Market Competitive Intensity (MCI): Poland

Datamonitor's Market Competitive Intensity Index (MCI) is a robust framework for measuring and benchmarking the development of competitiveness and market conditions in a range of gas and electricty markets. The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push and Customer Pull.

Report Highlights
Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of utility Market Competitive Intensity. MCI scores are calculated using two different methods. The first, the simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity. The second, the multipliative method, is more complex. It prevents markets with an overly wide spread of underlying raw scores from exerting undue influence over, or skewing, the final result.
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DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Introduction: Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 2
The MCI Index shows how attractive a particular market is to new entrants in terms of the competitive environment 2
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull. 3
The MCI Index measures competitive intensity in EU 27 and 6 related markets 4
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2008 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing three years after full market opening 4
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 5
Two differing overall MCI scores are calculated to ensure full clarity of results 5
A simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
A weighted multiple (multiplicative) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
The MCI framework has a number of applications for your organization 6
Context: Poland's gas and power position remains clustered with the least competitive markets surveyed 7
Poland's power ranking changes only slightly over the forecast period 7
Poland's gas ranking remains constant over the forecast period 7
Power MCI: Poland's power market achieves an average score overall 9
Market Framework scores will remain modest in 2010 9
Effectiveness of Regulator [2008: 3/10 2010: 5/10] 9
Ease of Third Party Access [2008: 3.5/10 2010: 5/10] 9
Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2008: 2/10 2010: 5/10] 10
Supplier Push metrics likely to improve by 2010 10
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2008: 4.5/10 2010: 6/10] 10
Retail Market Fragmentation [2008: 9/10 2010: 10/10] 10
Traded Market Maturity [2008: 2.3/10 2010: 4.5/10] 10
Customer Pull metrics are very much at the lower end of the scale and are likely to remain so in July 2010 11
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2008: 3/10 2010: 4/10] 11
Consumer Representation [2008: 2/10 2010: 4/10] 11
Propensity to Switch [2008: 2/10 2010: 3.5/10] 11
Gas MCI: Poland's Customer Pull metrics remain low during the forecast period 12
None of the Market Framework metrics increase their scores significantly between now and 2010 12
Effectiveness of Regulator [2008: 3/10 2010: 4/10] 12
Ease of Third Party Access [2008: 2/10 2010: 3/10] 13
Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2008: 5/10 2010: 5.5/10] 13
A lack of access to wholesale gas supplies constrains Poland's Supplier Push scores 13
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2008: 1.5/10 2010: 2/10] 13
Retail Market Fragmentation [2008: 4.5/10 2010: 5.5/10] 13
Traded Market Maturity [2008: 0/10 2010: 1.5/10] 13
Customer Pull metrics also remains at the lower end of the scale by 2010 13
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2008: 0.5/10 2010: 2/10] 13
Consumer Representation [2008: 1.5/10 2010: 2.5/10] 14
Propensity to Switch [2008: 1/10 2010: 2/10] 14
Outlook: Opportunities in the Polish gas market lag those potentially available in the power market 15
There is a degree of diversity between the levels of competitive intensity in the Polish gas and power markets 15
Power scores 15
Gas scores 15
Growing environmental pressures are creating strong commercial opportunities for generators 16
New Market Entrant Opportunities, Power 16
New Market Entrant Threats, Power 16
Supply constrains for gas are just one of the many reasons why the Polish gas market is an unattractive option for new entrants 16
New Market Entrant Opportunities, Gas 16
New Market Entrant Threats, Gas 16
MCI Scores 17
APPENDIX 20
Definitions 20
Ask the analyst 25
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Table 1: Market Competitive Intensity, Poland 2008-10 17
Table 2: MCI Additive, Europe 2008-2010 18
Table 3: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2008-2010 19
Figure 1: MCI Assessment Scale 2
Figure 2: MCI Assessment Framework 3
Figure 3: MCI Market Coverage 4
Figure 4: MCI Scales 5
Figure 5: MCI Applications 6
Figure 6: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2008-10 7
Figure 7: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2008-10 8
Figure 8: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Poland 9
Figure 9: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Poland 12
Figure 10: Market Competitive Intensity, Poland 15
Figure 11: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 20
Figure 12: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 21
Figure 13: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer 21
Figure 14: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 22
Figure 15: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 22
Figure 16: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 23
Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information and Assistance 23
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 24
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch 24
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