Market Competitive Intensity (MCI): Russia

Datamonitor's Market Competitive Intensity Index (MCI) is a robust framework for measuring and benchmarking the development of competitiveness and market conditions in a range of gas and electricty markets. The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push and Customer Pull.

Report Highlights
Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of utility Market Competitive Intensity. MCI scores are calculated using two different methods. The first, the simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity. The second, the multipliative method, is more complex. It prevents markets with an overly wide spread of underlying raw scores from exerting undue influence over, or skewing, the final result.
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DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Introduction: Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 2
The MCI Index shows how attractive a particular market is to new entrants in terms of the competitive environment 2
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull. 3
The MCI Index measures competitive intensity in the EU 27 and 6 related markets 4
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2008 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing three years after full market opening 4
The MCI Index offers an assessment of competitive intensity in January 2008 and a forecast for July 2010 - three years after full market opening took place in the EU states. 4
Two differing overall MCI scores are calculated to ensure full clarity of results 5
A simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
A weighted multiple (multiplicative) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
The MCI framework has a number of applications for your organization 6
Context: Both Russia's gas and power markets remain very much at the lower end of the scale of the markets surveyed 7
Russia's power score and ranking increases significantly over the forecast period 7
The increase in score over the forecast period allows Russia to climb two positions in the gas rankings 7
Power MCI: Russia's power score is driven by strong Supplier Push metrics 9
Other than possible changes in the balancing regime, the Market Framework metrics will remain at the lower end of the scale 9
Effectiveness of Regulator [2008: 2/10 2010: 5/10] 9
Ease of Third Party Access [2008: 0/10 2010: 4/10] 10
Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2008: 3/10 2010: 7/10] 10
Ongoing market reform will drive the Supplier Push factors considerably higher by the end of the forecast period 10
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2008: 3.5/10 2010: 9/10] 10
Retail Market Fragmentation [2008: 3/10 2010: 8/10] 10
Traded Market Maturity [2008: 3/10 2010: 8/10] 10
Current market dynamics mean that the power Customer Pull metrics have no scope to remain anything other than very limited 10
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2008: 0/10 2010: 2.5/10] 10
Consumer Representation [2008: 0/10 2010: 1/10] 10
Propensity to Switch [2008: 3/10 2010: 5/10] 11
Gas MCI: Russia's gas scores are consistently low across all metrics 12
Russia's Market Framework factors all score at the lower end of the scale with little improvement likely to be seen by 2010 12
Effectiveness of Regulator [2008: 2/10 2010: 3/10] 12
Ease of Third Party Access [2008: 0/10 2010: 2.5/10] 13
Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2008:1/10 2010: 4/10] 13
None of the factors making up the Supplier Push metrics will develop significantly by 2010 13
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2008: 1/10 2010: 3/10] 13
Retail Market Fragmentation [2008: 1/10 2010: 3/10] 13
Traded Market Maturity [2008: 2/10 2010: 3.5/10] 13
Current market dynamics mean that the gas Customer Pull metrics have no scope to remain anything other than very limited 14
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2008: 0/10 2010: 2/10] 14
Consumer Representation [2008: 0/10 2010: 2/10] 14
Propensity to Switch [2008: 1/10 2010: 3/10] 14
Outlook: The nature of the Russian energy markets mean that new market entrants are only likely to target the upstream gas sector 15
At the end of the forecast period Russia's power market will show significantly more competitive intensity than the gas market 15
Power scores 15
Gas scores 15
The reform of RAO UES potentially creates commercial opportunities for new players to enter the Russian market 16
New Market Entrant Opportunities, Power 16
New Market Entrant Threats, Power 16
The dominance of Gazprom means that only marginal opportunities exist in the short to medium term in the Russian gas market 16
New Market Entrant Opportunities, Gas 16
New Market Entrant Threats, Gas 16
MCI Scores 17
APPENDIX 20
Definitions 20
Ask the analyst 25
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Table 1: Market Competitive Intensity, Russia 2008-10 17
Table 2: MCI Additive, Europe 2008-2010 18
Table 3: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2008-2010 19
Figure 1: MCI Assessment Scale 2
Figure 2: MCI Assessment Framework 3
Figure 3: MCI Market Coverage 4
Figure 4: MCI Scales 5
Figure 5: MCI Applications 6
Figure 6: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2008-10 7
Figure 7: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2008-10 8
Figure 8: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Russia 9
Figure 9: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Russia 12
Figure 10: Market Competitive Intensity, Russia 15
Figure 11: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 20
Figure 12: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 21
Figure 13: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer 21
Figure 14: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 22
Figure 15: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 22
Figure 16: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 23
Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information and Assistance 23
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 24
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch 24
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