ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE 2
About the PharmaVitae team 2
Chapter 1 About this profile 3
PharmaVitae Explorer database 3
Chapter structure 3
Executive summary 3
Quarterly news update 3
Company introduction 3
Company sales 4
Company financials 4
Key products and competitors 4
Data sourcing 4
Sales data 4
Analyst consensus 4
Chapter 2 Executive summary 5
Key findings 5
Prescription pharmaceutical sales and growth rate performance, 2002-14 6
Financial performance, 2002-14 7
Eli Lilly: PharmaVitae forecasts at a glance 8
Strategic insight 9
The looming challenge of 'Years Y and Z' 9
Strategies to weather the loss of sales 10
Investment following 'Year X' 10
Looking to external sources of growth 11
Outlook heavily dependent upon Effient and Byetta LAR 12
Out-sourcing spreads risk and leverages expertise 15
SWOT analysis 16
Strengths 17
Weaknesses 18
Opportunities 19
Threats 21
Table of Contents 22
Table of figures 24
Chapter 3 Quarterly news update 25
Key findings 25
Product developments 26
Deals and alliances 27
Product deals 27
Technology deals 27
M&A activity 27
Company announcements 28
Future product milestones 29
Chapter 4 Company introduction 30
Key findings 30
Background 31
Key corporate developments 31
M&A history 32
Advanced Cardiovascular Systems acquired 32
Hybritech acquired 32
DowElanco formed 33
Devices for Vascular Intervention acquired 33
Origin Medsystems acquired 33
Sphinx Pharmaceuticals acquired 33
Guidant spun-out 33
Remaining medical device businesses divested 33
PCS Health Systems acquired 33
Hybritech divested 34
DowElanco holding sold 34
PCS Health Systems sold 34
Applied Molecular Evolution acquired 34
ICOS acquired 34
Hypnion acquired 34
Ivy Animal Health acquired 34
SGX Pharmaceuticals acquired 34
ImClone Systems acquired 35
M&A strategy 35
Current corporate structure 36
Pharmaceuticals 37
Elanco Animal Health 37
Pharmaceuticals business unit structure 38
Chapter 5 Company sales 39
Key findings 39
Prescription pharmaceutical sales and growth rate analysis, 2002-14 40
Product analysis 42
Product analysis, 2002-08 43
Product analysis, 2008-14 45
Therapy area analysis 49
Geographic analysis 53
Launch/core/expiry analysis 55
Explanation of launch/core/expiry analysis 55
Launch analysis, 2008-14 56
Core analysis, 2008-14 60
Expiry analysis, 2008-14 62
Launch/core/expiry configuration, 2008-14 64
Molecule type analysis 65
Externalization analysis 67
Chapter 6 Company financials 69
Key findings 69
Reconciliation between PharmaVitae-formatted prescription pharma sales and company-reported total sales, 2002-08 70
Operating costs and profit analysis 72
Operating costs and profit analysis, 2002-08 73
Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2002-08 75
Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2008-14 76
Operating costs and profit analysis, 2008-14 77
Chapter 7 Key products and competitors 79
Key findings 79
Overview 80
Central nervous system 81
Zyprexa 81
Overview 81
Sales forecast 82
Sales have slipped due to side effect concerns 82
Further gradual decline before US generics in 2011 82
Zypadhera delayed by side effect issues 83
Cymbalta 84
Overview 84
Sales forecast 85
Commercial success despite competition from Effexor and generic selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI) 85
New indications have significantly lifted sales 85
Key growth driver to turn to decline in 2013 86
dirucotide (MBP-8298) 87
Overview 87
Sales forecast 88
Multiple sclerosis candidate in-licensed from BioMS 88
Disappointment in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis 88
Focus on a genetic subset of patients with secondary progressive multiple sclerosis 89
Results from the MAESTRO Phase III program will clarify commercial potential 89
Endocrine, metabolic & genetic disorders 91
Byetta franchise 91
Overview 91
Sales forecast 92
First integrin mimetic to market 92
Competition challenges sales growth 93
Byetta LAR offers once-weekly convenience 93
Humalog franchise 94
Overview 94
Sales forecast 95
Insulin is the cornerstone of diabetes treatment 95
New Humalog formulations have driven further market expansion 95
Market leading position lost to new entrants 95
Scope for further growth is limited 96
Humulin franchise 98
Overview 98
Sales forecast 99
Move away from human insulins 99
Sales supported by market dynamics 99
Oncology 100
Alimta 100
Overview 100
Sales forecast 101
Indication expansion has driven growth 101
Further approvals will lift sales 102
Growth maintained across 2008-14 102
Gemzar 103
Overview 103
Sales forecast 104
Approval in additional indications has driven sales growth 104
Forecast dominated by impact of generic erosion 105
Erbitux 106
Overview 106
Sales forecast 107
The acquisition of ImClone Systems brought Eli Lilly rights to Erbitux 107
Mechanism of action facilitates indication expansion 107
Cardiovascular 109
Effient (prasugrel) 109
Overview 109
Sales forecast 110
Effient offers superior efficacy at the cost of bleeding 110
