DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Introduction: Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 2
The MCI Index shows how attractive a particular market is to new entrants in terms of the competitive environment 3
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: market framework, supplier push, customer pull 3
The MCI Index measures the development of 20 Asia Pacific gas and power markets 4
The MCI Index assesses markets in December 2007, and on July 1, 2010, in addition to driving a market switching forecast 4
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 5
Two differing overall MCI scores are calculated to ensure full clarity of results 5
A simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
A weighted multiple (multiplicative) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
The MCI framework has a number of applications for your organization 6
Context: Both the Japanese gas and power markets score towards the upper end of the competitive intensity scale 7
The Japanese power market loses one place in the rankings over the forecast period 7
The Japanese gas market declines in the rankings over the forecast period 8
Power MCI: the Japanese power market has strong Market Framework and Supplier Push metrics 9
All of Japan's Market Framework factors score at the upper end of the scale 9
Effectiveness of regulator [2007: 7/10 2010: 8/10] 9
Ease of third party access [2007: 5/10 2010: 7/10] 10
Effectiveness of balancing and data transfer [2007: 6/10 2010: 8/10] 10
Supplier Push factors all score at the upper end of the scale 10
Wholesale market fragmentation [2007: 9/10 2010: 9/10] 10
Retail market fragmentation [2007: 9/10 2010: 9/10] 10
Traded market maturity [2007: 10/10 2010:10/10] 10
Weak Customer Pull metrics are unlikely to develop during the forecast period 10
Access to market information and assistance [2007: 2/10 2010: 2/10] 10
Consumer access to market information outside of the regulatory body remains very limited, with little improvement expected over the forecast period. 10
Consumer representation [2007: 0/10 2010: 2/10] 10
Propensity to switch [2007: 3/10 2010: 5/10] 10
Gas MCI: Weak Customer Pull metrics curtail the Japanese gas competitive intensity score 11
Regulatory effectiveness leads the Japanese Market Framework scores 11
Effectiveness of regulator [2007: 8/10 2010: 9/10] 11
Ease of third party access [2007: 5/10 2010: 7/10] 12
The Gas Utility Industry Laws were amended in June 2003 and came into effect in April 2004, with the purpose of expanding the large volume gas market and allowing Third Party Access. Under the third party access protocol, all companies owning or operating gas pipelines are required to allow TPA. All of these companies were also required to prepare and publish statements of their transportation terms, as well as notifying the authorities on new developments. 12
Effectiveness of balancing and data transfer [2007: 1/10 2010: 3/10] 12
The Japanese balancing regime remains rudimentary with significant scope for development. 12
Fragmentation in the wholesale and retail markets leads to a strong Supplier Push score 12
Wholesale market fragmentation [2007: 7/10 2010: 7/10] 12
Retail market fragmentation [2007: 7/10 2010: 7/10] 12
Customer Pull metrics remain weak over the forecast period 12
Access to market information and assistance [2007: 1/10 2010: 2/10] 12
Consumer representation [2007: 0/10 2010: 1/10] 12
Propensity to switch [2007: 0/10 2010: 1/10] 13
Outlook: Gas market competitive intensity will continue to lag far behind that seen in the power sector 14
MCI Scores 15
APPENDIX 18
Definitions 18
Ask the analyst 23
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Market Competitive Intensity, Japan 2007-10 15
Table 2: MCI Additive, Asia-Pacific 2007-2010 16
Table 3: MCI Multiplicative, Asia Pacific 2007-2010 17
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