Market Competitive Intensity (MCI): Hungary

Datamonitor's Market Competitive Intensity Index (MCI) is a robust framework for measuring and benchmarking the development of competitiveness and market conditions in a range of gas and electricty markets. The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push and Customer Pull.

Report Highlights
Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of utility Market Competitive Intensity. MCI scores are calculated using two different methods. The first, the simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity. The second, the multipliative method, is more complex. It prevents markets with an overly wide spread of underlying raw scores from exerting undue influence over, or skewing, the final result.
[Studien Infos ausblenden]

DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Introduction: Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 2
The MCI Index shows how attractive a particular market is to new entrants in terms of the competitive environment 2
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull. 3
The MCI Index measures competitive intensity in EU 27 and 6 related markets 4
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2008 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing three years after full market opening 4
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 5
Two differing overall MCI scores are calculated to ensure full clarity of results 5
A simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
A weighted multiple (multiplicative) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
The MCI framework has a number of applications for your organization 6
Context: Both the gas and power scores in Hungary hover around the middle position of the markets surveyed 7
Hungary's power position remains in the centre range of markets surveyed 7
Hungary's gas position remains unchanged relative to the other markets surveyed over the forecast period 7
Power MCI: Hungary's overall power score is constrained by parts of the Customer Pull metric 9
Development of the Market Framework metrics remains modest both at the current time and in the near term future 9
Effectiveness of Regulator [2008: 6.5/10 2010: 6.5/10] 9
Ease of Third Party Access [2008: 7/10 2010: 8/10] 10
Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2008: 4/10 2010: 5/10] 10
Hungary's Supplier Push metrics are constrained by the dominance of MVM in the wholesale arena and the lack of a traded market 10
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2008: 4.5/10 2010: 5/10] 10
Retail Market Fragmentation [2008: 6.5/10 2010: 7/10] 10
Traded Market Maturity [2008: 1/10 2010: 2.5/10] 11
Customer Pull metrics are driven by the levels of switching seen in the non-residential market and future residential switching 11
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2008: 2/10 2010: 3/10] 11
Consumer Representation [2008: 2.5/10 2010: 4/10] 11
Propensity to Switch [2008: 3.5/10 2010: 5/10] 11
Gas MCI: Strong Market Framework factors support the overall gas score and offset weakness in other metrics 12
All of Hungary's Market Framework factors achieve scores at the upper end of the scale 12
Effectiveness of Regulator [2008: 6.5/10 2010: 8/10] 12
Ease of Third Party Access [2008: 6.6/10 2010: 8/10] 13
Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2008: 7/10 2010: 8/10] 13
Supplier Push metrics remain constrained during the forecast period as a legacy of pre-liberalization market dynamics 13
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2008: 1/10 2010: 2/10] 13
Retail Market Fragmentation [2008: 4/10 2010: 4.5/10] 13
Traded Market Maturity [2008: 0/10 2010: 1/10] 14
None of the Customer Pull metrics move past their current low levels by the end of the forecast period 14
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2008: 1/10 2010: 2/10] 14
Consumer Representation [2008: 1.5/10 2010: 2/10] 14
Propensity to Switch [2008: 2.3/10 2010: 4.7/10] 14
Outlook: Near term power sector commercial opportunities are largely in the generation part of the value chain 15
Development in competitive intensity in the Hungarian gas market will continue to lag behind that seen in the electricity market 15
Power scores 15
Gas scores 15
Short term commercial opportunities in the Hungarian electricity market remain extremely limited 16
New Market Entrant Opportunities, Power 16
New Market Entrant Threats, Power 16
High levels of gas penetration and the role of existing players significantly curtail opportunities in the Hungarian gas market 16
New Market Entrant Opportunities, Gas 16
New Market Entrant Threats, Gas 17
MCI Scores 18
APPENDIX 21
Definitions 21
Ask the analyst 26
[Inhaltsverzeichnis ausblenden]

Table 1: Market Competitive Intensity, Hungary 2008-10 18
Table 2: MCI Additive, Europe 2008-2010 19
Table 3: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2008-2010 20
Figure 1: MCI Assessment Scale 2
Figure 2: MCI Assessment Framework 3
Figure 3: MCI Market Coverage 4
Figure 4: MCI Scales 5
Figure 5: MCI Applications 6
Figure 6: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2008-10 7
Figure 7: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2008-10 8
Figure 8: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Hungary 9
Figure 9: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Hungary 12
Figure 10: Market Competitive Intensity, Hungary 15
Figure 11: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 21
Figure 12: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 22
Figure 13: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer 22
Figure 14: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 23
Figure 15: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 23
Figure 16: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 24
Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information and Assistance 24
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 25
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch 25
[Tabellenverzeichnis ausblenden]