There is a small and developing defence industry in Malaysia, specialising in explosives, small arms manufacture and shipbuilding. The government is keen to expand the military-industrial base, especially those high-technology areas that may have a civilian use, in line with its Vision 2020 economic development programme. The development of the aerospace sector remains a priority of the Malaysian government, as it seeks substantial technology transfer benefits from all of the major forthcoming defence platforms. The industry itself is currently capable of repairing and maintaining the majority of weapons systems used by the ATM, as well as manufacturing certain items under contract and a variety of parts. Defence R&D facilities in Malaysia are extremely limited.
The death of Osama bin Laden has dealt a huge blow to the psyche of Islamist militants all over the world. His killing after more than 10 years in hiding sends a sharp signal to militant groups worldwide that capture or elimination, no matter how long it takes, is a high probability. However, the reality is that the threat of Islamist militancy did not vanish with bin Laden. It could be argued that the threat could become more acute, as militant groups struggle to demonstrate their continued operational abilities and relevance. We believe that as long as certain structural societal, political, and economic dynamics of Asia fail to improve, South and South East Asia, including Malaysia, will remain ripe for Islamist militancy.
The ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition won both Kerdau and Merlimau state seats in simultaneous by-elections held on March 6. To date, BN has won eight out of the past 16 by-elections since the March 2008 general elections, including all of the six most-recent polls. The latest developments support our view that Prime Minister Najib Razak's rising popularity will compel him to call for an early general election in 2011, in order to obtain a fresh mandate to implement key medium-term programmes such as the US$444bn Economic Transformation Programme (ETP).
Malaysia's Q410 real GDP growth came in at a firm 4.8% y-o-y, slowing slightly from 5.3% y-o-y in Q310. The results were mainly driven by better-than-expected growth out-turn in private consumption, as retail sales recovered strongly, enabling the Malaysian economy to register full-year growth of 7.2% in 2010 (higher than our prior estimate of 6.4%). Other GDP expenditure components were largely in line with expectations, especially with regards to the external sector's underperformance and increasing importance of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) to headline growth.

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Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Malaysia Security SWOT .. 6
Malaysia Defence Industry SWOT 7
Malaysia Political SWOT . 8
Malaysia Economic SWOT .. 9
Malaysia Business Environment SWOT .. 10
Global Political Outlook .. 11
Japan After The Quake 12
Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea 13
Wild Cards To Watch 17
South East Asia Security Overview .. 19
South East Asia In A Global Context 19
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security. 19
Sino-US Rivalry In South East Asia .. 28
The Outlook For South East Asia 30
Security Risk Analysis . 31
BMI’s Security Ratings 31
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings . 31
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index . 32
Malaysia’s Risk Ratings .. 32
City Terrorism Rating .. 33
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index . 34
Political Overview 35
Domestic Politics 35
Long-Term Political Outlook 37
Security Overview .. 42
Internal Security Situation 42
Table: Insurgent Groups . 42
External Security Situation .. 42
Territorial Disputes .. 42
Insurgent And Terrorist Activity . 43
Piracy .. 44
Table: Piracy Attacks And Attempted Attacks, 1996-2006 . 44
Bilateral And Multilateral Relations . 44
Armed Forces And Government Spending . 46
Armed Forces .. 46
Defence Budget 46
Multilateral And Bilateral Defence Relations .. 46
International Deployment .. 47
Weapons Of Mass Destruction . 47
Market Overview .. 49
Industry Trends And Developments .. 50
Arms Trade Overview .. 51
Procurement Trends And Developments . 51
Industry Forecast Scenario 53
Armed Forces .. 53
Table: Malaysia’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 53
Table: Malaysia’s Defence Personnel – Available Manpower For Military Services; 2008-2015 . 53
Defence Expenditure . 53
Table: Malaysia’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015 .. 54
Table: Malaysia’s Defence Expenditure – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn) .. 55
Defence Trade .. 55
Table: Malaysia’s Defence Exports, 2008-2015 (US$mn) . 55
Table: Malaysia’s Defence Imports, 2008-2015 (US$mn) . 56
Table: Malaysia’s Defence Trade Balance, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 56
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 57
Macroeconomic Outlook . 57
Table: Malaysia – Economic Activity, 2008-2015 . 59
Company Profiles 60
AIROD . 60
Composite Technology Research Malaysia (CTRM) 61
Deftech . 62
EADS 63
Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering (MMHE) . 64
SME Ordnance 65
BMI Methodology 66
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 66
Defence Industry . 66
City Terrorism Rating .. 67
Table: Methodology .. 69
Sources 70
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