Regulatory and competitive threats to forecast sales 110
Genitourinary 111
Evista 111
Overview 111
Sales forecast 112
Chapter 8 Appendix 113
R&D pipeline 113
Collaboration/ other revenue reconciliation 116
2002-08 116
2008-14 117
References 117
Abbreviations 118
Exchange rates 119
About Datamonitor 120
About Datamonitor Healthcare 120
Datamonitor consulting 120
Disclaimer 122
List of Tables
Table 1: Eli Lilly - PharmaVitae forecasts at a glance 8
Table 2: Eli Lilly key product developments, Q1-Q2 2009 26
Table 3: Eli Lilly product deals and alliances, Q1-Q2 2009 27
Table 4: Eli Lilly technology deals and alliances, Q1-Q2 2009 27
Table 5: Eli Lilly M&A activity, Q1-Q2 2009 27
Table 6: Eli Lilly company announcements, Q1-Q2 2009 28
Table 7: Eli Lilly future product milestones, 2009-11 29
Table 8: Eli Lilly product portfolio overview ($m), 2002-08 43
Table 9: Eli Lilly product portfolio overview ($m), 2008-14 45
Table 10: Eli Lilly prescription pharmaceutical sales by therapy area ($m), 2008-14 52
Table 11: Eli Lilly prescription pharmaceutical sales by geographic region ($m), 2008-14 54
Table 12: Eli Lilly launch portfolio overview ($m), 2008-14 56
Table 13: Eli Lilly core portfolio overview ($m), 2008-14 60
Table 14: Eli Lilly expiry portfolio overview ($m), 2008-14 62
Table 15: Eli Lilly prescription pharmaceutical sales by molecule type ($m), 2008-14 66
Table 16: Eli Lilly prescription pharmaceutical sales by source ($m), 2008-14 68
Table 17: Total Eli Lilly sales by business unit ($m), 2002-08 70
Table 18: Eli Lilly operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2002-08 73
Table 19: Eli Lilly operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2002-08 75
Table 20: Eli Lilly operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2008-14 76
Table 21: Eli Lilly operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2008-14 77
Table 22: Key products overview 80
Table 23: Zyprexa: overview 81
Table 24: Zyprexa: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14 82
Table 25: Cymbalta: overview 84
Table 26: Cymbalta: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14 85
Table 27: dirucotide: overview 87
Table 28: dirucotide: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14 88
Table 29: Byetta: overview 91
Table 30: Byetta franchise: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14 92
Table 31: Humalog franchise: overview 94
Table 32: Humalog franchise: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14 95
Table 33: Humulin franchise: overview 98
Table 34: Humulin franchise: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14 99
Table 35: Alimta: overview 100
Table 36: Alimta: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14 101
Table 37: Gemzar: overview 103
Table 38: Gemzar: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14 104
Table 39: Erbitux: overview 106
Table 40: Erbitux: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14 107
Table 41: Effient: overview 109
Table 42: Effient: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14 110
Table 43: Evista: overview 111
Table 44: Evista: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14 112
Table 45: Eli Lilly's R&D pipeline (Phase I-registration) 113
Table 46: Total Eli Lilly sales by business unit ($m), 2002-08 116
Table 47: Total Eli Lilly sales by business unit ($m), 2008-14 117
Table 48: Exchange rates, 2009 119
List of Figures
Figure 1: The PharmaVitae Explorer 3
Figure 2: Eli Lilly prescription pharmaceutical performance, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2002-14 6
Figure 3: Eli Lilly's financial performance ($m), 2002-14 7
Figure 4: Impact of 'Year XYZ' expiries on Eli Lilly's total pharmaceutical sales 9
Figure 5: Eli Lilly year-on-year pharmaceutical revenue growth split by source, 2008-14 11
Figure 6: Sensitivity of Eli Lilly's pharmaceutical revenue outlook on key assumptions 13
Figure 7: Eli Lilly SWOT analysis 16
Figure 8: M&A/divestment history 32
Figure 9: Current corporate structure 36
Figure 10: Current corporate structure 36
Figure 11: Pharmaceuticals business unit structure 38
Figure 12: Eli Lilly prescription pharmaceutical performance, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2002-14 40
Figure 13: Key product sales ($m), 2002-14 42
Figure 14: Eli Lilly key sales growth drivers and resistors ($m), 2002-08 44
Figure 15: Eli Lilly key sales growth drivers and resistors ($m), 2008-14 47
Figure 16: Eli Lilly prescription pharmaceutical sales by therapy area ($m), 2002-14 49
Figure 17: Eli Lilly prescription pharmaceutical sales by geographic region ($m), 2002-14 53
Figure 18: Eli Lilly launch/core/expiry configuration ($m), 2008-14 64
Figure 19: Eli Lilly prescription pharmaceutical sales by molecule type ($m), 2002-14 65
Figure 20: Eli Lilly prescription pharmaceutical sales by source ($m), 2002-14 67
Figure 21: Eli Lilly operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2002-14 72
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