The latest Malaysia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.19% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, providing 11.09% of supply. Regional oil use of 20.6mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 26.4mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to rise to around 29.6mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 7.6mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 8.0mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase to 8.2mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly as demand growth outstrips the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 18.37mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.3mn b/d by 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
The region consumed around 511.5bn cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas in 2010 and demand of 653.9bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 405.8bcm in 2010 should reach 556.7bcm in 2015, implying net imports falling from around 105.7bcm to 97.2bcm. Malaysia’s share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 6.31%, while its share of production is put at 15.03%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 6.59%, with the country accounting for 13.29% of supply.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.6%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in both the US and Eurozone should be marginally higher than 2010, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will slump to 0.7% as a result of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price forecast for 2011 is US$98.90/bbl for the OPEC basket, giving Brent at US$103/bbl and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at US$92.30, although these differentials are subject to change.
BMI believes Malaysian real GDP increased by 7.2% in 2010, with average annual growth of 4.7% forecast for 2010-2015. State-owned Petronas operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs) under a production sharing system that we believe will result in oil production of 833,000b/d by 2015. Consumption is forecast to rise by up to 2% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 647,000b/d. Malaysia’s gas exports are set to rise from an estimated 30bcm in 2010 to almost 50bcm in 2015, with production climbing from an estimated 70bcm to 85bcm over the period.
Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast a 0.83% decrease in Malaysian oil production, with crude volumes peaking at 914,000b/d in 2015. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 10%, with the country using 697,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 61bcm in 2010 to a possible 87bcm by 2019/20. Demand growth will see export capability peaking at 34.6bcm in 2019, largely in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found later in this report, which provides regional and country-specific projections.
Malaysia is now ranked equal sixth with the Philippines in BMI’s composite Business Environment Ratings (BERs). Its strong showing reflects the country’s fifth place in BMI’s updated upstream ratings, demonstrating a strong resource position and a moderate gas output growth outlook, offset by extensive state involvement. The country is just two points behind PNG, but three points ahead of the Philippines. Malaysia ranks 13th, behind Hong Kong, in BMI’s downstream ratings, reflecting its limited refinery capacity expansion plans, sluggish oil and gas demand growth outlook and relatively high level of retail site intensity.

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SWOT Analysis 9
Malaysia Political SWOT . 9
Malaysia Economic SWOT . 10
Malaysia Business Environment SWOT 11
Malaysia Energy Market Overview . 12
Regional Energy Market Overview . 14
Oil Supply And Demand . 14
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) . 15
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) 16
Oil: Downstream 17
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 17
Gas Supply And Demand . 18
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) 18
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) . 19
Liquefied Natural Gas 20
Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) 20
Business Environment Ratings 21
Asia Pacific Region 21
Composite Scores 22
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating . 22
Upstream Scores . 23
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating. 23
Malaysia Upstream Rating – Overview 24
Malaysia Upstream Rating – Rewards 24
Malaysia Upstream Rating – Risks . 24
Downstream Scores 25
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating . 25
Malaysia Downstream Rating – Overview 26
Malaysia Downstream Rating – Rewards . 26
Malaysia Downstream Rating – Risks. 26
Business Environment . 27
Legal Framework . 27
Infrastructure 28
Labour Force 30
Foreign Investment Policy 31
Tax Regime . 32
Security Risk . 33
Industry Forecast Scenario . 34
Oil And Gas Reserves 34
Oil Supply And Demand . 34
Gas Supply And Demand . 35
LNG . 36
Refining And Oil Products Trade . 37
Revenues/Import Costs. 37
Table: Malaysia Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts 38
Other Energy . 39
Table: Malaysia Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts 42
Key Risks To Forecast Scenario. 43
Long-Term Energy Outlook . 43
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 44
Oil Refineries . 44
Table: Refineries In Malaysia . 44
Service Stations 46
Oil Storage Facilities . 46
Oil Terminals/Ports . 46
Oil Pipelines 47
LNG Terminals 48
Gas To Liquids (GTL) Plants . 49
Gas Pipelines . 49
Macroeconomic Outlook . 51
Table: Malaysia – Economic Activity . 53
Competitive Landscape 54
Executive Summary 54
Table: Key Players – Malaysian Energy Sector 55
Overview/State Role . 55
Licensing And Regulation . 55
Government Policy . 56
International Energy Relations . 57
Table: Key Upstream Players . 60
Table: Key Downstream Players 60
Company Monitor 61
Petroliam Nasional-Bhd (Petronas) . 61
ExxonMobil Sdn Bhd . 65
Shell Malaysia . 68
ConocoPhillips 71
Murphy Oil 73
BP – Summary . 76
LTAT – Summary 76
Chevron – Summary 76
Hess – Summary . 76
Talisman Energy – Summary 76
Gulf Petroleum – Summary . 77
Total – Summary . 77
Newfield Exploration – Summary . 78
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts . 79
Regional Oil Demand 79
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) . 79
Regional Oil Supply . 80
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) 80
Regional Refining Capacity . 81
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 81
Regional Gas Demand . 82
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) 82
Regional Gas Supply 83
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) . 83
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 84
Glossary Of Terms 85
Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings 86
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 86
Ratings Overview . 86
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure 87
Indicators . 87
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology 87
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology . 89
BMI Forecast Modelling 91
How we generate our industry forecasts 91
Energy Industry . 92
Cross checks 92
Sources 92
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