Core Forecasts
In 2010, Malaysia welcomed 24,577,196 tourists, just above BMI’s forecast of 24.56mn for the year. This was an increase of 3.9% year-on-year (y-o-y). There was particularly strong growth in arrivals from the sizeable potential markets of India (up by 17.1% y-o-y), South Korea (up 16.2%) and China (up 10.9%). Tourist revenues for the year totalled MYR56.5bn (US$17.6bn).
Looking at trends so far in 2011, there was a 1% fall in the number of tourists travelling to Malaysia over Q1 according to state news agency Bernama, justifying BMI’s decision earlier in the year to revise down our tourist arrival forecasts for Malaysia. This was based on the expectation that many tourists will choose to visit the new integrated resorts at Sentosa and Marina Bay Sands in neighbouring Singapore instead of coming to Malaysia over the very short term.
Over the summer months, we expect this first-quarter fall in visitor arrival numbers to reverse and for the tourism sector to again show positive growth. BMI remains bullish about the long-term prospects for Malaysian tourism, which continues to benefit from strong government support and a relatively secure and stable political situation. The country offers a range of tourism options, from travel for meetings, incentives, conferences and exhibitions (MICE) to beach holidays, and the government is committed to supporting an industry that is an important generator of foreign exchange.
We forecast a 5% increase in tourist arrivals in 2011 to reach 25.84mn. Beyond 2011, we believe the Malaysian tourism market can continue to show steady growth of 5-6% per annum and we forecast to be the country to be welcoming more than 31.7mn tourists by the end of 2015.
Looking To boost European Tourist Arrivals In May 2011, Tourism Malaysia announced two new promotion strategies aimed at the European market.
In London, the organisation will put advertising on five double-decker buses over a 12-week summer period highlighting the range of biodiversity and other tourism activities available in the country.
Tourism Malaysia also invited 79 travel industry professionals from Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg to visit Sarawak to build on a successful trip to Belgium and the Netherlands by Minister of Tourism Ng Yen Yen in November 2010. The Sarawak trip was intended to present the region as a destination for cultural, adventure, nature and business travel, as well as to help with the creation of appropriate Malaysian holiday packages targeted at the Benelux market.
In 2010, there was a 3.4% increase in the number of Dutch tourists visiting Malaysia, while the number of UK citizens travelling to the country fell by 1.2% y-o-y.
Spotlight On Genting The gaming and hospitality company Genting Malaysia posted strong Q111 results. Total group revenues were up by 45% to MYR1,950.6mn, with pre-tax profits up by 39% to MYR553.5mn. The company has benefited from its recently acquired UK casino business, which contributed MYR346.6mn in revenues, as well as the strong performance of Resorts World Sentosa in Singapore, which generated US$435.1mn in gross earnings in Q1. Resorts World Sentosa has a dominant market share of 55.8% in Singapore, with its rival Marina Bay Sands holding market share of just 44.2% and reporting gross earnings of US$284.5mn for Q111.
Further information on Genting Malaysia (including historic financial data and a SWOT analysis) can be found in the company profiles section of this report. It also contains corporate information and SWOT analyses for Malaysia Airlines and AirAsia.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Malaysia Tourism SWOT 7
Malaysia Political SWOT 8
Malaysia Economic SWOT 9
Malaysia Business Environment SWOT 10
Industry Forecast Scenario 11
Arrivals 11
Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2015 12
Accommodation 13
Table: Hotels Data, 2007-2015 (‘000) 13
Expenditure 13
Table: Expenditure Data, 2007-2015 14
Inbound Tourism 14
Table: Tourist Arrivals By Region, 2007-2015 16
Table: Tourist Arrivals By Country, 2007-2015 (‘000) 16
Outbound Tourism 17
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2007-2015 17
Table: Departures By Destination Country, 2007-2015 (‘000) 18
Market Overview – Travel 20
Commercial Airlines 20
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 21
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl) 22
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) 25
Market Overview – Hospitality 27
Accommodation 27
Health Tourism 28
H1N1 And H5N1 Update 30
Business Environment Outlook 32
Table: Asia Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings 32
BMI’s Security Ratings 33
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings 33
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 34
Malaysia’s Risk Ratings 34
City Terrorism Ratings 35
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index 36
South East Asia Security Overview 37
Currency Forecast 47
Table: BMI’s Malaysia Currency Forecast, 2011-2012 47
Global Assumptions, Q311 49
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 49
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 50
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) 50
Developed States 51
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 52
Emerging Markets 53
Table: Emerging Markets’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 54
Consensus Forecasts 55
Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y) 55
Company Profiles 56
AirAsia 56
Genting Malaysia 58
Malaysia Airlines 60
BMI Methodology 62
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 62
Tourism Industry 62
Tourism Ratings – Methodology 63
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators 64
Table: Weighting of Components 65
City Terrorism Ratings 65
Table: City Terrorism Ratings Methodology 67
Sources 67
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