In very general terms, the security situation across central Asia remained unchanged through mid-2011. Each of the five countries in the region – Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan – continues to face a complex array of challenges: ethnic tensions, relating to minorities with (often legitimate) grievances; militant Islam, exacerbated by often low, and more commonly uneven, distributions of income; populations that are growing faster than available resources (particularly water) and; widespread corruption and government inefficiency.
There is no evidence that any of the countries is approaching a sustainable solution to any of these problems. This is in spite of growing collaboration on border security. Although four of the countries (the exception being Turkmenistan) work together, along with Russia and China, to combat terrorism through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO – which celebrated its tenth anniversary in June 2011), it is not clear that meaningful progress is being made. Kazakhstan experienced its first suicide bombing. In the face of strong criticism from non-government organisations, the government of Kazakhstan repatriated asylum-seekers from Uzbekistan, who faced charges relating to religious extremism.
After a seven-month manhunt, Tajik special forces killed the field commander of the United Tajik Organisation in April 2011. Human rights abuses in Turkmenistan caused the postponement of a vote in the European Parliament on a strengthening of links with that country. The report of an independent commission found Kyrgyzstan’s government culpable for the ethnic violence against the country’s Uzbek minority in 2010, following the downfall of former president Kurmanbek Bakiyev.
Although the SCO provides a framework for multi-national military exercises and broad-based cooperation between the member states, it appears that its main roles remain: a coordinated approach to the suppression of Islamic radicals, and; exclusion – or, at least, minimisation – of US involvement in central Asian affairs. As indicated above, success in the first of these objectives remains elusive.
In respect of the second, the US maintains its presence at Manas Air Base, Kyrgyzstan and is collaborating with Kazakhstan’s military. Meanwhile, there are clear signs of dialogue between the Defence Ministry of Kazakhstan and its counterparts in Italy and France – two countries that clearly have the ability to supply complex materiel and systems. Israel’s defence/aerospace industry also sees Kazakhstan as a prospective buyer of equipment.
As usual, details of procurement deals remain relatively scarce. However, Kazakhstan and the other central Asian countries are likely buyers of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) aircraft.
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Executive Summary 7
SWOT Analysis 8
Central Asia Security SWOT 8
Central Asian Defence Industry SWOT 9
Central Asia Political SWOT 9
Global Political Outlook 10
Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea, Greece 10
Table: Election Timetable 14
United States 17
Latin America 17
Western Europe 18
Russia And The Former Soviet Union 19
Middle East And North Africa 20
Asia 22
Wild Cards To Watch 24
Central Asia Regional Security Overview 26
The Geopolitical Importance Of Central Asia 26
Challenges And Threats To Central Asia’s Stability 27
Authoritarian Political Systems 27
Islamist Militancy 30
Population Mismatch And Border Disputes 34
Water Resources 34
Drugs And Smuggling 35
Centripetal Forces 36
Centrifugal Forces 36
The Great Game In Central Asia: An Update 37
Central Asia’s Future Evolution 43
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation 45
The Main Goals Of The SCO 46
A SWOT Assessment Of The SCH 47
Future Of The SCO 49
Rapid US Afghan Withdrawal A Risk To Regional Security 50
Security Risk Ratings 52
BMI’s Security Ratings 52
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings 52
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 53
Central Asia Conflict Risk Rating 54
City Terrorism Ratings 55
Table: BMI’s Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index 55
Central Asia Political Overview 57
Kazakhstan 59
Kyrgyzstan 62
Tajikistan 63
Turkmenistan 65
Uzbekistan 66
Armed Forces And Government Spending 68
Kazakhstan’s Armed Forces 68
Kyrgyzstan’s Armed Forces 69
Tajikistan’s Armed Forces 69
Turkmenistan’s Armed Forces 70
Uzbekistan’s Armed Forces 70
International Deployments 71
Table: Central Asia Foreign Developments 71
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 71
Market Overview 73
Arms Trade Overview 74
Procurement Trends And Developments 75
Industry Forecast Scenario 76
Kazakhstan 76
Armed Forces 76
Table: Kazakhstan’s Armed Forces, 2002-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 76
Table: Kazakhstan’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 77
Defence Expenditure 77
Table: Kazakhstan’s Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015 77
Table: Kazakhstan’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 78
Kyrgyzstan 78
Armed Forces 78
Table: Kyrgyzstan’s Armed Forces, 2002-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 78
Table: Kyrgyzstan’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 78
Defence Expenditure 79
Table: Kyrgyzstan’s Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015 79
Table: Kyrgyzstan’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 79
Tajikistan 80
Armed Forces 80
Table: Tajikistan’s Armed Forces, 2002-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 80
Table: Tajikistan’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 80
Defence Expenditure 80
Table: Tajikistan’s Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015 80
Table: Tajikistan’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP (US$mn), 2008-2015 81
Turkmenistan 82
Armed Forces 82
Table: Turkmenistan’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 82
Table: Turkmenistan’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 82
Defence Expenditure 82
Table: Turkmenistan’s Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015 82
Table: Turkmenistan’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2015( US$mn) 83
Uzbekistan 84
Armed Forces 84
Table: Uzbekistan’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 84
Table: Uzbekistan’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 84
Defence Expenditure 85
Table: Uzbekistan’s Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015 85
Table: Uzbekistan’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 85
Macroeconomic Outlook 86
Kazakhstan 86
Table: Kazakhstan – Economic Activity, 2008-2015 88
Kyrgyzstan 88
Table: Kyrgyzstan – Fiscal Policy, 2008-2015 89
Tajikistan 89
Turkmenistan 91
Table: Turkmenistan - Monetary Policy, 2008-2015 91
Uzbekistan 92
Table: Uzbekistan – Economic Activity, 2008-2015 93
Company Profiles 94
Chkalov Tashkent Industrial Aircraft Association (TAPiCH) 94
GE International Operations 95
Country Snapshot: Kazakhstan Demographic Data 96
Section 1: Population 96
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 96
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 97
Section 2: Education And Healthcare 97
Table: Education, 2002-2005 97
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 97
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 98
Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004 98
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 98
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 99
BMI Methodology 100
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 100
Defence Industry 100
City Terrorism Rating 101
Table: Methodology 103
Sources 104
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