Market Competitive Intensity (MCI): Indonesia

Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of utility Market Competitive Intensity. The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull.

Report Highlights
MCI scores are calculated using two different methods. The first, the simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity. The second, the multiplicative method, is more complex. It prevents markets with an overly wide spread of underlying raw scores from exerting undue influence over, or skewing, the final result. Liberalisation, energy pricing issues and environmental concerns will remain key drivers of gas and power market dynamics throughout the MCI forecast period.
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DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Introduction: Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 2
The MCI Index shows how attractive a particular market is to new entrants in terms of the competitive environment 3
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: market framework, supplier push, customer pull 3
The MCI Index measures the development of 20 Asia Pacific gas and power markets 4
The MCI Index assesses markets in December 2007, and on July 1, 2010, in addition to driving a market switching forecast 4
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 5
Two differing overall MCI scores are calculated to ensure full clarity of results 5
A simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
A weighted multiple (multiplicative) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
The MCI framework has a number of applications for your organization 6
Context: Competitive intensity remains very modest throughout the forecast period 7
Indonesia is currently the least competitively intense market in this analysis 7
Indonesia's gas market competitive intensity will continue to outstrip that seen in the power sector 8
Power MCI: Indonesia's power scores remain weak across all metric groups 9
Lack of a dedicated regulator for the power sector, absence of third party access and a balancing regime puts the market framework score in the lower metrics 9
Effectiveness of regulator (2007 - 2.5/10, 2010 - 5/10) 9
Ease of third party access (2007-1/10, 2010 - 3/10) 10
Effectiveness of balancing and data transfer (2007- 1/10, 2010 - 2/10) 10
Supplier Push metrics do little to support the overall score 10
Wholesale market fragmentation (2007 - 4/10, 2010 -5.5 /10) 10
Retail market fragmentation (2007 - 0.5/10, 2010 - 2/10) 10
Traded market maturity (2007 -0/10, 2010 - 0.5/10) 10
Customer Pull metrics remain weak over the forecast period 11
Access to market information and assistance (2007- 1/10, 2010- 1.5/10) 11
Consumer representation (2007- 2/10, 2010- 2/10) 11
Propensity to switch (2007- 0/10, 2010- 2.5/10) 11
Gas MCI: Gas competitive intensity will remain modest over the forecast period 12
An undeveloped balancing regime curtails the Market Framework scores 12
Effectiveness of regulator (2007 - 7/10, 2010 - 8/10) 12
Ease of third party access (2007- 7/10, 2010 - 8/10) 13
Effectiveness of balancing and data transfer (2007- 1/10, 2010 - 2/10) 13
The existence of a developed upstream sector drives the Supplier Push metrics 13
Wholesale market fragmentation (2007 - 6/10, 2010 - 7.5/10) 13
Retail market fragmentation (2007 - 1/10, 2010 - 1.5/10) 13
Traded market maturity (2007 - 1 /10, 2010 -1.5/10) 13
Customer Pull metrics remain modest 13
Access to market information and assistance (2007- 1/10, 2010- 2/10) 13
Consumer representation (2007-4/10, 2010- 4.5/10) 14
Propensity to switch (2007- 1/10, 2010- 1.5/10) 14
Outlook: Despite market reforms competitive intensity will remain limited 15
MCI Scores 16
APPENDIX 19
Definitions 19
Ask the analyst 24
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Table 1: Market Competitive Intensity, Indonesia 2007-10 16
Table 2: MCI additive, Asia Pacific 2007-2010 17
Table 3: MCI multiplicative, Asia Pacific 2007-2010 18
Figure 1: MCI assessment scale 3
Figure 2: MCI assessment framework 3
Figure 3: MCI market coverage 4
Figure 4: MCI scales 5
Figure 5: MCI applications 6
Figure 6: Asia Pacific power Market Competitive Intensity, 2007-10 7
Figure 7: Asia Pacific gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2007-10 8
Figure 8: Power Market Competitive Intensity Index, Indonesia 9
Figure 9: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Indonesia 12
Figure 10: Market Competitive Intensity, Indonesia 15
Figure 11: Scale for MCI assessment, effectiveness of regulator 19
Figure 12: Scale for MCI assessment, ease of third party access 20
Figure 13: Scale for MCI assessment, effectiveness of balancing and data transfer 20
Figure 14: Scale for MCI assessment, wholesale market fragmentation 21
Figure 15: Scale for MCI assessment, retail market fragmentation 21
Figure 16: Scale for MCI assessment, traded market maturity 22
Figure 17: Scale for MCI assessment, access to market information and assistance 22
Figure 18: Scale for MCI assessment, consumer representation 23
Figure 19: Scale for MCI assessment, propensity to switch 23
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