The latest Libya Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 6.11% of African regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 12.20% of supply. African regional oil use of 3.06mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 3.63mn b/d in 2010. It should average 3.62mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around 4.09mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8.08mn b/d in 2001, and in 2010 averaged an estimated 10.74mn b/d. After dropping to an estimated 9.66mn b/d in 2011 because of the loss of Libyan volumes, it is set to rise to 12.91mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging behind the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 6.02mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 8.15mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 9.85mn b/d by 2015. Nigeria has the greatest production growth potential, with Angolan exports also set to climb significantly.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 120.6bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 162.3bcm forecast for 2015. Production of an estimated 208.7bcm in 2010 should reach 295.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 105bcm to 151bcm in 2015. In 2010, Libya consumed an estimated 5.56% of the region’s gas, with its market share forecast at 4.14% by 2015. It contributed an estimated 7.91% to 2010 regional gas production and by 2015 will account for 4.74% of supply.
The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year.
We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February.
Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$101.90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$106/bbl in 2011 and US$97.62/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. We have also retained our existing supply and demand forecasts until the scheduled quarterly revision at the start of April.
Libyan real GDP is assumed by BMI to have risen by 3.2% in 2010. We are forecasting a 23.2% contraction in 2011 due to the effects of the civil war, although steady growth should resume in 2012 and increase to just under 5.0% by 2015. We expect oil demand to fall from an estimated 272,000b/d in 2010 to only 204,000b/d in 2011 before recovering to 250,000b/d by 2015. Gas production should reach 14bcm by 2015, up from an estimated 16.5bcm in 2010. Consumption is expected to fall from 6.7bcm in 2010 to just 5.7bcm in 2011, but should increase again to 6.73bcm by 2015.
State-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC) has historically accounted for some 40% of oil production and all gas production, although the de facto division of the country into two separate states means this may not be the case in the future. NOC’s former unit, the Arabian Gulf Oil Corporation (Agoco) has now replaced it in the east of the bulk of any future increase in production have mostly shut down operations to await the resolution of the conflict.
Libya now shares third place with Egypt and Algeria in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It continues to occupy first place in our updated upstream Business Environment ratings, but is just one point ahead of Gabon. The country’s score benefits from its proven oil reserves and a region-topping oil reserves-to-production ratio (RPR). The competitive landscape features numerous non-state companies, and licensing terms are generally good. However, country risk factors undermine some of the hydrocarbons-specific strength. Libya is in the top half of the league table in BMI’s downstream Business Environment ratings, with a few high scores but near-term progress up the rankings unlikely. It is ranked fifth thanks to poor country risk factors, a largely state-controlled industry and reasonable oil and gas demand growth prospects.

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Executive Summary 7
Libya Energy Market Overview 9
Regional Market Overview 11
Oil Supply And Demand 11
Table: Africa’s Oil Consumption, 2008-2015 (000b/d) 12
Table: Africa’s Oil Production, 2008-2015 (000b/d) 13
Oil: Downstream 14
Table: Africa’s Oil Refining Capacity, 2008-2015 (000b/d) 14
Gas Supply And Demand 15
Table: Africa’s Gas Consumption, 2008-2015 (bcm) 15
Table: Africa’s Gas Production, 2008-2015 (bcm) 16
Liquefied Natural Gas 17
Table: Africa’s LNG Exports, 2008-2015 (bcm) 17
Business Environment Ratings 18
Composite Scores 18
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating 18
Upstream Scores 19
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Ratings 19
Libya Upstream Rating – Overview 20
Libya Upstream Rating – Rewards 20
Libya Upstream Rating – Risks 20
Downstream Scores 21
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Ratings 21
Libya Downstream Rating – Overview 22
Libya Downstream Rating – Rewards 22
Libya Downstream Rating – Risks 22
Risk Summary 23
Political 23
Economic 23
Business Environment 23
Industry Forecast Scenario 24
Oil And Gas Reserves 24
Oil Supply And Demand 24
Gas Supply And Demand 25
LNG 26
Refining And Oil Products Trade 26
Revenues/Import Costs 26
Table: Libya Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts 27
Other Energy 28
Table: Libya Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts 28
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 28
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook 28
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 30
Oil Refineries 30
Table: Refineries In Libya 30
Oil Terminals/Ports 31
Oil Pipelines 31
LNG Terminals 31
Table: LNG Terminals In Libya 32
Gas Pipelines 32
Macroeconomic Outlook 33
Table: Libya - Economic Activity 36
Competitive Landscape 37
Executive Summary 37
Table: Key Players – Libyan Oil And Gas Sector 38
Overview/State Role 38
Licensing And Regulation 38
Government Policy 39
Licensing Rounds 40
International Energy Relations 42
Table: Key Upstream Players 44
Table: Key Downstream Player 44
Company Monitor 45
National Oil Corporation (NOC) 45
Eni North Africa 48
Total Libya 51
OMV of Libya 54
Repsol YPF Libya 56
Marathon Oil 58
ConocoPhillips 61
BP – Summary 64
ExxonMobil – Summary 64
Tatneft – Summary 65
Occidental Petroleum – Summary 66
BG Group – Summary 66
Hess – Summary 67
Woodside Petroleum – Summary 67
Chevron – Summary 67
Statoil – Summary 68
Royal Dutch Shell – Summary 68
Suncor – Summary 68
PGNiG – Summary 69
Gazprom – Summary 69
Gazprom Neft – Summary 70
RWE – Summary 70
Verenex Energy – Summary 71
Indian Oil/Oil India – Summary 72
Others – Summary 72
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts 73
Regional Oil Demand 73
Table: Africa’s Oil Consumption, 2013-2020 (000b/d) 73
Regional Oil Supply 74
Table: Africa’s Oil Production, 2013-2020 (000b/d) 74
Regional Refining Capacity 75
Table: Africa’s Oil Refining Capacity, 2013-2020 (000b/d) 75
Regional Gas Demand 76
Table: Africa’s Gas Consumption, 2013-2020 (bcm) 76
Regional Gas Supply 77
Table: Africa’s Gas Production, 2013-2020 (bcm) 77
Libya Country Overview 77
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 78
Glossary Of Terms 79
Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology 80
Introduction 80
Ratings Overview 80
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure 81
Indicators 82
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology 82
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology 83
BMI Methodology 85
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 85
Energy Industry 85
Cross checks 86
Sources 86
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