Market Competitive Intensity (MCI): Germany

Datamonitor's Market Competitive Intensity Index (MCI) is a robust framework for measuring and benchmarking the development of competitiveness and market conditions in a range of gas and electricty markets. The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push and Customer Pull.

Report Highlights
Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of utility Market Competitive Intensity. MCI scores are calculated using two different methods. The first, the simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity. The second, the multipliative method, is more complex. It prevents markets with an overly wide spread of underlying raw scores from exerting undue influence over, or skewing, the final result.
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DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Introduction: Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 2
The MCI Index shows how attractive a particular market is to new entrants in terms of the competitive environment 2
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull. 3
The MCI Index measures competitive intensity in EU 27 and 6 related markets 4
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2008 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing three years after full market opening 4
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 5
Two differing overall MCI scores are calculated to ensure full clarity of results 5
A simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
A weighted multiple (multiplicative) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
The MCI framework has a number of applications for your organization 6
Context: Market size and corporate activity are key factors driving gas and power competitive intensity 7
Germany's power scores are relatively strong over all metrics other than Propensity to Switch 7
Germany's gas metrics are currently driven by the impact of the new regulator and the lack of concentration in the retail market 7
Power MCI: Most of Germany's power scores are in the upper half of the scale 9
The creation of a regulatory body has revived Germany's Market Framework scores 9
Effectiveness of Regulator [2008: 8/10 2010: 8.5/10] 9
Ease of Third Party Access [2008: 7.5/10 2010: 8/10] 9
Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2008: 5.5/10 2010: 7/10] 10
Improvement can be seen in the Supplier Push metrics 10
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2008: 6/10 2010: 6.5/10] 10
Retail Market Fragmentation [2008: 5/10 2010: 6.5/10] 10
Traded Market Maturity [2008: 8/10 2010: 10/10] 10
Customer Pull metrics are likely to remain low for the foreseeable future 10
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2008: 7.5/10 2010: 8.5/10] 10
Consumer Representation [2008: 7.5/10 2010: 8.5/10] 10
Propensity to Switch [2008: 1.5/10 2010: 2.5/10] 11
Gas MCI: A strong increase in Germany's gas metrics is expected over the forecast period 12
Weaknesses in Germany's Market Framework metrics will be resolved by 2010 12
Effectiveness of Regulator [2008: 8/10 2010: 9/10] 12
Ease of Third Party Access [2008: 6/10 2010: 7.5/10] 13
Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2008: 2/10 2010: 7.5/10] 13
The large number of municipal energy retailers drives the Supplier Push metrics 13
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2008: 3.5/10 2010: 7/10] 13
Retail Market Fragmentation [2008: 8.5/10 2010: 1010] 13
Traded Market Maturity [2008: 3/10 2010: 7.5/10] 13
Germany has generally strong Customer Pull metrics by 2010 14
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2008: 3.5/10 2010: 8/10] 14
Consumer Representation [2008: 8/10 2010: 8/10] 14
Propensity to Switch [2008: 2/10 2010: 4/10] 14
Outlook: The established nature of the market means exploiting commercial opportunities will remain challenging 15
Significant progress is likely to be made in the competitive intensity of the German gas market in the coming two years 15
Power scores 15
Gas scores 15
Mitigating regulatory uncertainty and ensuring cost effective TPA are the key challenges facing entrants to the German power market 16
New Market Entrant Opportunities, Power 16
New Market Entrant Threats, Power 16
Germany's gas market competitive intensity shows a strong improvement over the forecast period 16
New Market Entrant Opportunities, Gas 16
New Market Entrant Threats, Gas 16
MCI Scores 17
APPENDIX 20
Definitions 20
Ask the analyst 25
[Inhaltsverzeichnis ausblenden]

Table 1: Market Competitive Intensity, Germany 2008-10 17
Table 2: MCI Additive, Europe 2008-2010 18
Table 3: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2008-2010 19
Figure 1: MCI Assessment Scale 2
Figure 2: MCI Assessment Framework 3
Figure 3: MCI Market Coverage 4
Figure 4: MCI Scales 5
Figure 5: MCI Applications 6
Figure 6: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2008-08 7
Figure 7: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2008-08 8
Figure 8: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Germany 9
Figure 9: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Germany 12
Figure 10: Market Competitive Intensity, Germany 15
Figure 11: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 20
Figure 12: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 21
Figure 13: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer 21
Figure 14: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 22
Figure 15: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 22
Figure 16: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 23
Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information and Assistance 23
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 24
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch 24
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