Market Competitive Intensity (MCI): Queensland, Australia

Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of utility Market Competitive Intensity. The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull.

Report Highlights
MCI scores are calculated using two different methods. The first, the simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity. The second, the multiplicative method, is more complex. It prevents markets with an overly wide spread of underlying raw scores from exerting undue influence over, or skewing, the final result.

Liberalisation, energy pricing issues and environmental concerns will remain key drivers of gas and power market dynamics throughout the MCI forecast period.
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DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Introduction: Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 2
The MCI Index shows how attractive a particular market is to new entrants in terms of the competitive environment 3
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: market framework, supplier push, customer pull 3
The MCI index measures the development of 20 Asia Pacific gas and power markets 4
The MCI Index assesses markets in December 2007, and on July 1, 2010, in addition to driving a market switching forecast 4
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 5
Two differing overall MCI scores are calculated to ensure full clarity of results 5
A simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
A weighted multiple (multiplicative) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
The MCI framework has a number of applications for your organization 6
Context: Uniform regulation by the AER will lead Queensland further towards a competitive energy market 7
Queensland's power market ranking shows improvement over the forecast period 7
In common with the power market, Queensland's gas metrics all show improvement during the forecast period 8
Power MCI: Consumer awareness and switching are still to develop 9
All the pillars of market framework remain in the upper half of the scale 9
Effectiveness of regulator (2007 - 7/10, 2010 - 9/10) 9
Ease of third Party access (2007- 7/10, 2010 - 9/10) 10
Effectiveness of balancing and data transfer (2007- 9.5/10, 2010 - 10/10) 10
The Supplier Push metrics are constrained by retail market concentration 11
Wholesale market fragmentation (2007 - 8.5/10, 2010 - 9/10) 11
Retail market fragmentation (2007 - 2/10, 2010 - 5/10) 11
Electricity in Queensland is distributed to more than 1.8 million industrial, commercial, and domestic consumers. These consumers are serviced by Energex in south east Queensland, Ergon Energy in rural and regional Queensland, and Country Energy, which is a New South Wales distributor that supplies a small area in south-west Queensland. 11
Traded market maturity (2007 - 9/10, 2010 - 10/10) 11
Queensland has a weak consumer pull 11
Access to market information and assistance (2007- 2/10, 2010- 8/10) 11
Consumer representation (2007- 5/10, 2010- 8/10) 11
Propensity to switch (2007- 1/10, 2010- 2/10) 12
Gas MCI: Queensland's gas score is constrained by weak customer pull metrics 13
Queensland market framework scores remain in the higher band 13
Effectiveness of regulator (2007 - 7/10, 2010 -9/10) 13
Ease of third party access (2007- 7/10, 2010 - 10/10) 14
Effectiveness of balancing and data transfer (2007- 6/10, 2010 - 7/10) 14
The Supplier Push metrics continue to develop over the forecast period 14
Wholesale market fragmentation (2007 - 2/10, 2010 - 3/10) 14
Retail market fragmentation (2007 - 5/10, 2010 - 7.5/10) 14
Traded market maturity (2007 - 1/10, 2010 -2 /10) 15
Customer Pull metrics remain modest 15
Access to market information and assistance (2007- 2/10, 2010- 3/10) 15
Consumer representation (2007-3/10, 2010- 7/10) 15
Propensity to switch (2007- 0/10, 2010- 2.5/10) 15
Outlook: Both the gas and power markets provide commercial opportunities for new entrants 16
MCI Scores 17
APPENDIX 20
Definitions 20
Ask the analyst 25
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Market Competitive Intensity, Queensland 2007-10 17
Table 2: MCI additive, Asia Pacific 2007-2010 18
Table 3: MCI multiplicative, Asia Pacific 2007-2010 19
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Table 1: Market Competitive Intensity, Queensland 2007-10 17
Table 2: MCI additive, Asia Pacific 2007-2010 18
Table 3: MCI multiplicative, Asia Pacific 2007-2010 19
Figure 1: MCI assessment scale 3
Figure 2: MCI Assessment Framework 3
Figure 3: MCI market coverage 4
Figure 4: MCI scales 5
Figure 5: MCI Applications 6
Figure 6: Asia Pacific power Market Competitive Intensity, 2007-10 7
Figure 7: Asia Pacific gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2007-10 8
Figure 8: Power Market Competitive Intensity Index, Queensland 9
Figure 9: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Queensland 13
Figure 10: Market Competitive Intensity, Queensland 16
Figure 11: Scale for MCI assessment, effectiveness of regulator 20
Figure 12: Scale for MCI assessment, ease of third party access 21
Figure 13: Scale for MCI assessment, effectiveness of balancing and data transfer 21
Figure 14: Scale for MCI assessment, wholesale market fragmentation 22
Figure 15: Scale for MCI assessment, retail market fragmentation 22
Figure 16: Scale for MCI assessment, traded market maturity 23
Figure 17: Scale for MCI assessment, access to market information and assistance 23
Figure 18: Scale for MCI assessment, consumer representation 24
Figure 19: Scale for MCI assessment, propensity to switch 25
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