Market Competitive Intensity (MCI): China

Datamonitor's Market Competitive Intensity Index (MCI) is a robust framework for measuring and benchmarking the development of competitiveness and market conditions in a range of gas and electricity markets. The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push and Customer Pull.

Report Highlights
MCI scores are calculated using two different methods. The first, the simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity. The second, the multiplicative method, is more complex. It prevents markets with an overly wide spread of underlying raw scores from exerting undue influence over, or skewing, the final result. Liberalisation, energy pricing issues and environmental concerns will remain key drivers of gas and power market dynamics throughout the MCI forecast period.
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DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Introduction: Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 2
The MCI Index shows how attractive a particular market is to new entrants in terms of the competitive environment 3
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: market framework, supplier push, customer pull 3
The MCI Index measures the development of 20 diverse Asia Pacific gas and power markets 4
The MCI Index assesses markets in December 2007, and on July 1, 2010, in addition to driving a market switching forecast 4
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 5
Two differing overall MCI scores are calculated to ensure full clarity of results 5
A simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
A weighted multiple (multiplicative) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
The MCI framework has a number of applications for your organization 6
Context: The Chinese energy markets are undergoing a transition from a government controlled to a free market regime 7
The Chinese power market has a strong supplier push factors but weak market framework and customer pull components 7
Over the forecast period the Chinese gas market moves up the rankings of the markets surveyed 8
Power MCI: The Chinese power market has relatively strong supplier push metrics 9
Effectiveness of regulator [2007: 2/10 2010: 3/10] 9
Ease of third party access [2007: 6/10 2010: 7/10] 10
Effectiveness of balancing and data transfer [2007: 6/10 2010: 7/10] 10
A surprisingly high degree of fragmentation exists in the power market 10
Wholesale market fragmentation [2007: 8/10 2010: 9/10] 10
Retail market fragmentation [2007: 5/10 2010: 5/10] 11
Traded market maturity [2007: 1/10 2010: 2/10] 11
China's power sector reforms have been largely been at the supply end, constraining the Customer Pull scores 11
Access to market information and assistance [2007: 2/10 2010: 5/10] 11
Consumer representation [2007: 0/10 2010: 2/10] 11
Propensity to switch [2007: 1/10 2010: 1/10] 11
Gas MCI: Competitive intensity in the gas sector lags that seen in power 12
Lack of clear regulatory policies constrain the Market Framework scores 12
Effectiveness of regulator [2007: 2/10 2010: 3/10] 12
Ease of third party access [2007: 6/10 2010: 7/10] 12
Effectiveness of balancing and data transfer [2007: 1/10 2010: 5/10] 13
Supplier Push factors remain modest throughout the forecast period 13
Wholesale market fragmentation [2007: 2/10 2010: 4/10] 13
Retail market fragmentation [2007: 2/10 2010: 3.5/10] 13
China's Customer Pull metrics are expected to remain modest over the forecast period 14
Access to market information and assistance [2007: 3/10 2010: 4/10] 14
Consumer representation [2007: 0/10 2010: 1/10] 14
Propensity to switch [2007: 1/10 2010: 2/10] 14
Outlook: competitive intensity is likely to remain unchanged in the short term 15
MCI Scores 16
APPENDIX 19
Definitions 19
Ask the analyst 24
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Table 1: Market Competitive Intensity, China 2007-10 16
Table 2: MCI additive, Asia Pacific 2007-2010 17
Table 3: MCI multiplicative, Asia Pacific 2007-2010 18
Figure 1: MCI assessment scale 3
Figure 2: MCI Assessment Framework 3
Figure 3: MCI market coverage 4
Figure 4: MCI scales 5
Figure 5: MCI Applications 6
Figure 6: Asia Pacific power Market Competitive Intensity, 2007-10 7
Figure 7: Asia Pacific gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2007-10 8
Figure 8: Power Market Competitive Intensity Index, China 9
Figure 9: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, China 12
Figure 10: Market Competitive Intensity, China 15
Figure 11: Scale for MCI assessment, effectiveness of regulator 19
Figure 12: Scale for MCI assessment, ease of third party access 20
Figure 13: Scale for MCI assessment, effectiveness of balancing and data transfer 20
Figure 14: Scale for MCI assessment, wholesale market fragmentation 21
Figure 15: Scale for MCI assessment, retail market fragmentation 21
Figure 16: Scale for MCI assessment, traded market maturity 22
Figure 17: Scale for MCI assessment, access to market information and assistance 22
Figure 18: Scale for MCI assessment, consumer representation 23
Figure 19: Scale for MCI assessment, propensity to switch 23
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