differ from the sum of the subscriber figures provided by the individual operators. The most likely reason for this difference is the use of different metrics by the regulator and operators to account for active subscribers. Meanwhile, third-ranked Umniah is yet to announce significant discount of inactive lines, an indication the operator may be reporting a higher number of subscribers than the number attributed to it by the regulator. BMI's analysis and forecast are based on the operators' results, which are published sooner than those of the regulator.
According to the regulator, there were 6.834mn mobile subscribers in Jordan at the end of Q111, comprising 6.254mn prepaid subscribers and 580,336 postpaid users. Using market data published by the country's three operators, we calculate there were 7.041mn mobile subscribers at the end of Q111, representing a growth of 3.8% q-o-q. During Q211, the market grew by a further 6.8% y-o-y to reach 7.562mn subscribers. These figures show the mobile market in Jordan grew rapidly during H111, partly because of a rise in demand for communication services during the political uprising in Q111 and the strong take-up of 3G services provided by Zain and Orange. BMI expects the strong subscriber growth to continue in H211, driven by promotional offers during the 2011 Ramadan period and strong demand for 3G connections. We therefore revised up our forecast for 2011 and for the remainder of our forecast period. We expect mobile subscriptions to reach 7.7mn by the end of 2011 and 9.9mn by 2015.
The broadband market registered strong growth in Q111, driven by a category of broadband access the regulator terms as 'Order'. BMI believes this refers to 3G-based mobile broadband subscriptions. This category grew from 2,003 subscribers at the end of 2010 to 135,551 by March 2011. This period coincides with the surge in 3G subscriptions on Orange's network and the roll out of 3G services by Zain. We expect 3G-based mobile broadband services to be the dominant form of internet access by end-2010. In May 2011 Zain said it registered 100,000 mobile broadband subscribers, while Orange disclosed it had as many as 500,000 3G subscribers. We believe a considerable number of those are mobile broadband users with dedicated modems and USB sticks. We maintain our positive outlook for the broadband sector and expect broadband penetration to reach 11.7% by 2015.

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Executive Summary 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Mobile SWOT Analysis 9
Wireline SWOT Analysis 11
Political 13
Economic 14
Business Environment 15
Industry Business Environment Overview 16
Business Environment Analysis 16
Table: Q411 MENA Business Environment Table 20
Jordan 21
Industry Forecast 23
Mobile 23
Table: Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts 23
ARPU 25
Table: Industry Forecast - Mobile ARPU 25
Fixed-Line 27
Table: Table: Telecoms Sector -- Fixed-Line -- Historical Data & Forecasts 27
Broadband 29
Table: Table: Telecoms Sector -- Internet -- Historical Data & Forecasts 29
Market Data Analysis 31
Mobile 31
Table: Table: Jordan Mobile Market, Q111 32
Table: Table: Jordan Mobile Net Additions, Q409-Q211 ('000) 33
Table: Table -- Mobile Contract Wins 38
Table: Selected VAS Services 42
Table: Table: Jordan Mobile Market Overview 43
Table: Orange (Jordan Telecom) 43
Table: Table: Fastlink (Zain) 44
Table: Table: Umniah (Batelco) 45
Industry Trend Analysis 46
VAS Evolves 47
M-Commerce Should Find A Willing Audience 48
Fixed-Line 51
Table: Fixed Line Subscribers, 2009 - 2011 ('000) 53
Broadband 56
Table: Jordan Internet Subscribers By Technology, 2009 - 2011 57
Regulatory Development 64
Table: Jordan: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 64
Competitive Landscape 71
Table: Key Players: Jordan Telecoms Markets 71
Vendor Profile 72
Key Financial Data 72
Table: Huawei Technologies - Key Financial Data (US$mn) 73
Mobile Broadband Key To Regional Growth 74
Fibre Supplements Mobile As A Broadband Medium 75
Table: Huawei - Recent Contract Wins/Developments In Middle East & North Africa 76
Company Profiles 77
Jordan Telecom 77
Zain Jordan 84
Umniah 89
Market Overview 94
Mobile 94
Table: Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 94
Fixed-Line 95
Table: Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview 96
Broadband 96
Table: Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview 97
Glossary 98
Table: Glossary Of Terms 98
Methodology 100
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 100
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 101
Table: Ratings Indicators 102
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 103
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