DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Introduction: Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 2
The MCI Index shows how attractive a particular market is to new entrants in terms of the competitive environment 2
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull. 3
The MCI Index measures the development of 33 diverse European gas and power markets 4
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2008 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing three years after full market opening 4
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 5
Two differing overall MCI scores are calculated to ensure full clarity of results 5
A simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
A weighted multiple (multiplicative) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
The MCI framework has a number of applications for your organization 6
Context: Whilst both the Irish metrics improve over the forecast period, a particularly strong improvement occurs in the power metric 7
The change in Ireland's power score over the forecast period gives it a slight upward movement in the rankings over the forecast period 7
Despite being a small gas market, Ireland achieves a high ranking within the markets surveyed 7
Power MCI: Ireland's power score is driven by the Market Framework and Supplier Push metrics 9
Market Framework metrics generally score highly and are likely to further improve by 2010 9
Effectiveness of Regulator [2008: 5.5/10 2010: 7.5/10] 9
Ease of Third Party Access [2008: 3.4/10 2010: 7/10] 10
Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2008: 5.3/10 2010: 6.7/10] 10
The Supplier Push metrics remains at a moderate level, however we expect this to improve by 2010 10
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2008: 2.8/10 2010: 5.5/10] 10
Retail Market Fragmentation [2008: 3.4/10 2010: 7/10] 10
Traded Market Maturity [2008: 0/10 2010: 4/10] 11
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2008: 2.3/10 2010: 4/10] 11
Consumer Representation [2008: 1.5/10 2010: 3.5/10] 11
Propensity to Switch [2008: 5.8/10 2010: 7/10] 11
Gas MCI: A strong Market Framework score serves to offset weakness in some of the other metrics 12
Ireland's gas Market Framework remains at the upper end of the scale during forecasted period 12
Effectiveness of Regulator [2008: 7/10 2010: 8/10] 12
Ease of Third Party Access [2008: 8.5/10 2010: 9/10] 13
Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2008: 8.5/10 2010: 9/10] 13
Development of Traded market may drag the score up from the current level 13
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2008: 2.5/10 2010: 3.5/10] 13
Retail Market Fragmentation [2008: 3.5/10 2010: 5.5/10] 13
Traded Market Maturity [2008: 8/10 2010: 9/10] 14
Customer Pull metrics remain at moderate levels by 2010 14
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2008: 4/10 2010: 5.5/10] 14
Consumer Representation [2008: 2.5/10 2010: 3/10] 14
Propensity to Switch [2008: 5.4/10 2010: 5.4/10] 14
Outlook: Both Power and Gas market create significant commercial opportunities for new entrants 15
In spite of being in its relative infancy, the Irish gas market is at a similar stage of competitiveness to the power market 15
Power scores 15
Gas scores 15
Despite a favorable TPA regime, new entrants may face difficulties in obtaining adequate power supplies 16
New Market Entrant Opportunities, Power 16
New Market Entrant Threats, Power 16
The issues facing new entrants to the Irish gas market are similar to those facing entrants to the power market 16
New Market Entrant Opportunities, Gas 16
New Market Entrant Threats, Gas 16
MCI Scores 17
APPENDIX 20
Definitions 20
Ask the analyst 25
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