BMI’s Q311 update on the telecoms markets of Kazakhstan and its four Central Asian neighbours is built on new mobile subscriber data for Q111, ending March 31 2011, regulatory data and local press reports. Using this data, we have revised our five-year growth forecasts for the development of the region’s five mobile markets. In addition, we have reviewed our five-year forecasts for the development of Central Asia’s fixed and mobile broadband subscriber markets this quarter. Therefore, we include customers who use devices such as netbooks and USB sticks to connect to the internet wirelessly through a high-speed (3G/HSPA) network; however, we do not include smartphone users, only dedicated mobile data subscriptions. In the past few months, operators in countries such as Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have been have been introducing various promotions, to encourage greater data customer growth and service usage.
In December 2010 Kyrgyzstan became the latest Central Asian republic to introduce third-generation (3G) mobile services, although LTE networks had already been launched in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in 2010 by Kazakh mobile market leader K-Cell, which is owned by the Nordic carrier TeliaSonera, and Uzdunrobita operating as MTS Uzbekistan. BMI forecasts that mobile broadband services based on UMTS/HSPA and LTE technology will make a strong contribution to the growth of internet services in Central Asia because of the limited scope of fixed broadband growth due to a lack of existing infrastructure, income-constrained demand and challenging geography. Our new broadband forecasts for Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan envisage stronger growth as a result of the impact of mobile broadband services. In the long term, BMI believes the spread of mobile broadband services have the potential to stifle the success of competing wireless technologies such as WiMAX and satellite. Meanwhile, in November 2010 3G services were launched in Turkmenistan when MTS Turkmenistan launched a 3G network in the capital Ashgabat. However, the following month it was announced that MTS’ operating licence had been suspended by the Turkmen government. At the time of writing, MTS remained offline and was proceeding with its lawsuit against two state-owned operators Turkmentelecom and mobile subsidiary Altyn Asyr, regarding the termination of interconnection agreements. BMI believes the revocation of MTS’ licence will be to the detriment of the Turkmen market in terms of a loss of competition and international expertise.
The Russian foreign ministry announced on March 7 2011 that it will protect the interests of local telecoms operator Mobile TeleSystems (MTS) in its dispute with Turkmenistan. MTS has itself responded by writing to international firms with the aim of discouraging them from investing in Turkmenistan. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Turkmenistan has expressed its interest in initiating negotiations with the Russian operator on the buyout of its assets in the country.
The situation became a political issue beyond telecoms after the military were called in to control crowds in early April 2011, after hundreds of customers stormed Altyn Asyr stores when it suspended the distribution of SIM cards due to network congestion problems. The operator began offering vouchers that could be used to acquire a SIM card from May 2011. Only public officials or foreign nationals are currently being issued SIM cards. One positive ramification from the SIM issuance suspension is the political pressure it applies to the Turkmen leadership. Earlier in April, the President of Turkmenistan, Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, was forced to respond to the political implications of the SIM shortage by criticising the operator's poor service. He argued poor work organisation is the cause of the low efficiency. He demanded measures be taken immediately to guarantee the high quality of mobile services across the country and obliged the government to establish private companies and joint ventures with foreign businesses. Huawei Technologies and Nokia Siemens Networks have since won contracts for an urgent upgrade of the Altyn Asyr network, according to local reports.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Central Asia Telecommunications SWOT 7
Business Environment 8
Central Asia 8
Table: Central Asia Business Environment Ratings 11
Industry Forecast Scenario 12
Mobile 12
Table: Central Asia – Mobile Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts 12
Kazakhstan 13
Kyrgyzstan 14
Tajikistan 15
Turkmenistan 16
Uzbekistan 17
Fixed Line 18
Table: Central Asia – Fixed Line Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts 18
Broadband 21
Table: Central Asia – Broadband Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts 21
Market Data Analysis 25
Mobile 25
Kazakhstan 25
Table: Kazakhstan Mobile Market, March 2011 26
Kyrgyzstan 30
Table: Kyrgyzstan Mobile Market, December 2010 32
Tajikistan 35
Table: Tajikistan Mobile Market, March 2011 36
Tajikistan Mobile Market Shares 37
Turkmenistan 40
Table: Turkmenistan Mobile Market, December 2010 42
Uzbekistan 44
Table: Uzbekistan Mobile Market, March 2011 45
Fixed Line 51
Kazakhstan 51
Kyrgyzstan 52
Tajikistan 53
Turkmenistan 54
Uzbekistan 54
Internet 56
Kazakhstan 56
Kyrgyzstan 58
Tajikistan 59
Turkmenistan 61
Uzbekistan 62
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments 65
Kazakhstan 65
Kazakhstan: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 67
Kyrgyzstan 68
Kyrgyzstan: Regulatory Bodies And their Responsibilities 69
Tajikistan 69
Tajikistan: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 71
Turkmenistan 72
Turkmenistan: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 73
Uzbekistan 73
Uzbekistan: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 75
Competitive Landscape 77
Key Players 77
Table: Key Players – Central Asia Telecoms Sector 77
Company Monitor 78
Table: Samsung CEE 4G Contracts 80
Operator Profiles 81
Kazakhtelecom 81
Kyrgyztelecom 85
Uzbektelecom 89
Tajiktelecom 92
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview 94
Fixed Line 94
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview 94
Mobile 94
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 94
Glossary Of Terms 95
Table: Glossary Of Terms 95
BMI Methodology 96
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 96
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 96
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 98
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 98
Table: Ratings Indicators 99
Weighting 100
Table: Weighting Of Indicators .100
Sources 100
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